CFW Week 9 Forecast – Tigers-Aggies for sole possession atop the SEC
It’s been a wild and crazy season
Going into the weekend, there are no so-called “blockbuster games” on the docket. However, that being said, I have a feeling that once Saturday night is over, several of the matchups this weekend will end up being blockbuster games. I just feel it in my bones. It’s been that kind of season. We’ve already had four different No. 1 teams – Georgia (4 weeks), Texas (1 week), Alabama (1 week), Texas (1 week again) and Oregon (1 week). And there are still six weeks to go, plus the conference championship week. It’s been a wild and crazy season and it’s going to get wilder and crazier.
If you don’t think it’s been wild and crazy, look again. Eight weeks into the season, Indiana is 7-0. Florida State is 1-6. LSU and Texas A&M (not Georgia, Texas, Alabama or Ole Miss) are tied for the lead in the SEC. Alabama and Ole Miss have two losses already. Alabama lost to Vanderbilt. Ole Miss lost to Kentucky. Army and Navy are 7-0 and 6-0 respectively. Lincoln Riley’s previous team – Oklahoma – is 4-3. His current team – USC – is 3-4. Duke is 6-1. Notre Dame lost to Northern Illinois. BYU and Iowa State (not Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas or Arizona) are tied for the lead of the Big 12. Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona are a combined 12-16. Ohio State lost to Oregon. Michigan is 4-3. Pitt is 6-0. Three of the Top 4 teams in the country are Big Ten teams. Vanderbilt is ranked in the Top 25. Eight weeks into the season and that is pretty wild and crazy to me. What other surprises are on the horizon?
Meanwhile, back to this weekend’s games.
The biggest games this weekend appear to be in the Big Ten and the SEC. Starting in the Big Ten, No. 20 Illinois (6-1) is at No. 1 Oregon (7-0). Can Brett Bielema’s defense cause problems for the Ducks? Not likely, but you never know.
No. 3 Penn State (6-0) is at Wisconsin (5-2). This could be interesting. Like Illinois against Oregon, can the Badgers defense cause problems for the Nittany Lions’ offense? Never underestimate Luke Fickell.
Then there is Nebraska (5-2) at No. 4 Ohio State (5-1). Can the Huskers bounce back after last week’s fiasco in Bloomington? If not, this one could be over before it starts. It may already be over. Something about wandering in the wilderness.
I’ll be keeping an eye on two other Big Ten games – Washington (4-3) at No. 13 Indiana (7-0), and Michigan State (4-3) at Michigan (4-3). Indiana has to start feeling the pressure sometime, while Michigan State should be fired up after last week’s win over Iowa.
The top two teams in the SEC go head-to-head in College Station – No. 8 LSU (6-1) at No. 14 Texas A&M (6-1). Wow! What a contest this should be. Kyle Field will be electric. Brian Kelly could be shocking.
How about No. 6 Texas (6-1) at No. 25 Vanderbilt (5-2)? Can Vandy do it again? Or, will this one be over at halftime? It’s worth checking out. The “Eyes of Texas” should sound good with a Nashville twang.
No. 21 Missouri (6-1) is on the road at No. 15 Alabama (5-2). The key here is Mizzou quarterback Brady Cook. Will he or won’t he play? Cook is suffering from a lower leg injury. And how will Alabama respond to the loss at Tennessee? If Kalen DeBoer knows what’s good for him, the Tide better respond well.
Another game I’m keeping an eye on in the SEC is Oklahoma (4-3) at No. 18 Ole Miss (5-2). Both teams have suffered their share of setbacks. The Sooners have been more later than sooner. Which team will step up Saturday?
The ACC has two feature games. How about Syracuse (5-1) at No. 19 Pitt (6-1)? Kyle McCord vs. Eli Holstein. The passing in this game could make you dizzy. And how about No. 22 SMU (6-1) at Duke (6-1)? I’m lovin’ this matchup. SMU’s offense against Duke’s defense. If Duke wins, will the Dookies rush the field? No, the Dookies only rush the field to get a good camping out spot for the next day’s basketball game.
