Tuesday, January 20, 2026

CFW Week 22 Results - Is Darian Mensah Miami's next quarterback?

 CFW Week 22 Results – Is Darian Mensah Miami’s next quarterback?

There was something

in the air last night,

the stars were bright, Fernando

 

If the Heisman Trophy hadn’t already been won, Fernando Mendoza would have won it on his 12-yard touchdown run that came with 9:18 to go in the fourth quarter. It was a Mendoza moment. It was a Heisman Trophy winning moment. Even more exciting, the 12-yard run came on a fourth down. Indiana coach Curt Cignetti chose to go for the touchdown instead of kicking a field goal. That touchdown put Indiana up 24-14. As it turns out, 24 points was enough for Indiana to win the game. The Hoosiers won the CFP National Championship, beating Miami, 27-21.

 

Give Miami credit. The Canes played a good game. They didn’t lose to Indiana 38-3, like Alabama. Miami didn’t lose to Indiana 56-22, like Oregon. The Canes gave Indiana all the Hoosiers could handle. Down 24-14, following Mendoza’s touchdown run, Miami, just three minutes later, came back and scored a touchdown on a 22-yard pass from Carson Beck to Malachi Toney. With six minutes and 37 seconds left to play, Miami trailed Indiana by 3 points – 24-21.

 

Indiana’s fate was up to Mendoza again. With Mendoza’s passing and Kaelon Black’s running, the Hoosiers moved the ball down the field, eating time off the clock. But much to the result of a false start penalty on Indiana, the Hoosiers drive stalled on the Miami 18. Indiana kicked a 35-yard field goal. That put the Hoosiers up 27-21.

 

But with 1:42 still on the clock and the always present threat of Carson Beck to Malachi Toney, Miami still had a chance – a good chance. After a roughing the passer penalty on Indiana and a couple of Beck’s completions, Miami was on the move. However, the Beck to Toney magic never materialized. With 40-plus seconds on the clock, Indiana defensive back Jamari Sharpe, a Miami native, intercepted a Carson Beck pass. The fat lady sang. Game over.

 

Indiana took the initial kickoff in the game. But the Hoosiers went 3-and-out. The first half was slow compared to the second half. On three of Miami’s first four possessions, the Canes were 3-and-out. Indiana didn’t fare much better. The Hoosiers did manage a 34-yard field goal with 2:42 to go in the first quarter. At the 6:13 mark in the second quarter, Indiana scored a touchdown. The Hoosiers led Miami, 10-0. Miami missed a field goal shortly before the half. Indiana held on to its 10-point lead at halftime.

 

Early in the second half it looked like the momentum had changed. Just four minutes into the third quarter, Miami scored a touchdown and trailed the Hoosiers, 10-7. Indiana failed to move the ball on successive possessions. Then the Hoosiers got a break. With 5:054 remaining in the third quarter, Indiana blocked a Miami punt and recovered the ball in the end zone. Indiana was up 17-7.

 

Miami wouldn’t give up. Just three seconds into the fourth quarter, Miami scored a touchdown on a 3-yard run by Mark Fletcher. Indiana’s lead was cut to three points – 17-14. A little more than five minutes later, Fernando Mendoza scored on his 12-yard Mendoza moment run. The Hoosiers were up 24-14. And so the game played out with Miami making a game of it, but ultimately falling to Indiana, 27-21.

 

Again, give Miami credit. The Canes were competitive. It was an exciting national championship game. But Indiana was the better team and Indiana deserved to win.

 

The Hoosiers deserved to win because on Miami’s home field, Indiana fans made up at least 60 percent, if not more, of the attendance. A crowd of 67,227 attended the game and more than 40,000 of the attendees were Indiana fans. What an embarrassment to Miami. On their own home field, the Canes only had, at best, 40 percent of the attendance. If you don’t support your team, you don’t deserve to win.

 

Indiana ended its season at 16-0. The Hoosiers are the only college team since the 19th century to win that many games. The 2023 Michigan Wolverines, the 2022 Georgia Bulldogs, the 2019 LSU Tigers and the 2018 Clemson Tigers were 15-0. The only other college team to go 16-0 was the 1894 Yale Bulldogs. That was before there was structure and organization to the scheduling of games. In the 1880’s and 1890’s college teams used to play club teams and high school teams in addition to each other. Often they would play two games a week.

 

So, Indiana, the No. 1 seed defeated Miami, the No. 10 seed. Congratulations to Indiana. The Hoosiers had a hell of a season.

 

This was the third-straight season a team from the Big Ten Conference has won the national championship – Michigan in 2023 and Ohio State in 2024. Paul Finebaum must be eating crow and crying in his milk.

