Week 4 Forecast – Who’s Choosin’ Texas?
Knoxville takes center stage
After Week 1, I went out on a limb and predicted that Miami and LSU would play for the national championship in January. For the time being, I’m still sticking to that prediction. However, I may replace LSU with another team sometime in the near future.
I also went out on a limb and said that Miami quarterback and receiver Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney would both be in New York for the Heisman Trophy presentation in December. I’m still sticking with that prediction too. However, I’m close to adding Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss to my Heisman finalist list. Florida running back Jadan Baugh is getting hot too.
After three weeks, Mensah has completed 89.9% of his passes, throwing for 873 yards and 11 touchdowns, with no interceptions. Toney has 28 receptions for 444 yards and 5 touchdowns. Chambliss has thrown for 924 yards, with 7 touchdowns and 2 interceptions. He has completed 70% of his passes. Baugh has rushed for 458 yards and 8 touchdowns. He is averaging 8.5 yards per carry.
A lot could change this weekend as LSU, Trinidad Chambliss and Jadan Baugh all have big games.
College football Week 4 definitely belongs to the SEC. The Top 3 games of the week and six of the Top 10 games are all SEC encounters. Let’s begin.
Two weeks ago, Texas was involved in the Game of the Week when the Longhorns hosted Ohio State. Texas is back in that spot again this week – but the Longhorns are on the road this time. Texas at Tennessee is this week’s Game of the Week. And what a game it should be too.
Knoxville will be wild as it is UT versus UT. It’s also Orange and White against Orange and White. Although, as someone said, Texas left its Orange on the burner a little too long. What is Ella Langley’s record-breaking No. 1 song? “Choosin’ Texas.” Is that an omen?
Right behind Texas-Tennessee is Ole Miss at Florida. In the AP Top 25 Poll, Ole Miss is 4th and Florida is 21st, yet Florida is favored to beat Ole Miss. Go figure? Well, Ole Miss is coming off a big win, running back Kewan Lacy is injured, Florida has Jadan Baugh and the Gators seem to be gaining momentum.
The third best game is Oklahoma at Georgia. The Sooners are desperate for a win over a big team. OU will pull out all stops to beat the Dawgs. And the Sooners do have a good defense. Can OU quarterback John Mateer snap out of his slump? Or will Gunner haul out the heavy artillery?
It’s always interesting when two good teams who both lost the previous week get together. One has to win and the other has to suffer its second loss. That’s what it will be when Texas A&M takes on LSU in Baton Rouge. Neither A&M’s Marcel Reed nor LSU’s Sam Leavitt were playing at their best last week. The winner will be back in the saddle again. The loser will be sitting on hard times.
Actually, the most exciting of the six SEC games could turn out to be Missouri at Mississippi State. Both teams are still undefeated. Everyone is fascinated with Miss State quarterback Super Kamario – Kamaio Taylor. He is an exciting quarterback. That’s for sure.
And finally in the SEC, South Carolina has a chance to redeem itself. But it won’t be easy. The Gamecocks play Alabama in Tuscaloosa. Bama quarterback Keelon Russell is having a good season. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers is not. But Sellers is capable of pulling a rabbit out of the hat.
Three SEC teams are facing extinction this week – the loser of the Texas A&M-LSU game, plus Oklahoma and South Carolina.
The Big Ten has three outstanding games this week. It begins in the Coliseum in Los Angeles where Oregon comes down the coast to take on USC. Both teams have shined on offense, while rusting on defense. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava is one of the best quarterbacks in the country. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore should be.
Next up, Iowa takes on Michigan in The Big House. If you like a lot of touchdowns, you probably won’t like this game. It could end up being all field goals – if that. Neither team likes to score much, but both play outstanding defense.
And finally, in the Big Ten, Indiana is not playing a powder puff this week. The Hoosiers host Northwestern. The Wildcats beat Colorado last week, 41-7. Can Northwestern challenge Indiana?
