CFW Week 10 Forecast – A tough season for quarterbacks
Ohio State at Penn State: Will the
Lions win for the first time since 2016?
Or will the Buckeyes make it eight straight?
Happy Halloween college football fans! Maybe your team will be ghoulish this weekend.
Speaking of Halloween, it has been a scary season for quarterbacks – downright spooky.
Two quarterbacks have retired from the game of football for health reasons – North Carolina State’s Grayson McCall and Michigan’s Jack Tuttle. Three more quarterbacks were knocked out for the remainder of the season due to injuries – Mississippi State’s Bake Shapen, Florida’s Graham Mertz and Utah’s Cam Rising.
Two weeks ago, Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke left the game against Nebraska with a hand injury. Rourke missed last week’s game against Washington. He is expected to return to action this week, as Indiana plays Michigan State.
Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers missed a couple of games earlier this season due to an injury. West Virginia quarterback Garrett Greene missed last week’s game against Arizona with an upper body injury.
Iowa quarterback Cade McNamara and Georgia Tech quarterback Haynes King are both out with undisclosed injuries. Missouri quarterback Brady Cook is out with a leg injury.
Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton received a shoulder injury in last week’s game against TCU. He exited the game in the third quarter. However, Morton is expected to play this week against Iowa State.
Undefeated Pitt plays one-loss SMU this weekend and the quarterbacks for both teams are questionable starts. Pitt’s Eli Holstein and SMU’s Kevin Jennings both have undisclosed injuries.
Another game-time call this week is Penn State quarterback Drew Allar. Allar left last week’s game against Wisconsin with a left knee injury.
To take the cake, there was UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka. Sluka wasn’t injured. But he walked away and quit the team. He said he wasn’t being paid the NIL money he was promised.
So, there have not been many treats for several quarterbacks this season.
Speaking of Penn State, the Nittany Lions are involved in this week’s “Game of the Week” – No. 4 Ohio State (6-1) at No. 3 Penn State (7-0). There was a time when Penn State dominated this series. But for the past 20 years or so, it has been pretty much all Ohio State. The Nittany Lions haven’t won since 2016. After the close call with Nebraska, I’m sure Ryan Day hasn’t been a happy camper this week. What treats will James Franklin have for the Buckeyes?
The other two undefeated teams in the Big Ten have some stiff competition this week. And both are playing in the state of Michigan. First, there is No. 1 Oregon (8-0) at Michigan (5-3). Ann Arbor is never an easy place to play. Then No. 13 Indiana (8-0) travels to Michigan State (4-4). The Hoosiers better beware.
I’m anxious to see how two other Big Ten games turn out. Minnesota (5-3) at No. 24 Illinois (6-2). The Gophers found an offense last week, while the Banned Indians lost a defense. Will Illinois bounce back? Finally, Wisconsin (5-3) at Iowa (5-3). This one could be a doozy.
The ACC has a few good contests Saturday. For starters – No. 18 Pitt (7-0) at No. 20 SMU (7-1). Both teams may be using backup quarterbacks. Both teams are having unbelievable seasons. Next, we have Duke (6-2) at No. 5 Miami (8-0). Duke’s two losses are by a combined 11 points – one an overtime loss. Miami has had its share of close calls. Will the Dookies make it close?
Also on the ACC platter is Louisville (5-3) at No. 11 Clemson (6-1). No one has beaten Louisville by more than seven points. Only one team has beat Clemson. Tyler Shough vs. Cade Klubnik. Then we have Virginia Tech (5-3) at Syracuse (6-2). The Hokies have been getting better and better each week. But if Kyle McCord is on, watch out for the Orange.
In the Big 12, another undefeated team puts its record on the line – Texas Tech (5-3) at No. 11 Iowa State (7-0). Tech knows how to score. But the Red Raiders can’t keep the other team from scoring. Sounds like a shootout to me.
The SEC is always good for some enticing games and this week has three of them. How about No. 10 Texas A&M (7-1) at South Carolina (4-3). That should stir your grits. Can Cocky pull off the upset?