 

The 15-day transfer portal window closed at midnight last Friday. According to reports, around 7,000 FBS and FCS players entered the portal. Some 200 FBS quarterbacks entered the portal. Eighty of them were repeat transfers. Some quarterbacks were transferring to their third school. Although the window for entering the portal came to a close, players already in the portal can still sign with a new school. January’s transfer portal window was the busiest since the portal began in 2018. The top quarterbacks in the portal were being offered upwards of $3 million. Many offensive tackles and defensive lineman were being offered $1 million.

 

After initially saying he was going to remain at Duke, quarterback Darian Mensah made a last-minute decision to enter the transfer portal on the final day the portal was open. Sources say Mensah is going to transfer to Miami for an NIL payment of $10 million. He has been making $4 million at Duke.

 

The Big Ten and the SEC remain in disagreement over the expansion of the College Football Playoff. The SEC (along with the other eight conferences) wants to expand to 16 teams – nothing more. The Big Ten wants to expand to 24 teams. The two conferences have until the end of the day Friday (January 23) to come to an agreement. Otherwise, the CFP will remain at 12 games next season.

 

Touchdown Tom

January 20, 2026

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

Review of the College Football Playoff Championship Game

 

Hurricane Fernando overpowers Hurricane Miami – Indiana 27, Miami 21 (Touchdown Tom said: Indiana 28, Miami 21). It was a low-scoring first half game. Only 10 of the game’s 48 points were scored in the first half. The second half was busier, especially the fourth quarter where 24 points (three touchdowns and a field goal) were scored. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza was 16-27-0, passing for 186 yards. Mendoza ran for a 12-yard touchdown. Indiana running back Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby combined for 139 yards rushing. Receiver Omar Cooper had 5 catches for 71 yards. Receiver Charlie Becker had 4 catches for 65 yards. Miami quarterback Carson Beck was 19-32-1, passing for 232 yards and one touchdown. Miami running back Mark Fletcher ran for 112 yards and 2 touchdowns. Receiver Malachi Toney had 10 catches for 122 yards. The teams were relatively even in the stats. However, Indiana had a 13-minute edge in time of possession. Attendance in Miami Gardens: 67,227

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“I’m not an NFL guy,” Indiana coach Curt Cirgnetti, on speculation he will take a coaching job in the NFL.

 

“If you want to be good in anything in life, you got to have a goal. And then you got to be committed to it and have the discipline day in and day out to work toward your goal. The work ethic, the mental toughness to persevere – that all goes into discipline,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

The next and final CFW of the season – CFW Farewell – will be posted Monday morning, January 26.

 

Thursday, January 15, 2026

CFW Week 22 Forecast - Will we have a 16-team playoff next year?

 CFW Week 22 Forecast – Will we have a 16-team playoff next year?

Home field for Miami,

homecoming for Mendoza

 

The Miami Hurricanes couldn’t have it any better on Monday night. They will be playing for the national championship on their home field. What more could you ask for?

 

But will it feel like a home game for Miami? Fernando Mendoza, the Indiana quarterback, grew up in Miami. He has a big following in Miami. It will be a homecoming for Mendoza.

 

During the season, Hard Rock Stadium, the site of the national championship game, is Miami’s home field. However, during the season, the Canes never fill up Hard Rock stadium. The stadium seats 65000-66,000. Miami draws anywhere from 35,000 to 55,000 a game, usually around 45,000.

 

From the crowds at both the Rose and Peach Bowls, we know that Indiana has been dominating the attendance at its CFP games. Indiana fans will go to any extreme to get a ticket to the national title game. I wouldn’t be surprised if some Miami fans sell their tickets to Indiana fans. Anything to make a profit.

 

Along with the Indiana fans, I suspect a lot of local Miami area residents will be in the stadium cheering, not for the Canes, but for Indiana – for Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza grew up within walking distance of the Miami campus. He played football for and graduated from Christopher Columbus High School in Miami.

 

Mendoza’s father, also Fernando, is a pediatrician and director of a children’s health system in Miami. He too played football for and graduated from Christopher Columbus High School. In fact, and another quirk to the game, the father was high school friends with Miami coach Mario Critobal. They played football together at Christopher Columbus High School.

 

So, the Mendoza’s are well-known in Miami. Fernando will have a lot of local fans at the game. It will be interesting to see who the majority of fans in Hard Rock Stadium are cheering for on Monday night. It’s Miami’s home field, but it’s Fernando’s homecoming. What a scenario!

