CFW Week 8 Forecast – Nebraska-Indiana will be a curious affair
Here we go again – Georgia-Texas and
Alabama-Tennessee: take your pick
From week-to-week, the excitement is non-stop.
The SEC takes center stage this week with two blockbuster games – No. 5 Georgia (5-1) at No. 1 Texas (6-0) and No. 7 Alabama (5-1) at No. 11Tennessee (5-1). Georgia-Texas features Connor Beck vs. Quinn Ewers in a Heisman Trophy competition between the two quarterbacks. Alabama-Tennessee provides a similar scenario between Jalen Milroe and Nico Iamaleava.
There is a third SEC game this week that promises to be full of intense excitement – No. 8 LSU (5-1) at Arkansas (4-2). Brian Kelly vs. Sam Pittman is an interesting matchup. Can Pittman drink Kelly’s bath water? Lane Kiffin couldn’t.
The Big Ten has an encounter that is filled with anxiety – Nebraska (5-1) at No. 16 Indiana (6-0). Indiana football is 6-0 for the first time since 1967 – 57 years. That’s a long time. Nebraska football is 5-1 for the first time since 2016 – eight years. That’s a long time for Husker fans. First-year Coach Curt Cignetti has performed miracles at Indiana. Will the miracle continue?
Another intriguing game in the Big Ten is No. 24 Michigan (4-2) at No. 22 Illinois (5-1). Three losses and the season is kaput for the Wolverines. Illinois got a big scare last week. The Banned Indians better be prepared.
The ACC has a good contest on its agenda – No. 6 Miami (6-0) at Louisville (4-2). Right now, Miami quarterback Cam Ward is one of the Top 3 Heisman prospects. Louisville could be a negative impact on Ward’s prospects.
No. 12 Notre Dame (5-1) is still in contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff. But first the Irish have to get by Georgia Tech (4-2) this week. The game is in Atlanta. Tech has played some inspired football this season. Will the Yellow Jackets be inspired on Saturday?
Of all things, the best game in the Big 12 this week is Arizona State (5-1) at Cincinnati (4-2). Neither of these two teams were supposed to be playing so well. Both teams are a surprise. Which one will surprise on Saturday?
In the Group of Five, the AAC has a game that should be interesting to follow – North Texas (5-1) at Memphis (5-1). North Texas has an exciting quarterback in Chandler Morris. Memphis hopes to take the excitement out of Morris.
The best venture in the Sun Belt Conference has James Madison (5-1) at Georgia Southern (4-2). JMU is a fun and exciting team to watch. Georgia Southern will be out to spoil JMU’s fun. They are capable.
Be prepared to sink your teeth into your favorite pizza, the best chili dogs and some good wings. The weekend promises to work up your appetite.
In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, South Dakota State (5-1) is No. 1, followed by 2. North Dakota State (6-1), 3. Montana State (7-0), 4. South Dakota (5-1), 5. Villanova (5-1) and UC Davis (6-1). Florida A&M is 18th and Dartmouth is 24th in the FCS Coaches Poll.
I erroneously reported in a recent posting that when the SEC fines a member school for fans rushing the field after a game, the money from the fine goes to the SEC coffers. My Navy buddy and Tennessee Vols fan Graham Sexton of Knoxville, Tennessee, kindly sent me a correction. The money from the fine goes to the visiting school. So, when Vanderbilt fans rushed the field after beating Alabama, the money from the $100K fine (first offense) went to Alabama. When Arkansas fans rushed the field after beating Tennessee, the money from the $250K fine (second offense) went to Tennessee. Last Saturday, when LSU fans rushed the field after beating Ole Miss, the money from the $250K fine (second offense) went to Ole Miss. So, the SEC schools just pass the money back-and-forth and among one another. Makes sense to me. By the way, a third offense fine is $500K. Thanks for keeping me straight, Graham.
