CFW Week 12 Forecast - Vols-Dawgs: Pressure is on the Dawgs

 CFW Week 12 Forecast – Vols-Dawgs: Pressure is on the Dawgs

We’re down to the nitty-gritty

 

Three weeks to go and we’re down to the nitty-gritty. Who will play in the conference championship games? For some conferences, it’s pretty obvious. For others it’s up in the air.

 

Remember, the Power Four conference champions will be the four highest-ranked teams in the College Football Playoff seedings, regardless of where they are ranked in the final CFP poll. Each will have a first-round bye in the playoff. Then the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion will automatically make the playoff, regardless of where it is ranked in the final CFP poll.

 

Back to the nitty-gritty. Would you believe the SEC could end up with eight teams tied for the right to play in the conference title game.  That’s right, an eight-way tie. Tennessee, Texas A&M, Texas, Georgia, Mississippi, Alabama, Missouri and LSU could all end up tied at the top of the SEC standings. The tiebreaker is complicated, to say the least. We’re looking at potential chaos. Key games coming up: Tennessee at Georgia and Texas at Texas A&M.

 

The situation is almost as bad in the Big 12. Six teams are still in the running to make the Big 12 championship game – BYU, Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas State, Arizona State and West Virginia. Technically speaking, TCU, Texas Tech, Cincinnati, Baylor and Houston aren’t mathematically eliminated. But the chances for those five teams are slim to none. Key games coming up: Arizona State at Kansas State, BYU at Arizona State, Cincinnati at Iowa State, Cincinnati at Kansas State and Kansas State at Iowa State.

 

The Big Ten and the ACC aren’t quite as complicated as the SEC and Big 12. In the Big Ten, it’s looking like Oregon will play the winner of the Indiana-Ohio State game for the conference title. Penn State is still in the mix. But it would require several upsets to occur for the Nittany Lions to advance to the title game. Key games coming up: Indiana at Ohio State, Michigan at Ohio State and Penn State at Minnesota.

 

The ACC isn’t quite as simple as the Big Ten. Five ACC teams still have a shot at playing in the conference title game – SMU, Clemson, Miami, Louisville and Pitt. Key games coming up: Clemson at Pitt, Pitt at Louisville, Miami at Syracuse, Pitt at Boston College and Boston College at SMU.

 

Of the Group of Five conferences, the one team making the playoff will come from either the AAC or the MWC. The other three conferences – C-USA, the MAC and the Sun Belt – really don’t stand a chance of getting their champion into the playoff this year.

 

In the AAC, the teams still in running for the conference championship game are Army, Tulane, Navy, Memphis and East Carolina. Army is in the driver’s seat. Key games coming up: Navy at East Carolina, Memphis at Tulane and Tulane at Navy.

 

The MWC has the best shot at placing the Group of Five team in the playoff. That team is Boise State. The Broncos are currently the highest-ranked Group of Five team in the CFP rankings at 13^th. Remaining threats to Boise State in the MWC are Colorado State, UNLV and San Jose State. Key games coming up: Boise State at San Jose State and UNLV at San Jose State.   

 

So, settle in for what’s going to be a fun final three weeks watching these conferences play out.

 

One of those key games is the Game of the Week on Saturday – No. 7 Tennessee (7-1) at No. 12 Georgia (7-2). If Georgia loses, it’s all over for the Dawgs. No playoff for Carson Beck. If Tennessee loses, the Vols are still in the running. So, the pressure Saturday will be on Georgia.

 

Another good game in the SEC this week is No. 23 Missouri (7-2) at No. 21 South Carolina (4-3). The Gamecocks may be the hottest team in the country right now. This is a knockout game for the loser. The winner still has some possibilities. So, the pressure is on both teams.

 

The third SEC pressure cooker is No. 3 Texas (8-1) at Arkansas (5-4). The Razorbacks are only playing to become bowl eligible and to spoil the picture for Texas. Actually, the Longhorns can lose and still make the SEC title game and the CFP playoff. But it means they have to beat Texas A&M on Thanksgiving weekend. So, the pressure is on Texas.

 

The next best game is one of those Group of Five races in the AAC – No. 25 Tulane (8-2) at Navy (7-2). There will be a lot of pressure in this game as it will be curtains for the loser.

 

The best contest in the Big Ten this weekend is No. 1 Oregon (10-0) at Wisconsin (5-4). The Ducks control their destiny. The Badgers will be playing the role of the spoiler. The pressure is on Oregon.