 

We may have a 16-team CFP next season after all. The conferences have until January 24 to come together on a decision. Actually, all conferences but the Big Ten are together. Nine of the conferences want a 16-team playoff. The Big Ten wants a 24-team playoff. If they don’t agree by January 24, then we will remain at a 12-team playoff again next year. Latest word is the Big Ten will agree to a 16-team playoff, if the other conferences agree to expanding to a 24-team playoff in three years. The 16-team playoff would consist of the four Power Four conference champions, the highest-ranked Group of Six conference champion and 11 at-large teams. All teams would be seeded as they are ranked in the final CFP rankings. Stay tuned!

 

Former Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola has found a new home. Raiola will be playing for the Oregon Ducks next season. However, current Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has chosen to remain at Oregon for another season. Moore did have serious thoughts of entering the NFL draft. So, what does that mean for Raiola? Former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt has signed with LSU.

 

Former Auburn wide receiver Cam Coleman will be teaming up with Arch Manning next season. Coleman signed with Texas. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss is now suing the NCAA to get another year of eligibility. Former Missouri quarterback Beau Pribula has transferred to Virginia. Former Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson has signed his draft papers. Simpson is declining all transfer offers.

 

He was a founding member of the Grateful Dead. Musician, singer and songwriter Bob Weir died on January 10. Weir played rhythm guitar for the Grateful Dead. Weir began playing the guitar at age 13, after less successful efforts with the piano and the trumpet. He was the lead vocalist on most of the Dead’s songs. A native of San Francisco, Robert Hall Weir was 78.

 

Sources say the Pittsburgh Steelers are showing interest in Curt Cignetti.

 

The weather during the game Monday night is supposed to be clear, with a temperature in the mid-50s.

 

Enjoy the championship game!

 

Touchdown Tom

January 15, 2026

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

 

Touchdown Tom’s Prediction for the College Football Playoff

 

College Football Playoff, Championship – (Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida) – 7:30 pm ET, Monday, ESPN – If I were an Indiana fan, I would be a little worried. All of the pregame buildup, hoopla, attention and commentary have been about Indiana and Fernando Mendoza. There has been very little mention of Miami. You would think Indiana has already won the game. This talk can’t be sitting well with the Miami players. They have to be getting mad. This could be the best thing Miami coach Mario Cristobal could ask for. He doesn’t need to fire up his players. The press, analysts and commentators are doing it for him. And this could be the worst thing Indiana coach Curt Cignetti could ask for. This could all be going to the heads of the Indiana players. If they are reading and listening to all this pregame commentary, they could become complacent and overconfident. Cignetti has to keep his players focused. He has to keep their heads on their shoulders. Against Oregon, Indiana got off to a fast start. However much of that was due to some breaks. The Hoosiers may not get any breaks from Miami. Talent wise, Miami and Indiana are about even. Miami has 10 blue-chip players (4 and 5-star), Indiana has 8. Is any pressure getting to Fernando Mendoza? He hasn’t been here before. Carson Beck has been here. Both teams have been playing good defense for the most part. Indiana held Alabama to 3 points. The Hoosiers held Oregon to 7 points until midway through the third quarter. Oregon’s additional points came late in the game after Indiana already had leads of 42-7 and 56-15. Miami went into Kyle Field in College Station and held Texas A&M to 3 points. The Canes held Ohio State to 14 points and 45 rushing yards. But Miami did give up 27 points, 400 total yards and 277 passing yards to Ole Miss. So, the Canes’ defense is not invulnerable. In addition to Carson Beck, Miami running back Mark Fletcher and receiver Malachi Toney could impact the game. In addition to Fernando Mendoza, Indiana running backs Roman Hemby and Kaelon Black and receivers Omar Cooper and Elijah Sarratt need to step up. Breaks could be the difference in the game. Mendoza shear subdues the Hurricane – Indiana 28, Miami 21.

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“I would have been remembered as the guy who chased money to Miami or Tennessee for a final season. But I was a captain. My handprints are in the cement at Denny Chimes. I would have lost everything I built at Alabama,” Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson, on why he stuck with entering the NFL draft as opposed to transferring to Miami or Tennessee for $6.5 million.

 

“If I were the Pittsburgh Steelers, I think the first person that I would call would be Marcus Freeman at Notre Dame,” ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky.

 

“The country music group Alabama is changing its name to Indiana,” Cat Daddy, calling into the Paul Finebaum Show.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

The next CFW – Week 22 Results – will be posted Tuesday morning, January 20.

 

Monday, January 12, 2026

CFW Week 20 Results - Who will quarterback Miami next year?

 CFW Week 20 Results – Who will quarterback Miami next year?

The Big Red Machine

 

No, not the Cincinnati Reds, but the Indiana Hoosiers. The Cincinnati Reds were the Big Red Machine in the 1970s because of their dominance in baseball. Indiana is the Big Red Machine now because of the Hoosiers dominance in the College Football Playoff. You can’t get much more dominant than 38-3 and 56-22.

