CFW Week 13 Forecast - Three coaches fired, one retired

 CFW Week 13 Forecast – Three coaches fired, one retired

Will Indiana and Army

remain undefeated?

 

There are several good games this week, but three in particular take the prize. The results of all three will have a major impact on the CFP rankings. Undefeated seasons are on the line in two of the three games. One of the three games will determine who plays Oregon in the Big Ten championship game. And one of the three games will either clear up or cloud up the race for the Big 12 championship.

 

The games are No. 5 Indiana (10-0) at No. 2 Ohio State (9-1), No. 19 Army (9-0) at No. 6 Notre Dame (9-1) and No. 14 BYU (9-1) at No. 21 Arizona State (8-2).

 

The winner of the Indiana-Ohio State game will meet Oregon in the Big Ten championship game on December 7. If Indiana loses, the Hoosiers will not only have their first loss, but also, the Hoosiers risk falling out of the 12-team playoff field. If Ohio State loses, the Buckeyes will remain in the playoff field.

 

A lot is up in the air, pending the results of the Army-Notre Dame game. Should Army upset Notre Dame, the Cadets will not only remain undefeated at (10-0), but also, the Cadets could move ahead of No. 12 Boise State as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. That would put Army in the 12-team playoff field – for the time being at least. Should Army lose to Notre Dame, there is still some hope for the Cadets. Army will have to win-out, beating UTSA and Navy. Then the Cadets need to win the AAC championship game – beating Tulane. Then it all comes down to how the MWC championship game plays out. If Notre Dame beats Army, the Irish remain solid in the CFP rankings. If Notre Dame loses to Army, the Irish would most likely fall out of the 12-team playoff field.

 

Then there is BYU-Arizona State. Should BYU beat Arizona State, the Cougars will remain in the 12-team playoff field and all but secure a spot in the Big 12 championship game on December 8. Arizona State would be eliminated from playing in the Big 12 championship game. If, however, Arizona State beats BYU, then Colorado, for the time being at least, moves into the 12-team playoff field – assuming the Buffaloes beat Kansas this weekend. But Arizona State remains in strong contention to play in the Big 12 championship game and remains alive to make the 12-team playoff field. It’s all very complicated. As I said, the Big 12 picture will either clear up or cloud up.

 

In addition to Indiana-Ohio State, there are some other key Big Ten games this weekend. For starters, there is No. 4 Penn State (9-1) at Minnesota (6-4). This could be a difficult game for the Nittany Lions. If Penn State loses, the Nitts would most likely fall out of the 12-team playoff field.

 

Two other curious games in the Big Ten are Wisconsin (5-5) at Nebraska (5-5) and No. 25 Illinois (7-3) at Rutgers (6-4). Wisconsin and Nebraska are struggling to become bowl eligible. One of them will become bowl eligible on Saturday. Illinois-Rutgers should be a good battle.

 

Besides, BYU-Arizona State, there are three other interesting games in the Big 12. To begin, how about No. 16 Colorado (8-2) at Kansas (4-6). The Jayhawks came to life last week and beat BYU at BYU. Kansas is home this week. Is Colorado in trouble?

 

Two other curious games in the Big 12 are UCF (4-6) at West Virginia (5-5) and Cincinnati (5-5) at No. 22 Iowa State (8-2). UCF and West Virginia are hoping to become bowl eligible. The Mountaineers could reach that plateau on Saturday. Iowa State is still in the running for the Big 12 championship game. Cincinnati is a tricky team.

 

Conference USA has two cracker jack games – Sam Houston (8-2) at Jacksonville State (7-3) and Western Kentucky (7-3) at Liberty (7-2). Therse are the four top teams in C-USA and all four are in the running for the C-USA championship game.

 

The two best games in the ACC are No. 13 SMU (9-1) at Virginia (5-5) and Pitt (7-3) at Louisville (6-4). SMU is in the driver’s seat to play in the ACC championship game. The Mustangs are also knocking on the door to become a playoff team. Virginia can be dangerous, especially in Charlottesville. Pitt and Louisville are out of the race for the ACC championship. Both are playing for a better bowl game.