Two other games I’m curious about in the ACC are Louisville (4-3) at Boston College (4-3) and Georgia Tech (5-3) at Virginia Tech (4-3). The winners here can still have a season, while the season could be over for the losers.
In the Big 12, Cincinnati (5-2) at Colorado (5-2) should be an intriguing contest. Both teams are getting better each week. Which one will be the best on Saturday? Coach Prime still wants to know what a Bearcat is. Another contest in the Big 12 worth keeping an eye on is No. 11 BYU (7-0) at UCF (3-4). The Knights almost knocked off an undefeated team last week – Iowa State. It came down to the final seconds. UCF was on the road against the Cyclones. The Knights are home against BYU. Could an upset be brewing?
No. 12 Notre Dame (6-1) tangles with No. 24 Navy (6-0) in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Can the Irish defense handle the triple option? The play of Navy quarterback Blake Horvath could be a threat to Notre Dame. Let’s see, Navy starts with an “N.” Northern Illinois starts with an “N.”
Two Group of Five encounters will be interesting to watch. No. 17 Boise State (5-1) pays a visit to UNLV (6-1) in Las Vegas. Can the Rebels stop the running of Ashton Jeanty? No one else has. Jeanty could be the difference. Jeanty could win the Heisman Trophy.
Tulane (5-2) at North Texas (5-2) promises to be a dandy. Chandler Morris is an exciting quarterback. He may be too much excitement for the Green Wave. The guy has passed for 2,424 yards.
This week, ESPN’s College GameDay is in Bloomington, Indiana, for the Washington-Indiana game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Columbus, Ohio, for the Nebraska-Ohio State game, and SEC Nation is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, for the Missouri-Alabama game.
Have a good weekend. Enjoy the games!
In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, we have a new No. 1 team. North Dakota State (7-1) is No. 1, followed by 2. Montana State (8-0), 3. South Dakota State (5-2), 4. South Dakota (6-1), 5. UC Davis (7-1) and 6. Southeast Missouri State (7-1). Dartmouth (5-0) is 22nd.
Major League Baseball pitcher Fernando Valenzuela died on Tuesday. Valenzuela played 17 seasons from 1980 to 1997 (except 1992) for six MLB teams – but primarily for the Los Angeles Dodgers. He pitched 11 of his 17 seasons with the Dodgers. His big season was 1981 when he won the NL Cy Young Award, was named Rookie of the Year, played in the All-Star game, was the MLB strikeout leader, and was a World Series champion with the Dodgers. A native of Etchonhuaquila, Sonora, Mexico, Fernando Valenzuela Anguamea was 63.
Touchdown Tom
October 24, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Nine’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Illinois (6-1) at Oregon (7-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Oregon is the No. 1 team this week. The Ducks are the fourth team to be in the No. 1 spot this season. The other three teams – Georgia, Texas and Alabama – didn’t hold onto the top spot very long. Now the pressure is on Oregon to remain No. 1. Illinois is no pushover. The Banned Indians can play some football – more so on defense than offense. The Illinois offense is between below average and bad. The Illinois defense is above average to good. But you can’t take the Banned Indians for granted. They are deceiving. Oregon definitely has the advantage. The Ducks are better than Illinois on offense and defense. On offense, Oregon has quarterback Dillon Gabriel, running back Jordan James and a corps of good receivers. Still, this could be an interesting game. It never rains in Autzen – Oregon 27, Illinois 15.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Notre Dame (6-1) at Navy (6-0) – (Ind. vs. AAC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Navy is 4th in the country in rushing yards and 4th in the country in points scored. The Middies are averaging 45 points a game. On offense, Navy’s biggest weapon is quarterback Blake Horvath. He’s a real torpedo. Horvath can run, he can pass and he can score touchdowns. Unfortunately for the Sailors, you can’t say much about Navy’s defense – not much good anyway. Notre Dame’s strength is its defense. All phases of the Irish defense are ranked no worse than 30th in the country. Notre Dame is 5th in points allowed – 12 per game. For having a 6-1 record, the Irish offense isn’t all that impressive. But with Navy’s weak defense, you don’t need an impressive offense. The Middies have the bell-bottom blues – Notre Dame 30, Navy 21.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Syracuse (5-1) at Pitt (6-0) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – There is a big difference between the Pitt offense and the Pitt defense. The Panthers’ offense is 10th in the country in points scored per game – 41. And Pitt’s offense is 12th in the country in passing yards – 305 per game. The strong passing is the result of Eli Holstein. He has passed for 1,697 yards. The Pitt defense, on the other hand, is giving up 24 points a game. That has to be a concern for the Panthers because with quarterback Kyle McCord, Syracuse is a better passing team than Pitt. The Cuse are 2nd in the country, averaging 365 yards passing a game through the air. McCord has passed for 2,160 yards. Like Pitt, Syracuse is a little ragged on defense – giving up 25 points a game. This contest could end up being one of those basketball score games. Pitt has won four of the last five meetings between the two schools. Make it five of the last six – Pitt 31, Syracuse 30.