 

Before the two CFP semifinal games were played last Thursday and Friday nights, the two games had one thing in common. In both contests, the favored team was a 4-point favorite. Miami was favored by 4 points over Ole Miss and Indiana was favored by 4 points over Oregon.

 

As it turned out, the two games had nothing in common, other than the favored team won in both games. Aside from that, there were no similarities in the two games. As predicted, Miami beat Ole Miss by 4 points. However, in the other contest, Indiana beat Oregon by 34 points.

 

The outcome of the Miami-Ole Miss game remained in doubt until the final play. All doubts about the outcome of the Indiana-Oregon game fell by the wayside at some point in the second quarter – probably when Indiana went up 28-7.

 

I could go on-and-on about the differences in the two games. Miami-Ole Miss combined for 58 points, while Indiana-Oregon combined for 78 points. Despite the closeness of the Miami-Ole Miss game, Miami all but dominated the stats, including a 23-minute edge in time of possession. Despite the Indiana-Oregon game not being close, the two teams were fairly even in the stats – including just a 3-minute edge for Indiana in time of possession.

 

So, we ended up with two entirely different semifinal games.

 

Ole Miss lost to Miami due to poor defensive play. Ole Miss head coach Pete Golding was the Magnolias’ interim defensive coordinator in the game. During the season, Golding was the full-time defensive coordinator. Playing the roles of both head coach and defensive coordinator, I think Golding had more than he could handle. In the quarterfinal win over Georgia, Ole Miss gave up 35 points to Georgia. In the semifinal, Ole Miss gave up 30 points to Miami.

 

Perhaps the most damaging thing to Ole Miss was time of possession – or the lack thereof. Miami controlled the ball for almost 42 minutes of the game. The Ole Miss defense couldn’t get Miami off the field. It’ hard to come out with a win when you only have the ball for about 18 minutes. The Canes all but dominated the field of play.

 

The game ended similar to how the first half neared its end. In the second quarter, with the score tied at 10-10, Ole Miss’s defense fell asleep. With 2:18 remaining in the first half, Carson Beck connected with Keelan Marlon on a 52-yard touchdown pass. Just like that, Miami was up 17-10. Ole Miss did manage a field goal before the half ended.

 

At the end of the second half, with Ole Miss winning 27-24, the Ole Miss defense fell asleep again. Miami easily moved down the field on a 6-play drive, scoring a touchdown with 0:18 left on the clock. Carson Beck scampered into the end zone on a three-yard run. Just like that, Miami was up 31-27. And so it ended.

 

As a starter, Carson Beck is 37-5.

 

After the outcome of the Indiana-Oregon game, Alabama fans shouldn’t be despondent over their loss to Indiana. The Tide limited the Hoosiers to 5 touchdowns. The Ducks gave up 8 touchdowns to the Hoosiers.

 

Indiana’s performance in its two CFP games has been nothing short of unbelievable. And Fernado Mendoza’s performance in Indiana’s two games has been nothing short of unbelievable. Combined, Mendoza was 31-for-36 passing in the two games, throwing a total of 8 touchdown passes. He had no interceptions.

 

If anyone had any doubts about Mendoza winning the Heisman Trophy, they shouldn’t have now. The right guy definitely won the Heisman.

 

Indiana is making a case to become one of the top teams, if not the top team, in college football history. The Hoosiers have won their two playoff games by a combined 69 points – averaging a 34.5-point margin of victory. If Indiana beats Miami in the championship game, the Hoosiers will become the first team to go 16-0.

 

Indiana is not only dominating the games, but also its fans are dominating the stadiums. In the Rose Bowl in Pasadena 80% of the 90,000 fans in attendance were Indiana fans. In Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, 85% to 90% of the 75,000 fans in attendance were Indiana fans.

 

Before we leave the Indiana-Oregon game, it’s interesting to note that Oregon has 55 four and five-star players on its roster. Indiana has 8 four and five-star players on its roster. Legendary Texas coach Darrell Royal used to say, “It’s not about the X’s and O’s, it’s about the Jimmy’s and Joe’s. Meaning, whoever has the superior players wins the games. I think Indiana is an exception to Royal’s axiom.

 

Oregon’s loss to Indiana was the second-straight ugly exit from the playoff for the Ducks. Last year Ohio State led Oregon 34-0 at halftime and went on to beat the Ducks, 41-21, in the playoff. Oregon coach Dan Lanning is now 0-2 in Atlanta’s Mercedes-Benz Stadium. At the start of the 2022 season, Lanning’s first as head coach at Oregon, the Ducks lost to Georgia 49-3.