 

Interestingly, there are several other intriguing games involving ACC teams – Connecticut (7-3) at Syracuse (7-3), North Carolina (6-4) at Boston College (5-5), Virginia Tech (5-5) at Duke (7-3) and NC State (5-5) at Georgia Tech (6-4).

 

UConn-Syracuse is an interconference game. Both teams are playing well. North Carolina wants to send Mack Brown out a winner. Bill O’Brien has Boston College playing tough. Duke has had a great season under first-year coach Manny Diaz. The Blue Devils want to keep it that way. Virginia Tech has had a disappointing season, but the Hokies could finish strong. Like the Hokies, NC State has had a disappointing season. Georgia Tech has been a bit of a surprise, especially when the Yellow Jackets beat Miami. Boston College, Virginia Tech and NC State are all trying to become bowl eligible.

 

The two top games in the SEC are No. 9 Ole Miss (8-2) at Florida (5-5) and No. 7 Alabama (8-2) at Oklahoma (5-5). Florida seems to have found itself. Can the Gators knock off Ole Miss? Oklahoma has had a bad season, but at home, the Sooners would love to surprise Alabama. Not likely, but you never know.

 

A third interesting game in the SEC is Vanderbilt (6-4) at LSU (6-4). Vanderbilt seems to have run out of steam. LSU is a frustrated team. Can Vandy do it?

 

And finally, out in the MWC, No. 24 UNLV (8-2) at San Jose State (6-4) is a key game in that conference. UNLV is competing against Colorado State and Boise State to make the MWC championship game. San Jose State could spoil things. The Spartans are capable.

 

It’s going to be an exciting weekend. Enjoy the games!

 

Florida Atlantic head coach Tom Herman was fired on Monday. Herman was in his second season with the Owls. During his two seasons at FAU, Herman was 6-16 – 2-8 this season (0-6 in AAC play). Assistant coach Chad Lunsford was named the interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Herman is a former head coach at Houston and Texas. Lunsford is a former head coach at Georgia Southern.

 

Monday was a bad day for coaches. Massachusetts head coach Don Brown was fired. Brown was in his third season with the Minutemen. During his three seasons at UMass, Brown was 6-28 – 2-8 this season. UMass competes as an Independent. This was Brown’s second stint at UMass. As the head coach of the Minutemen from 2004 to 2008, he went 43-19. Offensive coordinator Shane Montgomery was named the interim head coach for the remainder of the season.

 

It's dangerous to be a coach of an AAC team. Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi was fired on Monday. Poggi was in his second season with the 49ers. During his two seasons at Charlotte, Poggi was 6-16 – 3-7 this season (2-4 in AAC play). Tight ends coach Tim Brewster was named the interim head coach for the remainder of the season. Poggi was the second AAC coach fired on Monday and the fifth AAC coach fired this year. East Carolina, Rice and Temple fired their coaches prior to Monday, while Florida Atlantic fired its coach earlier in the day on Monday.

 

Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain announced yesterday that he is retiring at the end of the season. The Chippewas are 4-7 (2-5 in MAC play), with one game remaining at Northern Illinois on November 30. McElwain is a former head coach at Colorado State and Florida. His overall record is 77-63. In six seasons (2019-2024) at Central Michigan, McElwain was 33-35. He coached Colorado State from 2012 to 2014, with a 22-16 record, and Florida from 2015 to 2017, with a 22-12 record. McElwain was the offensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008 to 2011.  

 

After Week 12, the 12 teams in the College Football Playoff are Oregon, Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Indiana, Notre Dame, Alabama, Miami (Florida), Ole Miss, Georgia, Boise State and BYU. Sitting on the bubble outside the 12 are Tennessee, SMU, Texas A&M and Colorado.

 

Key games this week, impacting the College Football Playoff contenders are Indiana-Ohio State, Penn State-Minnesota, Army-Notre Dame, Alabama-Oklahoma, Ole Miss-Florida, BYU-Arizona State and SMU-Virginia,

 

In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, North Dakota State (10-1) is No. 1, followed by 2. Montana State (11-0), 3. South Dakota State (8-2), 4. South Dakota (8-2), 5. U.C. Davis (9-2) and 6. Incarnate Word (9-2).

