CFW Week 3 Forecast – 106th Edition of the Backyard Brawl
Florida hopes to extend home winning
streak over Tennessee to 10-straight
It’s the third week of the college football season and that means it’s about time for Florida and Tennessee to play. The Gators and the Volunteers have met 52 times on the football field. Florida leads the series 31-21. The two teams first played in 1916. However, they did not become annual rivals until 1990, and have played every year since. Prior to 1990, Tennessee led the series 13-6. Since 1990, Florida leads the series 25-8.
For 17-straight years – 1990-2006 – the Florida-Tennessee contest was the “Game of the Year” in the SEC. In 11 of the meetings between 1990 and 2006, the Gators and the Vols both entered the game ranked in the Top 5 or Top 10. They were both ranked in the Top 15 or Top 20 in the other 6 meetings. In those years, the Gators were 11-6 against the Vols. During that time (1990 to 2006) Tennessee replaced Georgia as Florida’s biggest rival. After all, the Gators were 15-2 against Georgia during those 17 years.
Interestingly, from 1994 to 1997, Tennessee quarterback Peyton Manning was 0-4 against Florida. Ironically, Peyton’s brother Eli, quarterbacking Ole Miss, never lost to Florida, beating the Gators in 2002 and 2003.
So the Gators and the Vols are set to meet again. Tennessee has not won in Gainesville since 2003. Florida has won 9-straight games over the Vols in The Swamp. Will it become 10 straight?
There’s nothing like a good ole backyard brawl. That’s what we have Saturday night in Morgantown. Pitt and West Virginia get together for the 106th edition of the Backyard Brawl. Pitt leads the series 60-42-3. However, West Virginia has won 16 of the last 24 games.
Week 3 has some interesting inter-conference games, matching undefeated teams – Washington at Michigan State, Kansas State at Missouri, Minnesota at North Carolina and BYU and Arkansas.
Conference action gets going this week with LSU at Mississippi State in the SEC, and Penn State at Illinois in the Big Ten.
After losing to Texas, Alabama gets a breather. The Tide will be in Tampa, playing South Florida. Nebraska should get its first win this week. The Huskers host Northern Illinois. Meanwhile, Duke should improve to 3-0. The Blue Devils entertain Northwestern.
Undefeated James Madison has a tricky Sun Belt Conference game. JMU is on the road in Alabama, playing Troy.
UCF will be without quarterback John Rhys Plumlee this week. Plumlee is sidelined with an undisclosed injury. The undefeated Knights host Villanova in Orlando.
Coach Prime and his Buffaloes host Colorado State in Boulder. Both ESPN and FOX will have their pregame shows – “College GameDay” and “Big Noon Kickoff” – in Boulder.
And the founding father of college football – the Ivy League – gets started this week. Brown visits Bryant, Columbia travels to Lafayette, Cornell is at Lehigh and Dartmouth is on the road at New Hampshire. Harvard entertains St. Thomas (MN), Penn visits Colgate, Princeton travels to San Diego and Yale hosts Holy Cross. Boola boola! Boola boola!
The Top 5 teams in this week’s AP Poll are 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Texas and 5. USC. Georgia got 55 of the 62 first-place votes. Michigan got 2started, Florida State got 3 and Texas got 2. Colorado is 18th and Duke is 21st in the AP Poll.
The Top 5 teams in this week’s Coaches Poll are 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Florida State, 4. Ohio State and 5. USC. Georgia got 64 of the 65 first-place votes. Michigan got 1. Duke is 20th and Colorado is 21st in the Coaches Poll.
Interesting, the Coaches aren’t as big on Texas as the Press is. Also, the Coaches aren’t as big on Colorado as the Press is.
Georgia hosts South Carolina this week, while Michigan entertains Bowling Green. Florida State visits Boston College, and Texas is home against Wyoming. Ohio State hosts Western Kentucky, and USC has the week off.
In the FCS Coaches Poll, the Top 5 teams are 1. South Dakota State, 2. North Dakota State, 3. Montana State, 4. William & Mary, and 5. Holy Cross. South Dakota State received all 25 of the first-place votes.
The two biggest stories in college football right now are Deion Sanders and the demise of the Pac-12 Conference.
On two of my predictions this week, I went with my heart instead of my head. I think you’ll recognize which two I’m talking about.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
September 14, 2023
Note: CFW Week 3 Results will be posted Monday morning, September 18.