 

Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has been seeking a waiver from the NCAA to allow him to play a sixth season. Chambliss, a transfer from Division II Ferris State, was requesting one more year of eligibility to play for Ole Miss. Friday, the NCAA denied his waiver for a sixth year of eligibility. Chambliss may or may not appeal the decision.

 

College players today really want to remain in school and keep playing for as long as they can. They look for every possible loophole, hoping to get an extra year or two eligibility. The reason? They are making lots of money playing college football. And as we know, money is addictive.

 

Florida State has lost 38 players to the transfer portal and Colorado has lost 35. Former Arizona State quarterback Sam Leavitt apparently has options from Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Miami. Former Florida quarterback D.J Lagway has committed to Baylor, but he is still in communication with Ole Miss. Stay tuned!

 

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson announced last week he was headed for the NFL draft. However, sources now say he may pull out of the draft and transfer to Miami. LSU and Tennessee also are trying to lure Simpson away from the NFL draft. Between the three schools, Simpson is being offered between $4 and $6.5 million. Stay tuned! And former NC State running back Hollywood Smothers, who committed to Alabama in a transfer portal move, has flipped his commitment to Texas.

 

Speaking of Alabama, why didn’t the Crimson Tide hire Curt Cignetti?

 

So, this upcoming week – Week 21 – is a quiet week. The week of silence before next week’s championship game.

 

Touchdown Tom

January 12, 2026

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

 

Review of the Two College Football Playoff Games

 

The Hurricane was a Cat 5 – (in the Fiesta Bowl) – Miami 31, Ole Miss 27 (Touchdown Tom said: Ole Miss 28, Miami 26). There were six lead changes in the game – four in the final seven minutes of the game. After trailing Miami since late in the second quarter, Ole Miss retook the lead at 19-17, with seven minutes left in the game. The score went back-and-forth until Miami took its final lead at 31-27. Carson Beck passed for 268 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Mark Fletcher ran for 133 yards. Receiver Keelan Marlon caught 7 passes for 114 yards and one touchdown. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 277 yards and one touchdown. Running back Kewan Lacy ran for 103 yards and one touchdown. Except for passing yards, Miami dominated the other stats – more first downs, more total yards, more running yards, more penalties and an amazing 23-minute edge in time of possession. Miami suffered one turnover. Ole Miss had none. Attendance in Glendale: 67,928

 

Peking Duck – (in the Peach Bowl) – Indiana 56, Oregon 22 (Touchdown Tom said: Indiana 28, Oregon 24). Just 11 seconds into the game, Indiana asserted its dominance when D’Angelo Ponds intercepted a Dante Moore pass and returned it 25 yards for a touchdown. Oregon briefly showed signs of life when Danre Moore hit Jamari Johnson for a 19-yard touchdown pass. The score was 7-7. Maybe we had a ball game. But we didn’t. Indiana proceeded to score an amazing 35-unanswered points (5 touchdowns) to take a 42-7 lead over Oregon. This was mid-third quarter. Oregon responded with a touchdown, but Indiana responded with two more touchdowns. With 5:13 remaining in the game, the Hoosiers led 56-15. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza was 17-20-0, passing for 177 yards and five touchdowns. He ran for another 28 yards. Indiana receiver Elijah Sarratt had 7 catches for 75 yards and two touchdowns. Oregon was the stronger passing team (285 yards to 177 yards), but Indiana was the stronger running team (185 yards to 93 yards). Oregon had three turnovers and Indiana had none. Both teams had 5 penalties. Attendance in Atlanta:  75,604

 

Quarterfinal CFP Picks:   1 winner, 1 fumble

Total CFP Picks:               5 winners, 5 fumbles

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“Why didn’t Alabama hire someone from the Saban tree?” ESPN’s Pat McAfee.

 

“He’s hungry, he’s driven, he’s a great human being, and all he wants to do is to see his teammates have success,” Miami coach Mario Cristobal, on his quarterback Carson Beck.

 

“I’m really not thinkin’ about the next game. I’m thinkin’ about crackin’ open a beer,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, when asked about Miami, during his post-game interview, following the win over Oregon.

 

Joke of the Week

 

“Bevo is hitting the transfer portal. He’s signing with LongHorn Steak House.”

 

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

 

P.S.