 

The Big 12 has two good games. The best of the two should be Arizona State (7-2) at No. 16 Kansas State (7-2). Both teams are in a must win situation. The other interesting contest in the Big 12 is Cincinnati (5-4) at Iowa State (7-2). Both teams come into the game off a loss – Iowa State off of two losses. This is another must win game for both teams. Kansas State and Iowa State will be feeling the pressure in those two games.

 

The marquee game in the ACC this weekend is No. 20 Clemson (7-2) at Pitt (7-2). Clemson bounced back last week, while Pitt stumbled. This is a must win for both teams. Another good contest in the ACC is Boston College (5-4) at No. 14 SMU (8-1). SMU has had an amazing season, and it has the potential to be even more amazing. Boston College will be out to spoil things for the Mustangs.

 

Last but not least, No. 13 Boise State (8-1) begins its final three-game stretch against San Jose State (6-3). The Broncos are in the driver’s seat, but they cannot afford to take San Jose State for granted.  

 

ESPN’s College GameDay this week is in Athens, Georgia, for the Tennessee-Georgia game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Boulder, Colorado, for the Utah-Colorado contest. And SEC Nation is also in Athens, Georgia for the Tennessee-Georgia game.

 

That was quick. Last week Nebraska coach Matt Rhule hired Dana Holgerson to be his offensive consultant to the Huskers for the remainder of the season. This week, Rhule elevated Holgerson to the offensive coordinator position for the remainder of the season. Nebraska’s remaining games are against USC, Wisconsin and Iowa. Will Holgerson bring luck to the Huskers? Stay tuned!

 

After Week 11, the latest College Football Playoff rankings have Oregon (10-0) at No. 1, followed by 2. Ohio State (8-1), 3. Texas (8-1), 4. Penn State (8-1), 5. Indiana (10-0) and 6. BYU (9-0).

 

Based on the rankings this week, the 12 teams making the playoff consist of four teams from the Big Ten (Oregon, Ohio State, Penn State and Indiana), four teams from the SEC (Texas, Tennessee, Alabama and Ole Miss), one team from the Big 12 (BYU), one Independent (Notre Dame), one team from the ACC (Miami) and one team from the MWC (Boise State).  Sitting on the fence looking in are 12, Georgia, 14. SMU and 15. Texas A&M.

 

In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, North Dakota State (9-1) is No. 1, followed by 2. Montana State (10-0), 3. South Dakota State (8-2), 4. UC Davis (9-1), 5. South Dakota (7-2) and 6. Incarnate Word (8-2). Harvard (7-1) is 22 and Dartmouth (7-1) is 24.

 

Former USC (twice) and Los Angeles Rams football coach John Robinson died on Monday. Robinson coached USC from 1976 to 1982 and from 1993 to 1997. He coached the Rams from 1983 to 1991. He also coached UNLV from 1999 to 2004. Robinson’s USC teams won four Rose Bowls and captured a share of the national championship in 1978.  He played college football at Oregon where he was a tight end on the Ducks 1958 Rose Bowl team. A native of Chicago, John Alexander Robinson was 89.

 

Former Notre Dame coach Gerry Faust died on Monday. Faust coached Notre Dame from 1981 to 1985 (30-26-1 record). After Notre Dame, he coached Akron from 1986 to 1994 (43-53-2 record). Faust was the coach of Moeller High School in Cincinnati, Ohio, when he was hired to coach at Notre Dame. He coached Moeller for 19 years (1962-1980), compiling a 178-23-2 record and winning five state championships. Faust played college football for Dayton (1955-1967), where he was a quarterback for the Flyers. A native of Dayton, Ohio, Gerald Anthony Faust was 89.

 

Enjoy your weekend!

 

Touchdown Tom

November 14, 2024

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

 

Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for

Week Twelve’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some

 

GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Tennessee (8-1) at Georgia (7-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Here we go again this week with another hot game in the SEC. Neither team can afford to lose, but least of all Georgia. A third loss would all but knock Georgia out of the playoff. Tennessee quarterback Nico Iamaleava was injured last week and is currently in concussion protocol. He may or may not play Saturday. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck is hurting for a good game. In his last two outings, Beck was responsible for six turnovers – four interceptions and two fumbles. On paper, Tennessee is the better team. The Vols have a better offense and defense. But that’s not to say that Georgia’s offense and defense are bad. The Dawgs aren’t quite as good as the Vols on offense and defense. But the game is in Athens. The Dawgs are home. That’s a big positive for Georgia. The Dawgs haven’t lost at home since October 2019. That was five years and a few weeks ago. It was a double-overtime loss to South Carolina – 20-17 (2OT). This game may or may not go to overtime, but Uga wins – Georgia 28, Tennessee 27,