The only non-SEC and non-Big Ten game to make the Top 10 Games of the Week is a Big 12 encounter – Oklahoma State at West Virginia. Following its opening loss to Tulsa, Okie State bounced back to beat Oregon. The Cowboys are 2-1. Quarterback Drew Mestemaker may have found his groove. West Virginia knocked off Virginia last week. The Mountaineers are 3-0. Quarterback Michael Hawkins, an Oklahoma transfer, is looking good. It could be a night full of offense in Morgantown.
And for various reasons, keep an eye on these following important games: Clemson at California, Wake Forest at Louisville, UCLA at Maryland, Vanderbilt at Auburn, Kansas State at Cincinnati and Boise State at Western Michigan.
The Top 12 teams in this week’s Top-25 FCS Coaches Poll are 1. Montana State (4-0), 2. South Dakota State (3-1), 3. Tarleton State (4-0), 4. (tie) Illinois State (4-0) and Montana (3-1), 6. Stephen F. Austin (4-0), 7. Lehigh (4-0), 8. North Dakota (3-1), 9. UC Davis (3-1), 10. Tennessee Tech (3-0), 11. Austin Peay (3-1), and 12. South Dakota (3-1).
The Saturday morning pregame shows this week: ESPN's College GameDay is in Knoxville, Tennessee, for the Texas-Tennessee game. FOX's Big Noon Kickoff is in Columbus, Ohio, for the Illinois-Ohio State game. SECN's SEC Nation is in Gainesville, Florida, for the Ole Miss-Florida game. ACCN's ACC Huddle is in Louisville, Kentucky, for the Wake Forest, Louisville game.
“He always loved Amarillo By Morning
I shoulda taken that as a warning”
“Just when I thought I got him to fall in love with Tennessee.
He’s choosin’ Texas, I can tell.”
Ella Langley
Touchdown Tom
September 24, 2026
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Four’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. #1 Texas (3-0) at #14 Tennessee (3-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Two weeks ago, Texas was involved in the Game of the Week. Here the Longhorns are again. Two weeks ago it was against Ohio State. Two weeks ago the Longhorns were home. This week, the Longhorns are against Tennessee. This week the Longhorns are on the road. This week has the potential to be tougher. We know Texas is good. The Longhorns proved that against Ohio State. We believe Tennessee is good. But the Vols are untested. So, don’t be surprised if Texas wins big. However, the game is in Knoxville, and we know Tennessee has talent. Texas has an experienced quarterback in Arch Manning. Tennessee has an upstart freshman quarterback in Faizon Brandon. Both teams have good running backs. Texas has good receivers. Both teams have good offensive lines. Texas has a good defense. Tennessee has an untested and unknown defense. And that could be the difference in the game. Just how good is Tennessee’s defense? Nothing Rocky about Bevo. He’s on Top – Texas 23, Tennessee 17.
RUNNER-UP: 2. #4 Ole Miss (3-0) at #21 Florida (3-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Florida against Ole Miss is a little like Tennessee against Texas. We know Ole Miss is good. Florida appears to be good. Florida has some advantages in this game. The Gators are home in The Swamp. Ole Miss is coming in off a monumental win. LSU could have taken the wind out of Ole Miss’s sails. The Magnolias are prime for an upset. Did I say upset? Florida is actually favored. Not by much but the Gators are favored. Ole Miss appears to be banged up a bit. Florida counters Ole Miss running back Kewan Lacy with Jadan Baugh. However, Ole Miss has the advantage at quarterback. Trinidad Chambliss is experienced; Aaron Philo is still developing. But Philo has played well. Again, this game is a little like Tennessee against Texas. The Florida defense is suspect. The Gators gave up 39 points to Auburn. But Ole Miss gave up 38 points to Louisville. So, go figure. Magnolias don’t grow in a swamp – Florida 30, Ole Miss 28.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. #29 Oklahoma (2-1) at #2 Georgia (3-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – It’s not looking good for Oklahoma. The Sooners already have a loss. The chances of beating Georgia are slim to none. So, I’m thinking the desperate Sooners will put up a good fight. They’ve got nothing to lose. OU’s offense is missing a few screws. The Sooners only scored 10 points against Michigan and only 14 points against New Mexico. So, you gotta believe OU won’t be lighting up the scoreboard against Georgia. The OU defense will be Georgia’s biggest challenge to date. The Dawgs could have some trouble lighting up the scoreboard too. “Sooner or later, Uga is gonna get you. Sooner or later, you got to give in. Sooner or later, Uga is gonna get you. Sooner or later, Uga is gonna win.” – Georgia 20, Oklahoma 19.