Touchdown Tom
October 17, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Eight’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Georgia (5-1) at Texas (6-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Looking at this game on paper, it is hard to see how Georgia beats Texas. The Longhorns are the No. 1 offensive team in the country, averaging 43 points a game and averaging 496 total yards a game. And if that isn’t enough, Texas also is the No. 1 defensive team in the country. The Longhorns are holding opponents to six points a game, while only allowing their opponents 230 yards a game. How do you beat that? With Carson Beck. That’s the only way. The Georgia quarterback is the Dawgs biggest weapon. Beck has passed for 1,818 yards a game (ninth in the country), completing 68% of his passes. He is averaging 303 yards a game passing and has only thrown five interceptions in six games. Beck has thrown 15 touchdown passes (10th in the country). Georgia is ninth in the country in passing offense. Simply put, if Carson Beck has a good game, Georgia has a chance of beating Texas. If Beck has a bad game – forget it. But are these Texas numbers misleading? Texas has only played two good teams – Michigan and Oklahoma. Michigan and Oklahoma are two of the worst teams in the country on offense. Michigan is 119th in the country and Oklahoma is 125th. Michigan and Oklahoma are just slightly better than average on defense. Michigan is 46th and OU is 48th. Georgia has played Clemson, Kentucky and Alabama. Clemson is the 10th best team in the country on offense. Alabama is 36th. Kentucky is the third best team in the country on defense. So, this game may be closer than it appears to be at first glance. It all comes down to Carson Beck. Bevo says the heck with Beck – Texas 27, Georgia 20.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Alabama (5-1) at Tennessee (5-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Man, if there are two teams in the country who are in a funk, it is Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama went into its funk after beating Georgia. The Tide lost to Vanderbilt and barely survived South Carolina. Tennessee went into a funk after beating Oklahoma. The Vols lost to Arkansas and barely survived Florida. They may still be in a funk this week. If that’s the case, the winner will be the team with the least amount of funk. Like Texas against Georgia, Tennessee, on paper, has better numbers than Alabama. The Vols are ninth in the country on offense – 484 total yards a game. And Tennessee is second in the country on defense – allowing only 250 total yards a game. Against Vanderbilt and South Carolina, Alabama was lacking an offensive line, lacking a running back and lacking a defense. Against Arkansas and Florida, Tennessee had a defense but was lacking an offense. The Vols come out of their funk and play that funky football – Tennessee 27, Alabama 24.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Nebraska (5-1) at Indiana (6-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – Here’s two teams looking to establish themselves in Big Ten football. One, a former powerhouse, who has been wandering in the wilderness for several years. The other, never known to have a decent football program. The former powerhouse – Nebraska – is off to a good start this season. The success is a result of a good defense. A defense that has held opponents to 273 total yards a game (13th in the country) and 11 points a game (7th in the country). It’s not the result of a good offense. The Nebraska offense has wobbled. It has been inconsistent. But there is potential. Quarterback Dylan Raiola has passed for 1,345 yards, completing 67% of his throws. He has only had three interceptions. Meanwhile, Indiana is a big surprise. What first-year coach Curt Cignetti has done with the Hoosiers is nothing short of amazing. And Indiana is good on offense and defense. On offense the Hoosiers are averaging 516 total yards a game (4th in the country) and 48 points a game (2nd in the country). Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has passed for 1,752 yards, completing 74% of his passes. He has only thrown two interceptions. On defense, Indiana is holding opponents to 256 total yards a game (6th in the country) and 15 points a game (11th in the country). Remember the miracle Mets? Meet the miracle Hoosiers – Indiana 28, Nebraska 21.
4. Miami (6-0) at Louisville (4-2) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Speaking of paper, Miami has it all over Louisville on paper. Both teams have a good offense, but Miami’s is better – the best in the country. No one has stopped quarterback Cam Ward. He has passed for 2,219 yards, completing 69% of his passes. The big difference between the two teams is on defense. The Canes have the better one – considerably so. Still, Miami has had a few close calls in its last two games – a four-point controversial win over Virginia Tech and a fourth-quarter rally to beat California by one point. Miami needs to get out of that funk. Those two games give Louisville hope. But quarterback Tyler Shough needs to show up. He’s capable. Shough has passed for 1,674 yards. Hurricane Ward sends the Cardinals packing – Miami 30, Louisville 27.