 

RUNNER-UP: 2. Tulane (8-2) at Navy (7-2) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Believe it or not, both of these teams have a shot at the playoff. They would have to win-out, including a win in the AAC championship game. Then they would have to hope that Boise State suffers a loss. That would most likely make them the highest-ranked Group of Five conference champion. Of the two teams, Tulane is the hot one. The Green Wave have won seven-straight games. They have averaged 45 points a game in those seven wins. Navy has to hope that quarterback Blake Horvath is at the top of his game Saturday. If he is, Navy will win. Horvath is a passer and a runner. He’s good at both. But Horvath has had some tough times lately. The Wave swamps the Navy’s boat – Tulane 24, Navy 21.

 

REST OF THE BEST: 3. Oregon (10-0) at Wisconsin (5-4) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – Indiana almost caved last week. Oregon could be suspect this week. The Ducks have to be feeling some pressure. They wobbled a bit against Maryland last week. Wisconsin’s only advantage is the home field. The Badgers are weak on defense and weaker on offense. But could an upset be brewing. Not likely – Oregon 27, Wisconsin 16.

 

4. Arizona State (7-2) at Kansas State (7-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – At this point in the season, Kansas State was supposed to be here – 7-2. Arizona State was not supposed to be here – 7-2. In fact, Arizona State was supposed to be just the opposite – 2-7. On paper, these teams are fairly even. The Sun Devils live on running back Cameron Skattebo. But Skattebo has an undisclosed injury and may or may not play against K-State. Kansas State lives on the passing of Avery Johnson and the running of D.J. Giddens. Neither are injured. The Wildcats give the Devils cat-scratch fever – Kansas State 30, Arizona State 27.

 

5. Clemson (7-2) at Pitt (7-2) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – Clemson faced a tough opponent on the road last week. The Tigers got by Virginia Tech. Now Clemson has another tough opponent on the road – Pitt. Neither team can afford another loss in ACC play – least of all Pitt. The Panthers stumbled against Virginia last week. They were probably caught looking ahead to Clemson. For Pitt to beat Clemson, quarterback Eli Holstein probably has to play. But Holstein is out with a head injury. He may or may not play. Clemson will be in good hands with quarterback Cade Klubnik and running back Phil Mafah. The Tigers are the Top Cats – Clemson 30, Pitt 19.

 

6. Boise State (8-1) at San Jose State (6-3) – (MWC vs. MWC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, CBSSN – Boise State didn’t look all that sharp last week against Nevada. San Jose State is a better team than Nevada. And the game is in San Jose. I hope Boise State knows the way. The Spartans are a deceptive team. They can score. Quarterback Emmett Brown has his moments. But they can’t keep opponents from scoring. Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty could have a heyday. If Boise State wins out, including the MWC championship game, the Broncos are in the playoff hands down. Boise gets noisy – Boise State 31, San Jose State 23.

  

7. Missouri (7-2) at South Carolina (6-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – After six games, South Carolina was 3-3. After nine games, the Gamecocks are 6-3. It’s not unthinkable that South Carolina could finish the season 9-3. The Gamecocks could be on the brink of making the playoff. Missouri is so banged up with injuries that it is hard to believe the Tigers can beat South Carolina. Not the way the Gamecocks have been playing lately. And with the game being played in the South Carolina Columbia and not the Missouri Columbia. Gamecocks’ quarterback LaNorris Sellers and running back Raheim Sanders have found their groove. Cocky is looking groovy – South Carolina 24, Missouri 20.

 

8. Texas (8-1) at Arkansas (5-4) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – There is a lot of history in this old rivalry. And the SEC has brought these two schools back together again. What a rivalry it is! It’s been said that Arkansas fans hate Texas more than they love themselves. With its talent, Texas should have no trouble putting down the Razorbacks. But the rivalry is so intense, you never know what could happen. Still, it is hard to see Arkansas putting up a fight for very long. Bevo cooks the Pork low and slow – Texas 33, Arkansas 16.

