CFW Week 5 Forecast – The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry
Rapid City, a long way
from college football
Greetings college football fans from the Alex Johnson Hotel in Rapid City, South Dakota. For the next three days, Swamp Mama and I will be touring, socializing and partying with my U.S. Navy buddies and their wives. We guys were stationed, worked and partied together in Edzell, Scotland, in 1972-1973. Since 2015, we have been rendezvousing on an annual basis somewhere around the country. This year, we are in the Badlands of South Dakota.
My surveillance of college football this weekend is going to be on my cell phone. Rapid City isn’t exactly the hot spot of college football. That’s not a knock on Rapid City. It’s a great place. But it is remote from football. Plus, I will be busy with activities and such with my Navy brethren. Thank God for cell phones.
Last night, we were all gathered in a local pub for dinner. And who should be on the big screen TV but the Florida Gators volleyball team. The No. 4 Gators were in a match with Texas A&M. In the fifth game of the five-set match, Texas A&M beat Florida on a controversial call.
This is not a so-called monumental weekend in college football. However, some of the matchups could provide some pretty exciting football – some real donnybrook games, some real barnburner games. Just think about the gut wrencher possibilities of Notre Dame-Duke, Utah-Oregon State, Florida-Kentucky, Louisville-NC State, LSU-Ole Miss, Clemson-Syracuse, Texas A&M-Arkansas and South Carolina-Tennessee.
It won’t be a barnburner game, but “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry” is being played this weekend – Georgia-Auburn. Georgia leads the series 62-56-8. The rivalry began in 1892. Now, it is not to be confused with “The South’s Oldest Rivalry,” which is North Carolina-Virginia. They too began playing in 1892. North Carolina and Virginia have met 128 times where Auburn-Georgia have only met 126 times.
The Top 5 teams in this week’s AP Poll are: 1. Georgia (4-0), 2. Michigan (4-0), 3. Texas (4-0), 4. Ohio State (4-0), and 5. Florida State (4-0). Georgia got 55 of the 63 first-place votes. Michigan got 1, Texas got 2, Ohio State got 1, Florida State got 3 and Washington (4-0) got 1. Duke (4-0) is 17th and Florida (3-1) is 22nd in the AP Poll.
The Top 5 teams in this week’s Coaches Poll are: 1. Georgia (4-0), 2. Michigan (4-0), 3. Ohio State (4-0), 4. Florida State (4-0), and 5. Texas (4-0). Georgia got 61 of the 64 first-place votes. Ohio State got 2 and Washington (4-0) got 1. Duke (4-0) is 16th and Florida (3-1) is 23rd in the Coaches Poll.
This week, Georgia visits Auburn, and Michigan is at Nebraska. Texas hosts Kansas, while Ohio State and Florida State are off.
In the FCS Coaches Poll, the Top 5 teams are: 1. South Dakota State (3-0), 2. North Dakota State (3-0), 3. Montana State (3-1), 4. William & Mary (4-0), and Holy Cross (3-1). South Dakota State got all 26 of the first-place votes. Harvard (2-0) is 24th in the Poll.
Michigan State made it official yesterday. The Spartans fired Mel Tucker. Tucker was fired for cause. He was fired for bringing disrespect, contempt and ridicule upon the program. Tucker had previously been suspended for sexual misconduct. By firing him for cause, Michigan State will not have to pay Tucker the remaining $79 million in his contract. Of course, Tucker will contest this.
David McCallum, 90, died on September 25. Famous for his role in “The Man from U.N.C.L.E.” TV series of the 1960s. Also known for his medical examiner role in “NCIS.” In the movies, he was in “The Great Escape” (1963). A native of Glasgow, Scotland, David Keith McCallum was 90.
“Mr. Oriole” Brooks Robinson died on September 26. Robison was an all-star third baseman who played his entire MLB career with the Baltimore Orioles – 1955-1977. He is generally considered to be the greatest defensive third baseman in major league baseball history. A native of Little Rock, Arkansas, Brooks Calbert Robinson, was 86.
There were some tough picks this week. On two of the picks, I went with my head on one and my heart on the other. You’ll know which ones I’m talking about.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
September 28, 2023
Note: CFW Week 5 Results will be posted Monday morning, October 2.
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
This week’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Kansas (4-0) at Texas (4-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – The last time Kansas and Texas met in Austin – 2021 – the Jayhawks beat the Longhorns in overtime. That won’t happen this time. Not even in overtime. This is a different Texas team. It’s a different Kansas team too, but not that different. Texas is good on offense, but the Horns are better on defense. At least, so far. Quinn Ewers has passed for 1,033 yards in four games. And one of the wins was over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. The Jayhawks will strike Texas with quarterback Jalon Daniels and running back Devin Neal. But that won’t be enough. Bevo enjoys some roast Jayhawk – Texas 30, Kansas 20.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Notre Dame (4-1) at Duke (4-0) – (Ind. vs. ACC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Don’t be surprised if Duke wins. I don’t think it will happen, but Mike Elko has the Dookies playing excellent defense. And defense can win games. The Irish play good defense too. Not sure how they will react following the last second loss to Ohio State. They better get that out of their system. Sam Hartman has passed for 1,236 yards in five games. The Leprechaun did his homework – Notre Dame 23, Duke 21.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Utah (4-0) at Oregon State (3-1) – (Pac-12 vs. Pac-12) – 9 pm ET, Friday, FS1 – The Beavers lost a close one on the road to Washington State – 3 points. Utah won a close one at home against UCLA – 7 points. Time for a reversal. Oregon State wins a close one at home over Utah. It’s unknown if Utah quarterback Cam Rising will play against Oregon State. He has been nursing an injury. The Beavers need for quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei and running back Damien Martinez to step up. They do – Oregon State 20, Utah 18.