5. North Texas (5-1) at Memphis (5-1) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPNU – The upstart and surprise team here is North Texas. But the Eagles have built their 5-1 record against weak competition. North Texas does have a very good offense. However, the Eagles have a very bad defense – very bad. They are scoring 41 points a game but giving up 33 points a game. The North Texas strong point is quarterback Chandler Morris. He is good. Morris has passed for 1,979 yards. Memphis was supposed to be good this year. The Tigers are a candidate to be the Group of Five’s rep in the CFP. They hit a road bump a few weeks ago, losing to Navy. The Memphis offense may not be as good as the North Texas offense. But the Memphis defense is much better than the North Texas defense. The Tigers turn the Mean Green into the Lean Green – Memphis 34, North Texas 27.
6. Notre Dame (5-1) at Georgia Tech (4-2) – (Ind. Vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – The defense has been winning games for Notre Dame. The Irish offense is so-so. The defense is superb. Surprisingly, Notre Dame’s only setback is a two-point loss to Northern Illinois. The defense played well in that game. The offense was atrocious. Georgia Tech has a better than average offense and defense. As quarterback Haynes King goes so go the Yellow Jackets offense. King has passed for 1,568 yards, completing 71% of his lobs. He has only thrown one interception. The Irish have a CFP spot in their eyes – Notre Dame 30, Georgia Tech 23.
7. LSU (5-1) at Arkansas (4-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Look for a possible let down from LSU. That was a big win over Ole Miss last week. It may have taken a lot out of the Tigers. We’ll see what they are made of. Meanwhile, Arkansas is on a high after its win two weeks ago over Tennessee. And the Hogs have had a week of rest to prepare for LSU. Plus the game is being played in Fayetteville. Quarterback Taylen Green has been improving each week. LSU quarterback Garrett Nussmeier is no slouch. He’s a winner. Just ask Lane Kiffin. The Tigers can’t slop the Pigs – Arkansas 24, LSU 23.
8. Michigan (4-2) at Illinois (5-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Illinois almost stubbed its toe last week. The Banned Indians beat Purdue in overtime and had to kick a game ending field goal to put the game into overtime. They can’t afford to play like that this week. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been playing better and better each week. Poor Michigan simply has no offense – one of the worst in the country. The Wolverines' saving grace is their defense. It’s not the best, but it is decent. Home field gives the Banned Indians an advantage – Illinois 21, Michigan 20.
9. Arizona State (5-1) at Cincinnati (4-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN+ – Both teams are a bit of a surprise. Both were picked to finish as the bottom of the Big 12. However, both are off to a good start. Will it last? It will for one of them. Arizona State’s one setback is an eight-point loss to Texas Tech. And Texas Tech is 5-1. The strength of the Sun Devils is running back Cam Skattebo. He has 773 yards rushing – 5th best in the country. Cincinnati also lost to Texas Tech – by only three points. The Bearcats also lost by one point to Pitt. Pitt is undefeated. The best part of the Bearcats is quarterback Brendan Sorsby. He has passed for 1,722 yards, completing 66% of his throws. He’s only thrown three interceptions. Make it three losses for the Bearcats – Arizona State 30, Cincinnati 26.
