CFW Week 11 Forecast – Dana Holgerson joins Nebraska’s staff
Big Ten, SEC dominate CFP Top 12
When the going gets tough, the tough gets going. The going gets tough in the SEC this weekend with not one but two “tough gets going” games – No. 3 Georgia (7-1) at No. 16 Ole Miss (7-2) and No. 11 Alabama (6-2) at No. 15 LSU (6-2). The outcome of both games will shake up next week’s CFP rankings.
The SEC has two more games that pique my curiosity. They won’t necessarily shake up the CFP rankings, but they will shake up the SEC standings. The games are South Carolina (5-3) at Vanderbilt (6-3) and Oklahoma (5-4) at No. 24 Missouri (6-2).
The Big 12 has two key contests this weekend – No. 20 Colorado (6-2) at Texas Tech (6-3) and No. 9 BYU (8-0) at Utah (4-4). Texas Tech poses a big threat to Colorado. BYU-Utah is a big rivalry, known as The Holy War. To put it simply – the teams don’t like each other.
The best game in the Big Ten this weekend is Michigan (5-4) at No. 8 Indiana (9-0). Can the Wolverines spoil the Hoosiers perfect season?
The ACC has two games worth keeping an eye on – No. 4 (9-0) Miami at Georgia Tech (5-4) and No. 23 Clemson (6-2) at Virginia Tech (5-4). Miami quarterback Cam Ward has already passed for 3,146 yards this season. Clemson stumbled last week. Virginia Tech can be dangerous.
There is going to be a donnybrook in the AAC Saturday – No. 25 Army (8-0) at North Texas (5-3). Both of these teams can score, and both have exciting quarterbacks – Bryson Daily (Army) and Chandler Morris (North Texas).
Finally, the two best teams in the West Division of the Sun Belt Conference tangle this weekend – Arkansas State (5-3) at Louisiana (7-1). Louisiana is sitting on a five-game winning streak. Arkansas State has scored 78 points in its last two games.
After 10 weeks of football, the first CFP rankings were released on Tuesday. Here are the 12 highest-ranked teams in the first of six weekly College Football Playoff rankings: 1. Oregon (9-0), 2. Ohio State (7-1), 3. Georgia (7-1), 4. Miami (9-0), 5. Texas (7-1), 6. Penn State (7-1), 7. Tennessee (7-1), 8. Indiana (9-0), 9. BYU (8-0), 10. Notre Dame (7-1), 11. Alabama (8-2) and 12. Boise State (7-1).
The Top 12 includes four Big Ten teams, four SEC teams, one Big 12 team, one ACC team, one Independent and one Mountain West team. Just missing the Top 12 were 13. SMU (8-1), 14. Texas A&M (7-2) and 15. LSU (6-2).
Of the 12 teams, only Georgia and Alabama have tough games this week. Georgia is on the road at Ole Miss, while Alabama is on the road at LSU.
In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, North Dakota State (9-1) is No. 1, followed by 2. Montana State (9-0), 3. South Dakota State (7-2), 4. UC Davis (8-1), 5. South Dakota (6-2) and 6. Southeast Missouri (8-1). Harvard (6-1) is 25.
Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has added former Houston and West Virginia coach Dana Holgerson to his staff as an offensive consultant. Holgerson will be leaving TCU where he is currently a defensive consultant for the Frogs, studying the opponents' offenses.
In Los Angeles, USC coach Lincoln Riley is benching quarterback Miller Moss in favor of UNLV transfer Jayden Maiava. Maiava transferred to USC during the offseason. The Trojans (4-5) have lost four of their last five games. Riley is feeling the pressure.
Class of 2026 quarterback Cole Leinart (6-4, 190), the son of former USC quarterback and 2004 Heisman Trophy winner Matt Leinart, has committed to SMU. The younger Leinart plays for Redondo Union High School in Redondo Beach, California.
ESPN’s College GameDay is in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, for the Alabama-LSU game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Lubbock, Texas, for the Colorado-Texas Tech game. SEC Network’s SEC Nation is in Oxford, Mississippi, for the Georgia-Ole Miss game.
Enjoy your weekend!