 

This week, ESPN’s College GameDay is in Columbus, Ohio, for the Indiana-Ohio State game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Pasadena, California, for the USC-UCLA game, and the SEC Network’s SEC Nation is in Austin, Texas, for the Kentucky-Texas game.

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Touchdown Tom

November 21, 2024

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

(The next CFW – Week 13 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 25.)

 

 

Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for

Week Thirteen’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some

 

GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Indiana (10-0) at Ohio State (9-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – Indiana is a good team at 10-0. But are the Hoosiers a great team? We’ll find out Saturday when Indiana faces its first and only major test of the season. Ohio State has faced two major teams – Oregon and Penn State. Indiana has not faced one major team. That is until Saturday when the Hoosiers face Ohio State. Quite frankly, the pundits don’t think Indiana has the horses to beat Ohio State. Many think Indiana will lose by at least two touchdowns. The Hoosiers have a challenge. Can they measure up? Hats off to Indiana for what the Hoosiers have accomplished so far. But it all comes crashing down on Saturday – Ohio State 28, Indiana 20.

 

RUNNER-UP: 2. Army (9-0) at Notre Dame (9-1) – (AAC vs. Ind.) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – Army and Notre Dame are both like Indiana. Neither has faced a major team all season. But Notre Dame’s opponents have been more formidable than Army’s. Both teams have a shot at the playoff. Lose and that shot is all but gone. One of them has to lose on Saturday. It’s not looking good for the Black Knights. Danny Boy keeps his hopes alive – Notre Dame 30, Army 22,

 

REST OF THE BEST: 3. BYU (9-1) at Arizona State (8-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Neither team was supposed to be here. Both were supposed to finish at or near the bottom of the Big 12. Both are still in contention to play in the Big 12 championship game. The loser, most likely, will fall out of that contention. BYU was upset at home last week. Arizona State got a big win on the road. The teams have a lot of similarities. BYU averages 32 points a game; Arizona State averages 31 points. The Cougars are holding their opponents to 20 points a game; the Sun Devils are holding their opponents to 23 points. BYU has a slight edge over ASU. But the Sun Devils are home. ASU is undefeated at home. The Sun Devils remain undefeated at home – Arizona State 31, BYU 30.  

 

4. Penn State (9-1) at Minnesota (6-4) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Next to Ohio State, Minnesota is most likely Penn State’s toughest opponent all season. Minnesota was on a four-game winning streak, until the Gophers stumbled at Rutgers last week. Maybe they got caught looking ahead to Penn State. Minnesota has a decent quarterback in Max Brosmer. He has passed for 2,252 yards, while only throwing four interceptions in 10 games. Should Penn State lose, the loss could knock the Nitts out of the playoff. The Nittany Lions meet the challenge – Penn State 30, Minnesota 23.

 

5. Sam Houston (8-2) at Jacksonville State (7-3) – (C-USA vs, C-USA) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, CBSSN – The other Bearcats against the other Gamecocks. Both teams are in the running for the C-USA championship game. Jax State is on a seven-game winning streak. Sam Houston comes in on a three-game winning streak. Jax State averages 39 points a game. The Bearcats only average 25 points a game. But the Gamecocks give up 29 points a game. Sam Houston only gives up 20 points a game. So, look for a potential high-scoring affair. The Gamecocks extend their winning streak to eight games – Jacksonville State 33, Sam Houston 28.

 

6. SMU (9-1) at Virginia (5-5) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Is the pressure getting to SMU? The Mustangs got a scare from Boston College last week. Virginia got a beating from Notre Dame. Virginia has been a strange, but sneaky, team. The Cavaliers have lost four of their last five games. But while getting clobbered by North Carolina, Clemson and Notre Dame, they barely lost to Louisville (4 points) and beat Pitt. Virginia is giving up 28 points a game, while scoring 25 points a game. SMU is on a seven-game winning streak. The Mustangs are averaging 40 points a game too. But if Boston College can give SMU problems, Virginia can too. The Mustangs solve the problems – SMU 28, Virginia 21.