 

Not exactly college football related, but on the 12th day of the New Year, as college football fans were still celebrating playoff wins, commiserating over playoff losses, worrying about New Year’s resolutions and going back to work or school, the number one song in the country…

 

…85 years ago, this week in 1941, was “Frenesi” by Artie Shaw and His Orchestra

 

…80 years ago, this week in 1946, was “Symphony” by Freddy Martin and His Orchestra, and “I Can’t Begin To Tell You” by Bing Crosby

 

…75 years ago, this week in 1951, was “The Tennessee Waltz” by Patti Page

 

…70 years ago, this week in 1956, was “Sixteen Tons” by Tennessee Ernie Ford, and “Memories Are Made Of This” by Dean Martin

 

…65 years ago, this week in 1961, was “Wonderland By Night” by Bert Kaempfert

 

…60 years ago, this week in 1966, was “The Sound of Silence” by Simon & Garfunkel, and “We Can Work It Out” by The Beatles

 

…55 years ago, this week in 1971, was “My Sweet Lord” by George Harrison

 

…50 years ago, this week in 1976, was “Saturday Night” by The Bay City Rollers, and “Convoy” by C.W. McCall

 

…45 years ago, this week in 1981, was “(Just Like) Starting Over” by John Lennon

 

…40 years ago, this week in 1986, was “Say You, Say Me” by Lionel Richie

 

…35 years ago, this week in 1991, was “Justify My Love” by Madonna

 

The next CFW – Week 22 Forecast – will be posted Thursday morning, January 15.

 

Thursday, January 8, 2026

CFW Week 20 Forecast - Ty Simpson to the NFL

 CFW Week 20 Forecast – Ty Simpson to the NFL

College Football’s ‘Final Four’

 

So, if all things were perfect, wouldn’t we have Indiana playing either Miami or Ole Miss in one semifinal and Oregon playing either Miami or Ole Miss in the other semifinal. Why does it appear that Indiana and Oregon are the two best of the remaining teams. Well, Indiana and Oregon are the two highest-ranked teams.

 

Everybody I’ve been talking to thinks that Indiana and Oregon should be playing in the finals. But hold your horses. In the first round, Texas A&M was favored over Miami. Look what happened. The Canes beat the Aggies, 10-3. Then in the quarterfinals, Georgia was favored over Ole Miss and Ohio State was favored over Miami. And look what happened. The Magnolias beat the Bark Boys, 39-34, and the Canes beat the Buckeyes, 24-14.

 

So, let’s say we had a semifinal of Indiana playing Miami and Oregon playing Ole Miss (or Indiana playing Ole Miss and Oregon playing Miami), there is no guarantee that the Hoosiers and the Ducks would win. The first round and the quarterfinals showed us that. When you get down to this level of competition at this point in the playoff, anything can happen. The four teams are simply that good. Together, Indiana, Oregon, Ole Miss and Miami have a combined record of 52-4. That’s pretty impressive.

 

It all begins tonight, folks. At 7:30 pm ET, #6 Ole Miss takes on #10 Miami. The committee got it right. Miami has justified its selection to the playoff. Let the Trinidad Chambliss-Carson Beck battle begin. Can Chambliss and Kewan Lacy penetrate the Miami defense? Stay tuned!

 

It continues tomorrow night. At 7:30 pm ET, #5 Oregon takes on #1 Indiana. Will the Curt Cignetti aura continue? Let the Dante Moore-Fernando Mendoza battle resume. And whose defense will be superior? Stay tuned!

 

So, it seems crazy that Miami-Ole Miss are being sent out to Glendale, Arizona (Fiesta Bowl), for their game, while Oregon is being sent to Atlanta, Georgia (Peach Bowl), for its game against Indiana. It seems like Indiana is the only winner in this scenario. Oh well, Oregon has been here before. The Ducks had to travel all the way to Miami Gardens, Florida (Orange Bowl) for their quarterfinal game against Texas Tech. It obviously didn’t bother them. That’s a lot of cross-country traveling for Oregon fans.

 

And it could get worse. If Oregon wins tomorrow night, Ducks’ fans have to travel back to Miami Gardens, Florida, the following week for the championship game. Three cross-country trips? I hope Phil Knight is subsidizing them.

 

Now that we are down to one transfer portal window per year, the transfer portal is busier than it has ever been. It’s downright bustling. The portal opened last Friday (January 2) and will remain open until January 16. The next portal won’t be until January 2027. So, players either hop aboard now or wait until next year.

 

Here’s a cursory look at the portal activity. Several players are following their former bosses. North Texas quarterback Drew Mastemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins are following their former boss, Eric Morris, to Oklahoma State. Morris is the new head coach of the Cowboys. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht is following his former boss, Matt Campbell, to Penn State. Campbell is the new head coach of the Nittany Lions. And South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown is following his former boss, Alex Golesh, to Auburn. Golesh is the new head coach of the Tigers.

 

Old Dominion quarterback, Colton Joseph, is transferring to Wisconsin. Joseph is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Former Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold is leaving the Tigers to become Dan Mullen’s new quarterback at UNLV. Mullen’s former quarterback, Anthony Colandrea, is transferring to Nebraska. Another former Auburn quarterback Ashton Daniels is transferring to Florida State.