Touchdown Tom
November 7, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Eleven’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Georgia (7-1) at Ole Miss (7-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – All right Georgia’s two weeks of fun begins this week against Ole Miss in Oxford and ends next week against Tennessee in Athens. But first things first – Ole Miss. The Magnolias had their biggest offensive output of the season last week against Arkansas – 63 points and 694 total yards. I can’t imagine Ole Miss has anything left for Georgia. The Magnolias not only have a good offense, but they are also good on defense too. That is except for one area – pass defense. Ole Miss is 91st in the country on pass defense. So, this could be Carson Beck’s opening. Beck is averaging 288 yards a game passing. But Jaxson Dart is averaging 357 yards a game passing. Jaxson Dart says, “Hold my Magnolia while I take care of this Dawg.” – Ole Miss 28, Georgia 27.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Alabama (6-2) at LSU (6-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – If Georgia at Ole Miss isn’t enough, how about Alabama at LSU. That should keep your football libido peaked. The Alabama-LSU game follows the Georgia-Ole Miss game. You don’t even have to change channels. How’s that for convenience? Between Bama and LSU, one of them should be ready to break loose. The Tide hasn’t played well since the first half of the Georgia game. Other than in bits and pieces – a quarter here, a quarter there – I’m not sure LSU has played a good game all season. So yes, one of them should be ready to break loose. Big Al tramples little Mike – Alabama 24, LSU 23.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Colorado (6-2) at Texas Tech (6-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – After a wobbly start, Colorado is on a roll. The Buffaloes hope to continue the roll in Lubbock, Texas, this weekend. Except for a running game, the Colorado offense has played well all season. What’s changed is the Colorado defense. It has gotten better. So, the question is can Texas Tech penetrate the Buffaloes defense. The Red Raiders have a strong passing attack. But they have a weak defense. This game could easily be a high-scoring affair. The Raiders score higher – Texas Tech 31, Colorado 26.
4. South Carolina (5-3) at Vanderbilt (6-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – These two teams are very similar. South Carolina is averaging 31 points a game and giving up 19 points a game. Vanderbilt is averaging 30 points a game and giving up 21 points a game. You can’t get much closer than that. Both teams are coming off of good wins – the Gamecocks over Texas A&M and the Commodores over Auburn. Vanderbilt’s three losses were by a combined 10 points. The two losses in the SEC were by three points each. Two of South Carolina’s three losses (all SEC) were by a combined five points – three points to LSU and two points to Alabama. So, this is shaping up to be an exciting game. The Commodores provide the excitement – Vanderbilt 14, South Carolina 12.
5. Michigan (5-4) at Indiana (9-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Indiana continues to hang in there. The Hoosiers are having their best season ever. Michigan will provide some resistance, mostly on defense. The Wolverines have struggled to get an offense going. The Hoosiers definitely haven’t struggled to get their offense going. Indiana is averaging 47 points a game on offense. The Hoosiers are holding opponents to 14 points a game. That doesn’t spell well for Michigan. The Maize are in a haze – Indiana 28, Michigan 22.
6. Army (8-0) at North Texas (5-3) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – The big difference between these two teams is defense. Army has one and North Texas doesn’t. Army is giving up 11 points a game, while North Texas is giving up 37 points a game. Both teams are big on offense. North Texas averages 41 points a game and Army averages 38 points a game. But Army desperately needs quarterback Bryson Daily back for this game. Daily sat out last week with an undisclosed injury. As Daily goes, so goes Army’s offense. The offense at North Texas depends on Chandler Morris. And he is healthy. Morris is averaging 359 yards a game passing. A shootout, but Army’s “D” prevails – Army 36, North Texas 30.
7. BYU (8-0) at Utah (4-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 10:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – BYU is having an amazing season. The Cougars are undefeated and ranked 9th in the CFP poll. They weren’t predicted to be this good at preseason. Much of BYU’s success is the play of quarterback Jake Retzlaff. He has been dependable. Utah has been plagued with injuries at the quarterback position. Two quarterbacks are out with injuries. As a result, Utah’s offense has been nonexistent. To their benefit, the Utes have still been playing pretty good defense. But if you can’t score, you can’t win. This is a big rivalry. But the Utes can’t rival the Cougars – BYU 24, Utah 18.