 

7. Ole Miss (8-2) at Florida (5-5) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Can the Gators pull off another upset in The Swamp? It could happen. Florida seems to have found its groove. The Gators are playing better. But Ole Miss is a better team than LSU. The Magnolias have Jaxson Dart at quarterback. They are averaging 41 points a game, while holding opponents to 13 points a game. That’s pretty impressive. Plus, the Magnolias are on a three-game winning streak. And a loss would knock Ole Miss out of the playoff. Florida will find it difficult to score on Ole Miss. And the Gators will find it difficult to keep Ole Miss from scoring. Albert will have to wait until next week to become bowl eligible – Ole Miss 26, Florida 23

 

8. Pitt (7-3) at Louisville (6-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Both teams are in a funk. Louisville lost to lowly Stanford last week. Pitt, after starting 7-0, has lost three-straight games. Pitt’s quarterback Eli Holstein is on the injured list. He may or may not play. However, backup Nate Yarnell played pretty good against Clemson last week. Both teams average about 35-36 points a game. Both give up about 25-26 points a game. As a team, Louisville fell apart against Stanford. The Cardinals lost their composure and their discipline. The funk continues for Pitt – Louisville 27, Pitt 24.

 

9. UNLV (8-2) at San Jose State (6-4) – (MWC vs. MWC) – 10 pm ET, Friday, FS1 – UNLV is still in the running to play in the MWC championship game. San Jose State isn’t. The Spartans will have to play the role of the spoiler. They could be a spoiler too. San Jose State gave Boise State a big scare last week, before the Broncos pulled away in the fourth quarter. The Spartans were home last week, and they will be home against UNLV. The Rebels are averaging 40 points a game. San Jose State has some issues on defense. Nothing spartan about the Rebels – UNLV 34, San Jose State 23.

 

10. Alabama (8-2) at Oklahoma (5-5) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – This has been a disappointing season for Oklahoma. But the school recently gave coach Brent Venables a vote of confidence. Maybe that will give the Sooners the confidence to beat Alabama. Most likely not. OU has problems on offense and on defense. The Sooners also lack a quarterback. OU is 1-5 in SEC play. The Sooners may make it tough on Alabama for a while, but not for long. I have a feeling that Jalen Milroe will slice and dice the Sooners. And Bama is focused on the SEC title game and the playoff. The Schooner is lacking wheels – Alabama 28, Oklahoma 19.

 

 

YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:

 

UCF (4-6) at West Virginia (5-5) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPNU – Both teams are scrambling to become bowl eligible. WVU needs to win one of its last two games. UCF needs to win both of its last two games. The odds are 50/50 for both of them. WVU may or may not be playing its next to last game under Neal Brown. Who knows? It’s unclear what may or may not happen to Brown. The problem with West Virginia: Its defense gives up as many points as its offense scores – 30-30. UCF should have no problem scoring on the Mounties. Can WVU outscore UCF? It should be fun. Or maybe sad. However, the Mountaineers become bowl eligible – barely – West Virginia 31, UCF 30.

 

Wisconsin (5-5) at Nebraska (5-5) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – These two teams are scrambling to become bowl eligible too. And like UCF-WVU, this is a tough game to call. Both teams are averaging 23-24 points a game. Both are giving up 20-21 points a game. Neither has an offense. Both have the ability to play defense. Wisconsin fired its offensive coordinator. Nebraska hired a new offensive coordinator. There could be a lot of angst in this game. Bucky shucks Herbie – Wisconsin 20, Nebraska 17.

 

Virginia Tech (5-5) at Duke (7-3) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – Another tough game that is hard to pick. Both are capable of winning. Tech is more desperate for the win. Duke is already bowl eligible. Tech quarterback Kyron Drones is questionable. He is injured and may or may not play. Duke quarterback Maalik Murphy has been playing well lately. He could be the difference. Regardless, the difference won’t be by much. Dookies over Hokies – Duke 24, Virginia Tech 22.