 

9. Boston College (5-4) at SMU (8-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Boston College is changing quarterbacks this week. Thomas Castellanos is injured and may or may not have played anyway. Castellanos was replaced in the game last week against Syracuse. Grayson James took over and helped the Eagles beat the Cuse. James will be starting against SMU. BC needs something because SMU has been playing very well. It’s hard to stop the Mustangs. SMU is averaging 40 points a game. BC isn’t bad, but the Eagles don’t have the best defense in the world. It’s SMU’s first year in the ACC and the Mustangs are on a mission. The mission continues – SMU 30, Boston College 20.

 

10. Cincinnati (5-4) at Iowa State (7-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – Following a 7-0 start, Iowa State has lost two games. One would think that the two-game losing streak is about to come to an end. If Cincinnati is to win, the Bearcats need to run through the Cyclones’ defense. Defending the run is a weakness for Iowa State. And if Cincy can get its running game going, that might open up the passing for Brendan Sorsby. Sorsby is good. But you have to figure the Cyclones are really hungry for a win. Quarterback Rocco Becht gets cranked up. The Cyclones have the Bearcats spinning – Iowa State 27, Cincinnati 18.

 

 

YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:

 

Baylor (5-4) at West Virginia (5-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Uh oh! Here is another winning team. Baylor is 5-4. Can Neal Brown beat two teams with winning records? Baylor is improving. The Bears were 2-4. Now they are 5-4. Three straight wins. Both teams have incentive. The winner becomes bowl eligible. Looks like Nico Marchiol will be quarterbacking the Eers again. He looked good against Arizona and bad against Cincinnati. Baylor is capable of scoring. But so are the Bears’ opponents. The ingredients are there for an interesting game in Morgantown. The Mountaineer looks good in a Bearskin – West Virginia 27, Baylor 24.

 

LSU (6-3) at Florida (4-5) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Who knows? Both teams looked awful last week. Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway is still on the injured list, along with a slew of other Florida players. Lagway’s play is a game-day decision. If he plays, the Gators may have a chance. How will LSU respond to that awful loss to Alabama? The Tigers could be down in the dumps. Then again, they may be fired up. After all, LSU only has two losses in SEC play. Win and the Tigers are still in a race for the conference championship game. Lose and they are out of it. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier will be looking to bounce back. He's had two bad weeks. The Gators still need two wins to become bowl eligible. Mike says, “Over my dead body” – LSU 33, Florida 24.

 

Nebraska (5-4) at USC (4-5) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – Either team could win this game. That’s how bad both teams are. USC has lost five of its last seven games. Nebraska has lost three-straight games. Both were supposed to be pretty good teams this season. It didn’t happen. As often has been the case, Lincoln Riley has had defense problems. Matt Rhule has had problems on offense. Enter Dana Holgorsen. Last week, Rhule added Holgorsen to his staff as an offensive consultant. This week, Rhule upgraded Holgorsen to offensive coordinator. So, the Huskers will have a new look on offense against the Trojans. Nebraska may or may not have a new quarterback too. Dylan Raiola, suffering from a back injury, is listed as a probable starter. Riley has sacked his quarterback Miller Moss and will be going with Jayden Maiava. So, the Trojans will have a new look on offense too. Herbie gets lost in L.A. – USC 28, Nebraska 20.

 

Penn State (8-1) at Purdue (1-8) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Poor Purdue. Last week, the Boilers lost to Ohio State. This week, they have to play Penn State. Talk about torture? There is no rest for the weary. Penn State’s chances for the Big Ten championship game are not looking good. But if the Nittany Lions win out, they should be safe to make the playoff. Poor Boilers – Penn State 42, Purdue 10.

 

 

ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:

 

Mississippi Valley State (0-10) at Florida A&M (5-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 1 pm ET, Saturday….

FIU (3-6) at Jacksonville State (6-3) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 2 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

 

FAU (2-7) at Temple (2-7) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 2 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

Bethune-Cookman (2-8) at Texas Southern (3-6) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….

South Florida (4-5) at Charlotte (3-6) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

 

Stetson (2-7) at San Diego (6-3) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….

West Florida (7-2) at Valdosta State (9-0) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 7 pm ET, Saturday….

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“Obviously, the season thus far has not gone as we’d hoped or planned. We’re mindful that we haven’t met the Oklahoma standard for 2024. That said, we truly believe in coach Venables and our team and are completely focused on both supporting them and looking at all the ways to address the needed improvements now as soon as possible as well as in preparation for next year,” Oklahoma athletic director Joe Castiglione, on OU coach Brent Venables.

 

“Don’t start that. I love it where I am,” Colorado coach Deion Sanders, on coaching the Dallas Cowboys next year.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

(The next CFW – Week 12 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 18.)