8. Miami (9-0) at Georgia Tech (5-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – Last year, Georgia Tech pulled off a game-ending upset of Miami. The chances of that happening this year are slim. With Cam Ward at quarterback, Miami has one of the most potent offenses in the country – averaging 47 points a game. Tech’s only hope may be the Miami defense. The Canes’ defense has a tendency to get a little sloppy at times. But the Yellow Jackets offense can be a little sloppy too. Cam avoids Buzz’s sting – Miami 30, Georgia Tech 23.
9. Oklahoma (5-4) at Missouri (6-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:45 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – Missouri is a little banged up with injuries. Quarterback Brady Cook may or may not play. Without Cook, Mizzou’s offense is hurting. The Tigers’ running back Nate Noel is out with an injury too. Mizzou may have to win on defense against Oklahoma. The Sooners are hurting both on offense and defense. They haven’t shown much of either during the season. Both teams may struggle in this game. Mizzou has the least struggles – Missouri 24, Oklahoma 20.
10. Clemson (6-2) at Virginia Tech (5-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Clemson was riding a six-game winning streak until the Tigers ran into Louisville last week. That winning streak is over. Now Clemson is on the road at Virginia Tech and this one won’t be easy either. The Tigers have no problem scoring – 39 points a game. It’s the defense where there can be problems. Clemson and Virginia Tech are similar in many ways, other than the fact that the Hokies have lost four games. Make it five games after this week – Clemson 30, Virginia Tech 27.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
West Virginia (4-4) at Cincinnati (5-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FS1 – The pundits seem to think that Neal Brown needs to win six or more games to keep his job. Anything less than six wins and he is toast. That means he has to win two of the remaining four games. West Virginia is capable of beating Cincinnati. The question is can they? It is uncertain if WVU quarterback Garrett Greene will play. He’s nursing an injury. But my guess is WVU has a better chance of beating the Bearcats if he doesn’t play. Nico Marchiol looked pretty good against Arizona State. WVU will have a new defensive coordinator. The old one was fired. Cincinnati’s offense is no better or no worse than WVU’s. The Bearcats’ defense is a little better. But I don’t think Neal Brown can win games against teams with a winning record. The Bearcats have a winning record – Cincinnati 28, West Virginia 24.
Florida (4-4) at Texas (7-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – I don’t know if 6-6 will save Billy Napier or not. He probably needs to be 7-5 or better. And there ain’t no way he will win eight games. So, he needs to win three of the final four games. That doesn’t look encouraging either. Florida is not going to win this week. Not against Texas at Texas. It looks like quarterback D.J. Lagway will play. He left the game last week with a hamstring injury. With Lagway playing, the Gators could keep the game reasonably close. Florida’s defense has been playing better. But the Longhorns’ offense is potent. And the Texas defense is nothing to laugh at. Bevo goes Gator hunting – Texas 37, Florida 17.
Duke (6-3) at NC State (5-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – This is usually the time of the year when Duke teams seem to run out of steam. A combination of injuries and lack of depth catches up with the Dookies. They are capable of beating NC State. But will they? The Wolfpack seems to have gotten its act together. They have won two-straight games. However, the competition wasn’t that good. NC State has the better offense. Duke has the better defense. Offense wins – NC State 28, Duke 21.
Purdue (1-7) at Ohio State (7-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – It’s not a question of will Purdue lose. It’s how much the Boilers will lose by. They are giving up 37 points a game. After beating Penn State last week, the Buckeyes may take it easy this week. They may not be too hard on Purdue. After all, Indiana and Michigan are coming up for the Buckeyes. Purdue is just a little bump in the road. But the Buckeyes have a smooth ride – Ohio State 38, Purdue 7.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Florida Atlantic (2-6) at East Carolina (4-4) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 8 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN2….
Navy (6-2) at South Florida (4-4) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN2….
Marist (0-9) at Stetson (2-6) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
North Greenville (4-4) at West Florida (6-2) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 2 pm ET, Saturday….
Bethune-Cookman (2-7) at Southern (5-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Florida A&M (5-3) at Prairie View (4-5) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
UCF (4-5) at Arizona State (6-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2….
Florida State (1-8) at Notre Dame (7-1) – (ACC vs. Ind.) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC….
Quotes of the Week
“Pry is a great guy. The Hokies have made noticeable progress under him year to year,” Clemson coach Dabo Swinney, on Virginia Tech coach Brent Pry.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(The next CFW – Week 11 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 11.)
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