 

At Indiana, Curt Cignetti’s new quarterback next year will be former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover. There was some serious competition between LSU and Texas Tech for the services of Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Tech won out. Sorsby will be quarterbacking the Red Raiders next year. NC State running back Hollywood Smothers is transferring to Alabama. And Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is transferring to Northwestern, where Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator.

 

Meanwhile, Washington quarterback Demond Williams, who initially signed a contract to remain with the Huskies, changed his mind. Williams wants to enter the transfer portal. Washington is pursuing legal action to enforce the contract. And, vice versa, Williams is challenging Washington to get out of his contract. Apparently, LSU has expressed interest in Williams.

 

Some players, of course, are entering the NFL draft. One of those is Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson announced yesterday he will be entering the April NFL draft.

 

Speaking of the portal, all four quarterbacks in the Final Four are transfer portal quarterbacks playing for the first year at their respective schools. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza transferred to the Hoosiers from California; Oregon’s Dante Moore transferred to the Ducks from UCLA; Miami’s Carson Beck transferred to the Canes from Georgia, and Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss transferred to the Magnolias from Division II Ferris State.

 

For those of you who saw it, you know what a good game it was. For those of you who missed it, you missed a blockbuster. Monday night, Montana State won the FCS National Championship, beating Illinois State 35-34 (OT). At halftime, Montana State led Illinois State, 21-7. As the fourth quarter began, the Bobcats led the Red Birds, 28-14. Then, during a 5-minute span in the fourth quarter, Illinois State scored back-to-back touchdowns. The second of the two touchdowns came with 5:10 remaining in the game. The score was tied 28-28. At the end of regulation, the score was still tied.

 

In overtime, Illinois State had the ball first. It just took two plays for the Red Birds to score. But, their extra point kick was blocked. Illinois State led 34-28. Montana State moved to the 15-yard line on their first play in overtime. But then, the Bobcats stalled. After three downs, they had only advanced one yard. It was fourth down. Do or die for Montana State. Bobcats quarterback Justin Lamson connected on a 14-yard touchdown pass to receiver Taco Dowler – 34-34. Montana State kicked its extra point and beat Illinois State, 35-34 (OT).

 

Looking at the stats, you wonder how in the heck did Montana State ever win. Illinois State had more first downs (33-20), more total yards (471 to 381), more passing yards (311 to 280), more rushing yards (160 to 101), fewer penalties (5-14) and a 19-minute edge in time of possession. Nine of Montana State’s 14 penalties were false starts.

 

Monday (January 5) I provided the results of the Division III national championship game in the Online (Website/Social Media) edition of CFW. I failed to provide the score of the game in the Email edition of CFW. For those of you who receive the Email edition, Wisconsin-River Falls beat North Central, 24-14. A crowd of 2,403 attended the game in Canton, Ohio.

 

Enjoy the Final Four.

 

Touchdown Tom

January 8, 2026

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

 

FCS Championship

 

Montana State 35, Illinois State 34 (OT) – Attendance in Nashville: 24,105

 

 

Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for Two College Football Playoff Games

 

Miami (12-2) vs. Ole Miss (13-1) – (ACC vs. SEC) – College Football Playoff, Semifinal – Fiesta Bowl (State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona) – 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – This one is going to be interesting. Miami’s defense has been invincible in the Canes’ two CFP games. Miami held Texas A&M to 3 points and Ohio State to 14 points. And, in their last game of the regular season, Miami held Pitt to 7 points. So in their last three games the Canes have held their opponents to a combined 24 points. That’s 8 points a game. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss offense has scored 30 or more points in its last eight games. The Magnolias have scored 80 points in their two CFP games – 41 against Tulane and 39 against Georgia. So in CFP games, Miami’s defense is holding opponents to 8.5 points a game. Ole Miss’s offense is averaging 40 points a game. Tonight, in Glendale, Arizona, something’s got to give. Miami comes in on a 6-game winning streak. Carson Beck has passed for 3,313 yards and 27 touchdowns. Mark Fletcher has run for 947 yards. Malachi Toney has 94 catches for 1,008 yards. Ole Miss enters the game on a 7-game winning streak. Trinidad Chambliss has passed for 3,660 yards and 21 touchdowns. Kewan Lacy has rushed for 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns. Harrison Wallace has caught 57 passes for 894 yards. The Canes are reduced to a tropical depression – Ole Miss 28, Miami 26.