4. LSU (6-1) at Texas A&M (6-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – These two teams seem to get better and better every week. They are the only two SEC teams undefeated in conference play. They are tied for the lead in the SEC. Texas A&M lost its opening game to Notre Dame and has won every game since. Likewise, LSU lost its opening game to USC and has won every game since. Obviously, one of them has to lose this week. The Tigers are winning on the strength of quarterback Garrett Nussmeier. He has passed for 2,222 yards and 18 touchdowns. He has completed 65% of his passes. Defense along with a team effort on offense is winning games for Texas A&M. The Aggies’ defense is good. A&M’s offense is not so good, but not the worst. This could be some game. The winner will have sole possession atop the SEC conference. Mike has a grin on his face – LSU 23, Texas A&M 21.
5. SMU (6-1) at Duke (6-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – Both teams are having quite a season. SMU is generally good on offense. The Mustangs are 11th in the country in points scored – 41 a game. They are all over the place on defense – strong against the run and weak against the pass. SMU is 6th in the country in rushing yards allowed per game – 87. Duke actually has a terrible offense. Bad in all elements. But they have managed to get by. On defense, the Dookies are a different story. They are very good. So their challenge will be stopping the SMU offense. They don’t – SMU 30, Duke 19.
6. Penn State (6-0) at Wisconsin (5-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – This game should be a good Big Ten battle. Wisconsin will be trying to pull off the upset. That won’t be easy. Penn State is solid on offense and excellent on defense. On offense, Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar doesn’t always put up splashy numbers. But Allar is a stable, dependable and solid quarterback. Penn State’s defense is no worse than 15th in the country in all phases of the defense. They are 10th in rushing yards allowed per game and 9th in points allowed per game – 15. Wisconsin, on the other hand, has a weak offense with a darn good defense. The offense just plays well together as a group and takes advantage of the other teams’ mistakes. The defense is 7th in the country in passing yards allowed per game – 156. A tough win for the Nitts – Penn State 24, Wisconsin 18.
7. Texas (6-1) at Vanderbilt (6-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – Can Vanderbilt do to Texas what the Commodores did to Alabama? Probably not. But they will give Texas all they’ve got. And who knows how the Longhorns will react to the loss to Georgia. Texas has a good offense. The Horns are averaging 39 points a game. And the Texas defense is one of the best, if not the best, in the country – giving up 10 points a game. Vandy will definitely have a tough time trying to score against Texas. The Commodores are very average on offense. It depends on how well Texas can contain quarterback Diego Pavia. He can be elusive. The Vandy defense is very average too. The Longhorns go on a stampede in Nashville – Texas 35, Vanderbilt 22.
8. Boise State (5-1) at UNLV (6-1) – (MWC vs. MWC) – 10:30 pm ET, Friday, CBSSN – Boise State, currently the highest-ranked Group of Five team, has a high-ranked offense. The Broncos are averaging 47 points a game – 3rd in the country. They are second in the country in rushing yards and fourth in total yards. Boise State can attribute the rushing yards to Ashton Jeanty. Jeanty has rushed for 1,248 yards. Boise State’s defense isn’t the worst, but it is weak. This is going to be an interesting game because UNLV’s offense is 5th in the country in points scored – 44 points a game. And the Rebels are 5th in rushing yards. Like Boise State, UNLV’s defense isn’t so sharp. So, look for wild times in Las Vegas. The Rebels can’t keep the Wild Horses away – Boise State 31, UNLV 29.