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Three’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Washington (2-0) at Michigan State (2-0) – (Pac-12 vs. Big Ten) – 5 pm ET, Saturday, Peacock – Michigan State coach Mel Tucker won’t be on the sideline. He won’t be at the game. Tucker has been suspended, pending an investigation into alleged sexual harassment. What effect that may or may not have on the Michigan State football team is unknown. It may fire them up. It may deflate them. Regardless, it’s doubtful that the Spartans will win. The best part of Michigan State so far this season has been its defense. But the competition has been weak. Granted, quarterback Noah Kim has looked pretty good on offense. Washington has been very strong on offense – particularly passing. Huskies are the best passing team in the country thanks to quarterback Michael Penix. But their competition has been weak too. This will be Michigan State’s defense against Washington’s offense. Offense wins – Washington 26, Michigan State 14.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Kansas State (2-0) at Missouri (2-0) – (SEC vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, SECN – Both teams are undefeated, but only Kansas State is ranked. Missouri isn’t. K-State is the best team in the country in rush defense. The rest of the defense is pretty good too. The offense isn’t bad. Missouri is pretty good on defense and terrible on offense. And the competition has been weak. Last week, the Tigers barely escaped Middle Tennessee, 23-19. But these could be sleeping Tigers waiting for the alarm to go off. The alarm fails and the Wildcat prevails – Kansas State 33, Missouri 19.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Minnesota (2-0) at North Carolina (2-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Minnesota has played good defense, but its offense has been anemic. The offense has produced 38 points in two games. The passing game has been non-existent. Gophers coach P.J. Fleck has work to do on offense. North Carolina has been playing good offense. The Tar Heels are a little weak on defense. App State took them to overtime last week – two overtimes. But North Carolina does have good balance between its passing and rushing. Tar Heels send the Gophers home in their PJs – North Carolina 24, Minnesota 17.
4. BYU (2-0) at Arkansas (2-0) – (Big 12 vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Last year, BYU lost this game in Provo, 52-35. The Cougars won’t lose that bad this year, but they will lose. Against weak competition so far BYU has a strong defense and a poor offense. Former USC and Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis doesn’t seem to be helping that much – not so far at least. Arkansas will be without its star running back Raheim Sanders. He has a knee injury. The Razorbacks have been sharp on defense and sluggish on offense. They played poorly against Kent State last week. Pork rules – Arkansas 26, BYU 24.
5. Wyoming (2-0) at Texas (2-0) – (MWC vs. Big 12) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, LHN – The Cowboys began the season with an upset win over another Texas team. Wyoming knocked off Texas Tech in double overtime. The Cowboys are average in both offense and defense – not good, but not bad. They would love to upset another Texas team. It won’t happen. But they could catch the Longhorns in a post-Alabama high. So, it could be tight for a while. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers has passed for 609 yards in two games. Bevo horns a Cowboy – Texas 33, Wyoming 17.
6. Tennessee (2-) at Florida (1-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – In two games this season, Tennessee has gotten off to a slow start and come on strong down the stretch. The Vols can’t afford a slow start against Florida. Tennessee’s defense is not spectacular. The Vols offense is strong in the running game. Florida will definitely be Tennessee’s first test. But the Gators may not be a big test. Florida looked awful in its opener at Utah. The Gators were better last week, but the competition was weaker. Florida has played good defense. Better than its offense. Albert turns Davy into a Swamp thing – Florida 20, Tennessee 17.
7. LSU (1-1) at Mississippi State (2-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – LSU is one of the top teams in the country on offense. One of the worst teams on defense. Quarterback Jaden Daniels has passed for 616 yards in two games. Basically, LSU is still an unknown. The Tigers were terrible against Florida State and beat a cupcake last week. You could say that Miss State is an unknown too. After beating a cupcake, the Bulldogs downed Arizona last week in overtime. Miss State’s defense hasn’t looked that good. Nothing stark about the Tigers – LSU 30, Mississippi State 20.
8. South Carolina (1-1) at Georgia (2-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – The best part of South Carolina so far has been quarterback Spencer Rattler. Rattler has passed for 698 yards in two games. The Gamecocks defense has not looked good – not good at all. That could be a problem against Georgia – a big problem. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has had a good start – 577 yards passing in two games. The Dawgs need to crank up their running game. As always, the Georgia defense is one of the best in the country. The Dawgs have given up 10 points in two games. The Gamecocks might score more than 10 points, but not enough to win. Chicken divan for the Dawg – Georgia 32, South Carolina 16.