Everybody loves a cocktail party and there is a big one in Jacksonville. It’s an outdoor cocktail party – Florida (4-3) vs. No. 2 Georgia (6-1). Does Billy Napier have some tricks up his sleeve? He better. He’ll need them. Lastly, we wind up with No. 19 Ole Miss (6-2) at Arkansas (5-3). Lane Kiffin wallows with the Pigs. Sam Pittman says nothing like getting a little muddy. It could be down and dirty for the Magnolias.
Of the two remaining undefeated teams, one is off this week and the other should have an easy time of it. No. 9 BYU (8-0) has the weekend off. No. 21 Army (7-0) should have no problem grounding Air Force (1-6).
Enjoy the games but watch out for those ghosts and goblins!
Both ESPN’s College GameDay and FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff are in State College, Pennsylvania, for the Ohio State-Penn State game. The SEC Network’s SEC Nation is in Jacksonville, Florida, for the Georgia-Florida game – the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party.
Amid a five-game losing streak, UCF coach Gus Malzahn fired his defensive coordinator Ted Roof on Monday. Assistant defensive coordinator Addison Williams will take over the DC responsibilities for the remainder of the season. The Knights’ defense has given up 166 points during the five-game losing span. Malzahn also announced that he will no longer be handling the offensive play calling. He is turning that duty over to his offensive coordinator Tim Harris.
Firing defensive coordinators in the Big 12 must be contagious. A day after Ted Roof was fired at UCF, West Virginia coach Neal Brown fired his defensive coordinator, Jordan Lesley. Brown replaced Lesley with linebackers and special teams coach Jeff Koontz. WVU is giving up 28 points a game this season (33 points a game in its last three games) and the Mountaineers are 114th in the country in pass defense.
By the way, the Florida-Georgia game won’t be played in Jacksonville in 2026 and 2027. EverBank Stadium, the home of the NFL’s Jacksonville Jaguars, is being partially torn down and rebuilt. The stadium’s capacity will be severely reduced in 2026 and closed entirely in 2027. The 2026 Florida-Georgia game will be played in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, and the 2027 game will be played in Raymond James Stadium in Tampa.
Florida and Georgia have met 102 times since 1915 and 92 of those meetings took place in Jacksonville. All but two of the meetings since 1932 have been played in Jacksonville. The teams played on-campus games in 1994 and 1995 when the old Gator Bowl Stadium was torn down and rebuilt for the Jacksonville Jaguars. Interestingly, since the stadium was rebuilt for the Jaguars in the mid-1990s at a smaller capacity than the old Gator Bowl Stadium, they have always added temporary seating each year for the Florida-Georgia game. The Jaguars draw between 40,000 and 60,000 a game. The Florida-Georgia game typically draws more than 80,000 a game.
Florida outdraws the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Miami Dolphins and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Georgia outdraws the Atlanta Falcons, LSU outdraws the New Orleans Saints, Tennessee outdraws the Tennessee Titans, Penn State outdraws the Philadelphia Eagles and the Pittsburgh Steelers, Ohio State outdraws the Cleveland Browns and the Cincinnati Bengals, Michigan and Michigan State outdraw the Detroit Lions, Wisconsin outdraws the Green Bay Packers, Washington outdraws the Seattle Seahawks and Texas and Texas A&M outdraw the Dallas Cowboys and the Houston Texans. College football rules!
In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, North Dakota State (8-1) is No. 1, followed by 2. Montana State (8-0), 3. South Dakota State (6-2), 4. UC Davis (7-1), 5. South Dakota (6-2), and 6. Southeast Missouri State (8-1). Dartmouth (6-0) is 22.
Touchdown Tom
October 31, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(The next CFW – Week 10 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 4.)