9. Missouri (6-1) at Alabama (5-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – After Alabama lost to Vanderbilt, the Tide barely beat South Carolina. Does that mean that after Bama lost to Tennessee, the Tide will barely beat Missouri. We’ll see. Alabama better get its act together because Missouri is a good football team. The Tide is just a little better than average on offense and a little better than average on defense. Nothing is exceptional on either side of the ball. Missouri is similar on offense – not great, but not bad. The difference is on defense. The Tigers have been playing good defense. They are 9th in the country in total yards allowed. The Tigers are 10th in the country in points allowed. A close call in Tuscaloosa. The Tigers get caught in a rip Tide – Alabama 28, Missouri 26.
10. Cincinnati (5-2) at Colorado (5-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 10:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Cincinnati continues to surprise. But the surprises could be running out. Colorado in Boulder is a tough one. The Bearcats are better than average on offense. Quarterback Brendan Sorsby has passed for 1,928 yards. On defense, things are not so good for the Bearcats, especially against the pass. And that’s where Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders can make some hay. Sanders has passed for 2,268 yards, averaging 324 yards a game. Colorado’s offense is 7th in the country in passing. But, like Cincinnati, things aren’t so good for the Buffaloes on defense. They are giving up 22 points a game. An interesting matchup in Boulder. Ralphie never did like Cats – Colorado 30, Cincinnati 20.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
West Virginia (3-4) at Arizona (3-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 6 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – These two teams have been two of the most unpredictable teams in college football this season. However, predictability may be settling into Arizona. After starting the season 3-1, the Wildcats have lost their last three games. Arizona’s offense and defense are equally bad. The Wildcats are averaging 23 points a game, while giving up 28 points a game. Predictability may be settling into West Virginia too, if the Mountaineers lose this game. WVU has lost its last two games. Like Arizona, WVU’s offense and defense are equally bad. The Mountaineers are averaging 28 points a game, while giving up 29 points a game. Compared to Arizona, the Mountaineers’ offense is a little better. The defenses are about the same. I can’t believe I’m actually doing this. Swamp Mama may need to take my temperature. But, as bad as I think WVU has been lately, I think the Mounties will find a way to beat Arizona. Call me crazy. The Eers find a still in the desert – West Virginia 24, Arizona 23.
Nebraska (5-2) at Ohio State (5-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – The best thing Nebraska can hope for is that Ohio State watched the Huskers’ game against Indiana. If so, the Buckeyes will be vastly overconfident coming into the game against Nebraska. Ohio State might even play the cheerleaders or the band members. Then the Huskers have a chance. Realistically, the Buckeyes will be out to prove something. Two weeks ago, Ohio State lost to Oregon. The Buckeyes had last week off – a week to get their act together. This week, Ohio State will be fully loaded ready to play Ohio State football. It could be bad for the Huskers. The Buckeyes are good on offense and defense. The offense averages 44 points a game. The defense holds opponents to 11 points a game. Nebraska is a mixed bag – bad on offense, good on defense. Don’t look for the Huskers to score on the Buckeyes. And after the Indiana game, who knows what the Nebraska defense will do. Herbie can’t crack Brutus – Ohio State 35, Nebraska 16.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Sam Houston (5-2) at FIU (2-5) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 7:30 pm ET, Tuesday, ESPNU….
Presbyterian (2-6) at Stetson (2-4) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Jackson State (5-2) at Bethune-Cookman (1-6) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
BYU (7-0) at UCF (3-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN….
Shorter (2-3) at West Florida (4-2) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 4 pm ET, Saturday….
Southern (4-3) at Florida A&M (3-3) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Florida State (1-6) at Miami (7-0) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN….
Quotes of the Week
“A million people can figure out there’s a problem, but ultimately, it’s about the solutions. It’s what are you doing to fix it and make it better. It’s a daily process for us,” Florida State coach Mike Norvell on the 1-6 season.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(The next CFW – Week 9 Results – will be posted Monday morning, October 28.)
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