9. Penn State (2-0) at Illinois (1-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – When I see these two teams playing, I can’t help but think of that 9-overtime game in 2021. You just don’t forget something like that. Illinois won 20-18. That game was in University Park. After two games this season, the Nittany Lions have been playing good offense and defense. Granted, last week’s opponent was Delaware. Still, the Nitts have looked good. And quarterback Drew Allar has looked good too. The Illinois defense has gone from one of the best in the country last year to one of the worst in the country this year. The Banned Indians definitely have a problem on defense. And the offense isn’t much better. The Nitts make the Banned Indians look ill – Penn State 31, Illinois 14.
10. Pitt (1-1) at West Virginia (1-1) – (ACC vs. Big 12) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Katy bar the door when these two teams get together. You never know what will happen. But often you can expect the unexpected. Regardless, it’s generally a wild and fun time. Pitt’s offense has been struggling – yet to find a star. The Panthers defense has been decent. West Virginia hasn’t been any better – on offense or defense. The Mounties pass defense is suspect. For both teams, the outcome of this game could be the turning point for the rest of the season. Fasten your seat belts, it could get bumpy. Sweet Caroline – West Virginia 23, Pitt 21.
Five other interesting and intriguing games to keep an eye on this weekend are: South Alabama (1-1) at Oklahoma State (2-0) – (Sun Belt vs. Big 12) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….. San Jose State (1-2) at Toledo (1-1) – (MWC vs. MAC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….. James Madison (2-0) at Troy (1-1) – (Sun Belt vs. Sun Belt) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, NFLN….. San Diego State (2-1) at Oregon State (2-0) – (MWC vs. Pac-12) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, FS1….. and TCU (1-1) at Houston (1-1) – (Big 12 vs, Big 12) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, FOX.
YE OLDE STOMOPING GROUNDS:
Northern Illinois (1-1) at Nebraska (0-2) – (MAC vs. Big Ten) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – After a tough loss to Minnesota and a beat down from Colorado, it’s about to get better for the Huskers. Northern Illinois will be a breather. There’s the good and bad of quarterback Jeff Sims. He’s the leading rusher on the team at 158 yards. But he has only passed for 220 yards. He’s also responsible for a number of turnovers. Nebraska’s defense is a lot better than its offense – hands down. Northern Illinois began the season knocking off Boston College. Then the Huskies turned around and lost to Southern Illinois. The Huskies are fair on defense – really bad on offense. They will be really bad against Nebraska. Herbie gets a win – Nebraska 28, Northern Illinois 11.
Northwestern (1-1) at Duke (2-0) – (Big Ten vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – This is going to be a long season for Northwestern. It began on a sour note with the locker room harassment problems. It hasn’t gotten much better. The Northwestern offense is one of the worst offenses in the country – if not the worst. The defense is better, but not great. On the other hand, Duke is off to a great start. The Dookies knocked off Clemson in their opener. The Duke defense is strong. The offense isn’t bad either. Quarterback Riley Leonard is off to a good start – on the football field. He’s off to a slow start with his homework. Riley gets his homework done – Duke 35, Northwestern 15.
Syracuse (2-0) at Purdue (1-1) – (ACC vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – Syracuse is off to a great start. The Orange could be 3-0 after Saturday. Syracuse’s offense and defense are among the best in the country. Granted, the competition hasn’t been that tough. Quarterback Garrett Schrader has passed for 543 yards. Purdue has been struggling. Struggling on both offense and defense. The Boilers lost a close one to Fresno State and won a close one against Virginia Tech. Quarterback Hunter Card has passed for 502 yards. Whoever wins, it will be another close game for the Boilers. The Orange juice the Boilers – Syracuse 27, Purdue 23.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Bethune-Cookman (1-1) at Miami (2-0) – (SWAC vs. ACC) – 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, ACCN….
Florida State (2-0) at Boston College (1-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC….
Stetson (2-0) at Montana State (1-1) – (Pioneer vs. Big Sky) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Alabama (1-1) at South Florida (1-1) – (SEC vs. AAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC….
FIU (2-1) at Connecticut (0-2) – (C-USA vs. Ind.) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBSSN….
West Florida (2-0) at Florida A&M (1-1) – (Gulf South vs. SWAC) – 6 pm ET, Saturday….
Villanova (2-0) at UCF (2-0) – (Colonial vs. Big 12) – 6:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Florida Atlantic (1-1) at Clemson (1-1) – (AAC vs. ACC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
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