4. #20 Oregon (2-1) at #12 USC (4-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – This is going to be an interesting contest. Both teams have been disappointing. Oregon already has a loss. The Ducks lost to Oklahoma State. Boise State almost beat Oregon. The Ducks have shown they have the ability to score. The problem is the Oregon defense. The Ducks gave up 39 points to Oklahoma State and 27 points to Boise State. No doubt, USC should score on Oregon. Offense isn’t USC’s problem. Defense is. The Trojans gave up 26 points to San Jose State, 30 points to Louisiana and 35 points to Rutgers. So, this is going to be a high-scoring game. The scoreboard may blow a fuse. Both teams have talented quarterbacks. USC has Jayden Maiava and Oregon has Dante Moore. The Ducks have too many Quackers – Oregon 34, USC 33.
5. #23 Texas A&M (2-1) at #10 LSU (2-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Both teams took it on the chin last week, especially Texas A&M. The LSU-Ole Miss game was a tossup, but Texas A&M was supposed to clobber Kentucky. LSU lost the tossup and the Aggies got clobbered by Kentucky. So, the question is – which team will bounce back? The quarterbacks from both teams did not look that good last week. Texas A&M’s Marcel Reed was awful against Kentucky. LSU’s Sam Leavitt was weak against Ole Miss. This is going to be a good battle. But the Tigers bounce the Aggies – #10 LSU 27, Texas A&M 24.
6. #17 Iowa (3-0) vs. #18 Michigan (3-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – This is a crucial early season battle in the Big Ten. Both teams have played well on defense. Michigan has struggled on offense. Iowa appears to be the more solid team on offense and defense. Michigan is solid on defense, but first-year coach Kyle Whittingham is still trying to get his offense going. The Hawkeyes feast on maize – Iowa 17, Michigan 14.
7. #19 Missouri (3-0) at #24 Mississippi State (3-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – What a surprise Mississippi State has been. The Bulldogs are looking more and more impressive every week. It’s all because of the play of quarterback Kamario Taylor. What a surprise he has been too. Miss State’s defense may be a little suspect. But the Bulldogs offense has its act together. Missouri is still waiting for the return of running back Ahmad Hardy. He won’t be back against Miss State. Still, Missouri has played pretty well without Hardy. But the Tigers won’t be able to contend with Taylor. Bully has Truman by the tail – 7:45 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – Mississippi State 31, Missouri 30.
8. Northwestern (2-0) at #5 Indiana (3-0)– (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – Is Northwestern as tough as the Wildcats looked against Colorado? If so, this could be an interesting ball game. Northwestern quarterback Aidan Chiles has played well. So has the Northwestern defense. This will be Indiana’s first real game. To date, the Hoosiers have played three powder puffs. Northwestern is capable of giving Josh Hoover a challenge. Josh vacuums the Wildcats – Indiana 28, Northwestern 22.
9. South Carolina (2-1) at #8 Alabama (3-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – South Carolina got off to a strong start last week but faltered. Alabama, for the second-straight week, got off to a slow start but snapped out of it. How will the teams start this week? South Carolina has the experienced quarterback. But LaNorris Sellers hasn’t played like an experienced quarterback. Alabama has a freshman quarterback. Keelon Russell has responded well. Alabama’s defense may be suspect. Maybe Sellers can take advantage of that. This could be a high-scoring game. Chicken cacciatore is Big Al’s favorite meal – Alabama 35, South Carolina 26.