 

Massachusetts (2-8) at Georgia (8-2) – (Ind.  vs. SEC) – 12:45 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – What a relief. No problem picking this one. The three games above under “Ye Olde Stomping Grounds” were separated by a total of six points in my predictions. This one could be settled by 60 points. Carson Beck need only play the first half. Actually, he need not play at all, but you have to keep him warmed up for Georgia Tech. And to think, UMass fired its coach this week. Sometimes, teams play better under the interim coach. The Minutemen will need to play a lot better. This will be like a day at the pool for the Dawgs. Uga sips his poolside drink – Georgia 45, Massachusetts 12.

 

Kentucky (4-6) at Texas (9-1) – (Sec vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – You just know Texas will have its mind on Texas A&M – next week’s opponent. That means Kentucky could slip up on the Horns. Texas only played one big team this season and the Horns lost that game – Georgia. Quinn Ewers has not been playing well lately. So, the ingredients could be there for Kentucky to make this a good game. After all, the Wildcats did sneak up on Ole Miss. No sneaking for the Wildcats this time – Texas 30, Kentucky 15.

 

Purdue (1-9) at Michigan State (4-6) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – Here are two of the Big Ten’s most woeful teams. Michigan State is 2-5 in conference play. Purdue is worse at 0-7. The Spartans are averaging 19 points a game and giving up 26 a game. They are also coming in on a three-game losing streak. But Purdue is worse. The Boilers are averaging 17 points a game, while giving up 39 points a game. And the Boilers have lost nine-straight games. That’s painful. The Spartans make it more painful – Michigan State 24, Purdue 23.

 

 

ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:

 

Wake Forest (4-6) at Miami (9-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN….

Drake (7-2) at Stetson (2-8) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

 

Charleston Southern (1-10) at Florida State (1-9) – (Big South vs. ACC) – 1:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….

FIU (3-7) at Kennesaw State (1-9) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

Charlotte (3-7) at Florida Atlantic (2-8) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

 

Florida A&M (5-5) vs. Bethune-Cookman (2-9) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPNU….

Tulsa (3-7) at South Florida (5-5) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“I was bored,” former West Virginia and Houston coach Dana Holgorsen, on why he accepted the offensive consultant/coordinator job at Nebraska.

 

“I’m happy where I am, man. I’ve got a kickstand down. You know what a kickstand is? That means I’m resting. I’m good. I’m happy. I’m excited. I’m enthusiastic about where I am. I love it here, truly do,” Colorado coach Deion Sanders, on speculation he will leave Boulder for another job.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

P.S.

 

Not exactly college football related, but I need to correct a mistake. On Monday, I mistakenly gave you the number one songs 80, 75, 70, 65, etc. years ago from 2023, instead of 2024. Here are the number one songs 80, 75, 70, 65, etc. years ago from 2024. I apologize for my mistake.

 

The number one song in the country…

 

…80 years ago, this week in 1944, was “I’ll Walk Alone” by Dinah Shore

 

…75 years ago, this week in 1949, was “That Lucky Old Sun” by Frankie Lane

 

…70 years ago, this week in 1954, was “I Need You Now” by Eddie Fisher, and “This Ole House” by Rosemary Clooney

 

…65 years ago, this week in 1959, was “Mr. Blue” by The Fleetwoods

 

…60 years ago, this week in 1964, was “Baby Love” by The Supremes

 

…55 years ago, this week in 1969, was “Honky Tonk Women” by The Rolling Stones, and “Sugar, Sugar” by The Archies

 

…50 years ago, this week in 1974, was “Whatever Gets You Thru The Night” by John Lennon, and “I Can Help” by Billy Swan

 

…45 years ago, this week in 1979, was “Still” by the Commodores

 

…40 years ago, this week in 1984, was “Wake Me Up Before You Go-Go” by Wham!

 

…35 years ago, this week in 1989, was “When I See You Smile” by Bad English