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Ten’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Ohio State (6-1) at Penn State (7-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – Will Penn State quarterback Drew Allar play or not? Allar left last week’s game against Wisconsin at halftime with a knee injury. He didn’t return. As it turned out, Penn State didn’t miss Allar. Backup Beau Pribula was 11-13-0, passing for 98 yards and one touchdown. With or without Allar, Penn State’s offense is good, but not the best. The best at Penn State is its defense, holding opponents to 14 points a game. Nebraska’s defense found a way to stop Ohio State’s offense. Perhaps Penn State’s defense can too. The Buckeyes are averaging 40 points a game. Like the Nittany Lions, Ohio State’s defense is better than its offense. And that is saying something because the Ohio State offense is good. Overall, Ohio State is 24-14 against Penn State. The Buckeye’s and Nittany Lions first met in 1912. They played intermittently until 1993 and have played annually since 1993. Ohio State is 17-4 against Penn State in the last 21 games (since 2002). The Buckeyes have won the last seven games, and the last 11 out of 12. Well, the seven-game win streak comes to an end – Penn State 21, Ohio State 20.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Pitt (7-0) at SMU (7-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – SMU was lucky to beat Duke last week in overtime. The Mustangs had six turnovers. They may be lucky to win again this week. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is out with an injury, and it is unknown if he will play. The Mustangs are averaging 39 points a game. Pitt is in the same boat as SMU. Quarterback Eli Holstein is injured and may or may not play. The Panthers are averaging 41 points a game. Both teams are a bit weak on defense, but Pitt is the weaker of the two. The Panthers can’t pin the tail on the Pony – SMU 30, Pitt 24.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Duke (6-2) at Miami (8-0) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Duke definitely relies on its defense to get through its games. The best part of the Duke offense is quarterback Maalik Murphy. He has passed for 1,795 yards. On offense, the Dookies try to take advantage of the other team’s mistakes. Unfortunately for Duke, the Miami offense doesn’t make that many mistakes. Quarterback Cam Ward has only thrown five interceptions in eight games, while passing for 2,746 yards. The Canes are averaging 47 points a game and have the best offense in the country. Miami’s defense can be had, but Duke’s offense isn’t that strong. The Dookies get caught in a Miami vice – Miami 28, Duke 21.
4. Oregon (8-0) at Michigan (5-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Can Oregon keep it up? Or will the Ducks cave. No, Michigan isn’t that strong this year. But the game is in Ann Arbor. The undefeated and No. 1 Ducks have to be feeling some pressure. Oregon’s offense is a lot better than Michigan’s offense – a lot. The defenses of the two teams are about the same. Oregon’s is slightly better. The Ducks need to stay alert. They do – Oregon 27, Michigan 16.
5. Indiana (8-0) at Michigan State (4-4) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, Peacock – Like Oregon, Indiana has to be feeling the pressure too. It’s not easy to stay undefeated. The Hoosiers are supposed to have their starting quarterback – Kurtus Rourke – back for this game. He has been out with a thumb injury. And Indiana didn’t exactly miss him. Backup quarterback Tayven Jackson has been superb. So, now Indiana has two good quarterbacks. Michigan State is no slouch. Although the Spartans have lost four of their last five games, quarterback Aidan Chiles has shown improvement. The Hoosiers get out of East Lansing with their ninth win – Indiana 28, Michigan State 20.
6. Texas Tech (5-3) vs. Iowa State (7-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – There are eight undefeated teams. Six of them are facing some stiff competition this week. Iowa State is one of the six. The scary part of Texas Tech teams in recent years has been the Red Raiders’ offense. Not their defense. Texas Tech is like that again this year. The offense is scary. The defense isn’t. Tech is averaging 38 points a game. The Red Raiders defense is giving up 36 points a game. On offense, Texas Tech can run with Tahj Brooks and pass with Behren Morton. On defense, the Red Raiders can’t do anything. Iowa State has a so-so offense. But it will have no problem against Tech. The Cyclones’ defense is good. But it will have a challenge from Tech. Cy makes the Red Raiders sigh – Iowa State 33, Texas Tech 27.
7. Texas A&M (7-1) at South Carolina (4-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Is this a trap game for Texas A&M? South Carolina is a deceptive team. The Aggies are coming off a tough win over LSU. But they are off next week. And after that, they play New Mexico State. So, this shouldn’t be a trap game. However, as I said the Gamecocks are deceptive. South Carolina is 4-3. But they are seven points away from being 6-1. Only Ole Miss put a licking on the Gamecocks. LSU and Alabama were lucky to beat South Carolina. The better side of South Carolina is its defense. That’s where the Gamecocks try to win their games. Texas A&M is 7-1 and 5-0 in SEC play. Yet the Aggies aren’t particularly strong on offense or defense. They just do what they have to do to get the job done. And will Marcel Reed quarterback A&M this week? He replaced Connor Weighman last week and turned a loss into a win. This is going to be an interesting game. Ags make it to 6-0 in the SEC – Texas AM 26, South Carolina 23.