4. Georgia (4-0) at Auburn (3-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – This hasn’t been much of a game in recent years. I don’t know if it will be this year or not. It’s called “The Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry” – not to be confused with “The South’s Oldest Rivalry” – North Carolina-Virginia. Georgia has won the last six games and 15 of the last 18 games. The Dawgs lead the series – 63-56-8. Auburn is about as bad on defense as it is on offense. The Tigers can’t pass – 113th in the country. Meanwhile, Georgia is averaging 41.5 points a game on offense, while holding opponents to 11.2 points a game on defense. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has passed for 1,184 yards in four games. Aubie loses some fur – Georgia 30, Auburn 14.
5. Florida (3-1) at Kentucky (4-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – These games have been pretty good in recent years. Kentucky finally broke the Florida hex. The Gators used to be heavily favored. Recently, it has been a tossup. Florida is playing good defense. The Gators problem is on offense. They don’t have one. Kentucky is so-so on offense and defense. Better on defense. Kentucky is 4-0, but the Wildcats haven’t played anyone. Florida has played games against Utah and Tennessee. Don’t bet against Albert – Florida 27, Kentucky 21.
6. Louisville (4-0) at NC State (3-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – This has the making of a good game. If NC State stays turnover free, the Wolfpack can beat Louisville. But they need to play a near perfect game. Problem is, NC State isn’t very good on offense or defense. Louisville, on the other hand, has a good offense – not so good defense. Cardinals quarterback Jack Plummer has passed for 1,120 yards in four games. The Wolf becomes big and bad – NC State 28, Louisville 27.
7. USC (4-0) at Colorado (3-1) – (Pac-12 vs. Pac-12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – At least Colorado has USC at home. That should be good for a couple of points – not many but a few. The Trojans don’t exactly have the best defense. Shedeur Sanders should be able to pick them apart. Problem is, on the other side Caleb Williams should pick the Buffaloes apart with his passing. This one could get high scoring. Arizona State put 28 points on the board against USC. Another wild one in Boulder. The Trojans are wilder – USC 34, Colorado 20.
8. LSU (3-1) at Ole Miss (3-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Jaxson Dart against Jayden Daniels. Ole Miss ran out of steam last week against Alabama. LSU fought to the end against Arkansas. Lane Kiffin is a good coach, but he often gets criticized for not being focused. Ole Miss lost its focus against Alabama. LSU kept their focus against Arkansas. Both teams have a good offense and a weak defense. LSU’s Daniels has passed for 1,297 yards in four games. Little Kiffy pulls a magnolia out of the hat – Ole Miss 31, LSU 27.
9. West Virginia (3-1) at TCU (3-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big12) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Surprise, surprise, WVU’s defense is actually better than its offense. And the Mountaineers have won three in a row. But don’t count on four in a row. WVU’s luck is about to run out. However, it won’t come easy for TCU. The Frogs will be in a battle. TCU has a pretty good offense and a reasonable defense. On offense, quarterback Chandler Morris has passed for 1,117 yards in four games. The Frogs go hoppin’ in Fort Worth – TCU 27, West Virginia 20.
10. Clemson (2-2) at Syracuse (4-0) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – This is really a tough pick. You just know the Orange will be fired up for Clemson. They have given the Tigers some good games in recent years but have always come up short. The Cuse have a good offense and defense. Quarterback Garrett Shrader is their leading rusher and passer. He does it all. If he is on top of his game, Clemson is in trouble. The Tigers are in trouble – Syracuse 28, Clemson 26.
Six other interesting and intriguing games to keep an eye on this weekend are Texas A&M (3-1) vs. Arkansas (2-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, SECN….. South Alabama (2-2) at James Madison (4-0) – (Sun Belt vs. Sun Belt) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPNU….. and Coastal Carolina (2-2) at Georgia Southern (3-1) – (Sun Belt vs. Sun Belt) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, NFLN.
Also, Troy (2-2) at Georgia State (4-0) – (Sun Belt vs, Sun Belt) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….. South Carolina (2-2) at Tennessee (3-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, SECN….. and Washington (4-0) at Arizona (3-1) – (Pac-12 vs. Pac-12) – 10:00 pm ET, Saturday, P12N.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
Michigan (4-0) at Nebraska (2-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – The problem for Nebraska is that Michigan has a great defense. And the Huskers have no offense. The best part of Nebraska’s offense is the running game. The best part if their defense is rushing yards allowed per game – 46.2 yards. The Huskers have found a star in Heinrich Haarberg. He replaced Jeff Sims. Haarberg is getting better, but not better enough to beat the Wolverines. Harbaugh loves corn – Michigan 27, Nebraska 12.
Illinois (2-2) at Purdue (1-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, Peacock – Both teams are struggling, especially Purdue. It looks like the Boilers will struggle some more. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer is making strides. But the Banned Indians’ defense is tragic. And Illinois was so good on defense last year. Purdue quarterback Hudson Card has been up and down. The Boilers defense is pretty tragic too. This game may be a tragedy in four acts – Illinois 21, Purdue 20.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Stetson (2-2) at Marist (1-2) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Baylor (1-3) at UCF (3-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FS1….
South Florida (2-2) at Navy (1-2) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBSSN….
Florida A&M (3-1) at Mississippi Valley State (0-3) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday….
West Florida (3-1) at North Greenville (2-2) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 7 pm ET, Saturday….
Quotes of the Week
“If anybody can’t see what he has done for college football and how he’s bringing excitement to college football, you’re crazy,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning, on Colorado coach Deion Sanders.
Touchdown Tom
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