10. James Madison (5-1) at Georgia Southern (4-2) – (Sun Belt vs. Sun Belt) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+ – The good news for Georgia Southern: the Eagles are scoring 30 points a game. The bad news: they are giving up 31 points a game. The Eagles have been riding the success of quarterback J.S. French. French has passed for 1,316 yards, while only throwing two interceptions. This could be a high-scoring affair because JMU averages 39 points a game. The Dukes’ defense is so-so. On offense, JMU relies on quarterback Alonza Barnett. Barnett has passed for 1,472 yards, with only one interception. However, he has only completed 58% of his passes. Georgia Southern is undefeated in Sun Belt play, while JMU has one loss in the conference. The Eagles suffer their first conference loss – James Madison 27, Georgia Southern 19.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
Kansas State (5-1) at West Virginia (3-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – One thing about West Virginia: you never know what to expect from the Mountaineers when they take the field. One week, they play well. The next week, they play badly. There is no consistency to the Eers. They are a very inconsistent football team. The WVU offense is average. The defense is bad. Quarterback Garrett Greene is unreliable. The running backs are not dependable. To WVU’s credit, all three teams the Mountaineers have lost to are undefeated – Penn State, Pitt and Iowa State. Kansas State, on the other hand, is pretty consistent – consistently good. In rushing offense, the Wildcats are the eighth-best team in the country – averaging 241 yards a game on the ground. On defense, they are the second-best team in the country against the rush – holding opponents to 72 yards a game on the ground. K-State’s leading rusher is D.J. Giddens. He has rushed for 786 yards. K-State’s defense is weak against the pass – giving up 268 yards a game. Wildcats purr – Kansas State 27, West Virginia 20.
Kentucky (3-3) at Florida (3-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – This is a game that Florida used to win all the time. The Gators never lost to Kentucky. However, in recent years that hasn’t been the case. Kentucky has found a way to beat Florida. If the Wildcats beat Florida this year, it will be the Kentucky defense that beats the Gators. Kentucky has no offense. It is one of the worst in the country. But the Wildcats’ defense is very, very good – third in the nation in total yards allowed per game at 252. Florida quarterback Graham Mertz is out for the season with a torn ACL. That means quarterback D.J. Lagway will be playing full time. Florida’s offense is better than Kentucky’s. But the Gators defense is worse than Kentucky’s. However, Florida has played good defense in its last two games against UCF and Tennessee. The Gators need to beat Kentucky because after the Wildcats, Florida plays Georgia, Texas, LSU and Ole Miss. Albert savors a win – Florida 24, Kentucky 21.
Florida State (1-5) at Duke (5-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7 pm ET, Friday, ESPN2 – Under first-year coach Manny Diaz, the Dookies began the season 5-0. Then they lost their last outing to Georgia Tech. The Dookies have a pretty good passing game and a lousy running game. Quarterback Maalik Murphy has passed for 1,430 yards. Duke does have a decent defense. Florida State has one of the worst offenses in the country, combined with a bad defense. The offense is averaging 15 points a game. The defense is giving up 25 points a game. Both teams had the previous week off. The Noles have lost five games and still have to play Miami and Notre Dame. The Dookies do the chopping – Duke 21, Florida State 17.
Oregon (6-0) at Purdue (1-5) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – After its huge win over Ohio State, one would suspect that Oregon will have a big letdown this week. It’s hard to get excited about a game against Purdue. The Boilers, on the other hand, should be fired up. They found a new quarterback last week – Ryan Browne – and as a result found an offense. The Boilers darn near beat Illinois. Unfortunately for Purdue, the defense is still bad – one of the worst in the country. The Boilers are giving up 39 points a game. Oregon, of course, likes to score points – 35 a game. But again, the Ducks may have lost some feathers after that big win over the Buckeyes. The Duck still has some quack left – Oregon 33, Purdue 20.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
FIU (2-4) at UTEP (0-6) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 9 pm ET, Wednesday, CBSSN….
Stetson (2-3) at Davidson (4-2) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
West Florida (3-2) at Chowan (2-3) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 1 pm ET, Saturday….
Bethune-Cookman (0-6) at Mississippi Valley State (0-6) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
UAB (1-6) at South Florida (2-4) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Florida Atlantic (2-4) at Jackson State (2-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPNU….
UCF (3-3) at Iowa State (6-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7:340 pm ET, Saturday, FS1….
Quotes of the Week
“They don’t look disciplined. They don’t look like they have anybody in charge. Malachi Moore continues to act like a fool,” ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum, on the Alabama football team.
“That was a big hit to his reputation. It’s as simple as that,” ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum, on Lane Kiffin’s loss to LSU.
“Texas is the most complete team, and the scary thing is, they’re just getting started,” ESPN college football analyst Greg McElroy, on the Longhorns.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(The next CFW – Week 8 Results – will be posted Monday morning, October 21.)
No comments:
Post a Comment