8. Louisville (5-3) at Clemson (6-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Does Louisville have a chance in this game? For six-straight games, Clemson has been playing inspired football. The Tigers are averaging 42 points a game, with one of the best offenses in the country. Quarterback Cade Klubnik has stepped up, passing for 1,836 yards. Oddly, it is the Clemson defense that can be loosey-goosey at times. They are giving up 23 points a game. So, there is hope for Louisville. The Cardinals played Notre Dame, SMU and Miami tough, losing to all three by only seven points. Tyler Shough is a good quarterback. There is hope, but not much – Clemson 30, Louisville 17.
9. Florida (4-3) vs. Georgia (6-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Florida last beat Georgia in 2020 – the COVID season. Since then, the Dawgs have won three-straight games by a total of 72 points – 34-7, 42-20 and 43-20. That should give the Gators some incentive. Florida’s offense has found ways to score. The Gators are averaging 31 points a game. Quarterback D.J. Lagway gets better and better each week. Even the Florida defense has been playing better of late. But they are giving up 24 points a game. Georgia will take advantage of that. But the Dawgs’ offense is strange – strong on passing, weak on running. If Carson Beck is on, it will be tough to stop Georgia. Beck has passed for 1,993 yards. Georgia’s defense is a bit strange too. The Dawgs’ “D” is good, but not as good as recent Georgia teams. There are holes. But Albert can’t find them – Georgia 30, Florida 20.
10. Ole Miss (6-2) at Arkansas (5-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – Ole Miss has to play Georgia next week. Now, who do you think the Magnolias are thinking about – Arkansas or Georgia. And Arkansas is off next week. This contest could be made in the shade for the Razorbacks. Arkansas can score. The problem is the Hogs aren’t all that good on defense. On paper, this is all Ole Miss. The Magnolias are averaging 40 points a game and their defense is only giving up 11 points a game. Ole Miss has one of the best quarterbacks in the country in Jaxson Dart. He has passed for 2,695 yards. But he has those Dawgs on his mind – Arkansas 20, Ole Miss 19.
The outcome of three more games really has my curiosity peaked. They are Minnesota (5-3) at Illinois (6-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FS1…. Virginia Tech (5-3) at Syracuse (5-2) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, CWN…. and Wisconsin (5-3) at Iowa (5-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
UCLA (2-5) at Nebraska (5-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – After two tough games on the road – one a spanking and the other a close loss – the Huskers should feel good to be home this week. The opponent – UCLA – is beatable. And it could be Nebraska’s last win of the regular season. USC, Wisconsin and Iowa are on the horizon. This is a good opportunity for Nebraska’s offense to open up. UCLA’s defense is giving up 29 points a game. And for the Huskers’ defense to continue to play good. UCLA’s offense is only averaging 17 points a game. Coming off that game against Ohio State, Nebraska should be inspired. Herbie scares the Bears – Nebraska 30, UCLA 14.
Northwestern (3-5) at Purdue (1-6) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, BTN – Man, if there was ever a game between two woeful teams, this is it. It will be interesting, that’s for sure. It’s a game between two of the worst offenses in the country against two of the worst defenses in the country. Either there will be a lot of points scored, or there will be few points scored. Northwestern does have the better defense, while Purdue has the better offense. But that isn’t saying much. Flip a coin. The Wildcats win – Northwestern 30, Purdue 27.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
New Mexico State (2-5) at FIU (2-6) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 7 pm ET, Tuesday, CBSSN….
South Florida (3-4) at Florida Atlantic (2-5) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 7:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN2….
Stetson (2-5) at Butler (6-2) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday….
West Florida (5-2) at Erskine (1-4) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 2 pm ET, Saturday….
Grambling State (4-4) at Bethune-Cookman (1-7) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Arizona (3-5) at UCF (3-5) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FS1….
North Carolina (4-4) at Florida State (1-7) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….
Texas Southern (3-4) at Florida A&M (4-3) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Quotes of the Week
“Georgia is the best team in the country. They’re loaded. We saw what they did to Texas. They’re number one and Oregon is right behind them,” former Florida and Ohio State coach Urban Meyer.
Touchdown Tom
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