10. #30 Oklahoma State (2-1) at #28 West Virginia (3-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – These two teams each have a surprise win – Oklahoma State over Oregon and West Virginia over Virginia. The Cowboys also have a surprise loss – Tulsa over Oklahoma State. So, who will surprise this week? The Mountaineers are slightly favored. The Cowboys quarterback Drew Mestemaker will be a strong test for the WVU defense. Mestemaker has the ability to perform magic. Likewise, WVU quarterback Michael Hawkins can create problems for the Oklahoma State defense. Hawkins leads WVU in rushing. Both teams have strong running backs – Cam Cook for WVU and Caleb Hawkins for Okie State. Yeah, we’ve got two Hawkins in this ball game. Who said Cowboys don’t cry – West Virginia 40, Oklahoma State 35.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
#3 Notre Dame (3-0) at Purdue (1-2) – (Ind. Vs. Big Ten) – 2 pm ET, Saturday, Peacock – Purdue may be able to move the ball against the Irish. The Boilers offense seems to be getting better. Ryan Browne is a decent quarterback. But there is no way Purdue’s defense can stop Notre Dame. The Irish offense should have its way against the Boilers. The Irish have already knocked off two Big Ten teams – Wisconsin and Michigan State. Purdue will be the third. Another cake walk for Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr. The Irish step dance over the Boilers – Notre Dame 34, Purdue 20.
#36 (FCS) William & Mary (2-2) at #34 Duke (3-0) – (Patriot vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – Duke is off to a good start. Good things will continue this week for the Dookies. Much of Duke’s good start can be attributed to quarterback Walker Eget and running back Nate Sheppard. They have kept the offense going. And coach Manny Diaz has another good defense in Durham. Defense is his specialty. William & Mary is a competitive FCS team but not competitive enough for the Dookies. Bill & Mary have a Devil of a time – Duke 35, William & Mary 13.
#42 Nebraska (3-0) at Michigan State (2-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 5 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – Nebraska and Michigan State move into Big Ten action this week – against each other. The Huskers haven’t really played anyone. The Spartans have played Notre Dame. That could be a positive for the Spartans, even though they lost to the Irish. State has the experience of playing a tough opponent. Nebraska hasn’t tasted that yet. The Huskers appear to have the better offense. The Spartans may have the better defense. It’s going to be a tough game for both teams. State has the home field advantage. Nebraska could have the quarterback advantage. Anthony Colandrea has played well for the Huskers. Herbie escapes Sparta – Nebraska 20, Michigan State 17.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Central Arkansas (2-2) at Florida State (1-2) – (UAC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….
TCU (2-1) at UCF (2-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FS1….
South Florida (3-0) at Bowling Green (0-3) – (AC vs. MAC) – 5 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Long Island (0-4) at FIU (1-2) – (NEC vs. C-USA) – 6 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Central Michigan (2-1) at #6 Miami (3-0) – (MAC vs. ACC) – 6:30 pm ET, Saturday, CWN….
#20 (FCS) West Florida (2-1) at #42 (FCS) SE Missouri (2-2) – (UAC vs. OVC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
#14 (FCS) South Carolina State (4-0) at Bethune-Cookman (2-1) – (MEAC vs. SWAC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday….
Alabama A&M (3-1) at Florida A&M (1-3) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday….
Florida Atlantic (2-1) at ULM (0-3) – (AC vs. Sun Belt) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Quotes of the Week
“Western Michigan is an undefeated football team. Period. End of story. They absolutely beat Michigan at Michigan,” Boise State coach Spencer Danielson.
“Lot of good drugs out there,” Florida coach Jon Sumrall, when he learned that the Gators are favored over Ole Miss.
“Lincoln Riley is facing a now or never moment,” USA Today sports columnist Matt Hayes, on the USC coach going into the Oregon game.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 4 Results – will be posted Monday morning, September 28.