 

Oregon (13-1) vs. Indiana (14-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – College Football Playoff, Semifinal – Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia) – 7:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – This one is going to be interesting too. During the season, the two teams met in Eugene. Indiana scored 10 points in the final 6 minutes of the game to beat Oregon, 30-20. Last week, in the CFP quarterfinal, Oregon’s defense kept Texas Tech from scoring – no touchdowns and no field goals for the Red Raiders. Meanwhile, Oregon’s offense averages 38 points a game. The Ducks enter the game on a 8-game winning streak. Dante Moore has passed for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns. Last week, in the CFP quarterfinal, Indiana’s offense scored 38 points on Alabama. Fernando Mendoza has passed for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns. He’s Mister Touchdown. Roman Hemby has rushed for 1,007 yards. Omar Cooper has 61 catches for 849 yards. Indiana’s offense averages 42 points a game. The Hoosiers enter the game on a 14-game winning streak. They haven’t lost. Puddles becomes Duck a l’red – Indiana 28, Oregon 24.

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“There’s no way to defend the SEC. It’s been terrible,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, speaking on ESPN’s First Take on Tuesday morning.

 

To which, Heartland College Sports Joe Tillery responded, “Well folks, Paul Finebaum is finally giving up. He has waved the white flag in terms of defending the SEC.”

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

The next CFW – Week 20 Results – will be posted Monday morning, January 12.

 

Monday, January 5, 2026

CFW Week 19 Results - Transfer portal open and it's active

 CFW Week 19 Results – Transfer portal open and it’s active

Oregon’s defense, Trinidad Chambliss, and

there was nothing sweet about Alabama

 

Oregon’s defense was dynamite. Trinidad Chambliss gave a spectacular performance. Alabama has lost its mystique. Fernando Mendoza added credence to his Heisman win. And with a 4th-and-2 on your own 33 yard line, Kirby Smart must be having second thoughts about going for the first down instead of punting.

 

The final three quarterfinal games of the college football playoff are history and there were a few surprises. Perhaps more than a few.

 

In Oregon’s 23-0 win over Texas Tech, you can’t say enough good things about the Ducks’ defense. It was awesome, it was powerful, it was overwhelming and it was unbelievable. As Tina Turner once said, “It was simply the best, better than all the rest.”

 

During the season, Texas Tech’s offense averaged 40 points (almost six touchdowns) a game. Oregon’s defense held Tech to zero points (0 touchdowns). During the season, the Red Raiders averaged 280 yards a game passing and 183 yards a game running. Oregon’s defense held Tech to 137 yards passing and 78 yards running.

 

During the season, Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton completed 66% of his passes. Against Oregon, Morton completed 56% of his passes. You can’t say enough about Oregon’s defense.

 

Oregon’s offense deserves some credit too. During the season no one scored as many as 23 points on Texas Tech. Six teams scored less than 10 points against Tech. Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0.

 

In Ole Miss’s 39-34 win over Georgia, you can’t say enough good things about Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss. His scrambling to avoid sacks, his ability to find open receivers and his accurate passing were sensational. In particular, his ability to make amazing plays at key and tense moments during the game was inspiring.

 

Chambliss finished the game 30-46-0, passing for 362 yards and two touchdowns. During the season, Georgia held opposing quarterbacks to 215 passing yards a game. During the season, Georgia held opponents to 17 points a game. Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34.

 

And then there was Alabama. Indiana crushed the Crimson Tide, 38-3. To save face, Alabama coach Kellen DeBoer chose to kick a field goal on fourth down when he should have gone for a first down/touchdown. I guess 3 looks better than 0.

 

During the season, Alabama averaged 265 passing yards a game. The Tide had 170 passing yards

Against Indiana. During the season, the Tide averaged 105 rushing yards a game. Against Indiana, Alabama had 23 rushing yards. Alabama only managed 11 first downs against Indiana. During the season, Alabama averaged 31 points a game (3 points against Indiana). During the season, Alabama held opponents to 17 points a game (Indiana had 38 points).

 

Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson looked like a deer caught in the headlights. He had that Florida State-game-look in his face. Alabama began the season losing to Florida State, 31-17. The Crimson Tide ended the season losing to Indiana, 38-3.

 

Back to Miami’s 24-14 win over Ohio State on Wednesday night. Someone commented that against its three tough opponents, Ohio State, who averaged 35 points (5 touchdowns) a game during the season, only had 14 points in its opener against Texas. And at the end of the season, only 10 points against Indiana and only 14 points against Miami. And to think Ohio State had three players finish in the top-10 voting for the Heisman Trophy.

 

The Ole Miss-Georgia game was a rematch. In the first game, as the fourth quarter began, Ole miss led Georgia by 9 points. Ole Miss lost, 43-35. In the second game, as the fourth quarter began, Georgia led Ole Miss by 5 points. Georgia lost, 39-34. The Magnolias couldn’t beat Georgia under Lane Kiffin, but Ole Miss beat Georgia without Lane Kiffin. Hats off to Pete Golding.

 

So, Miami over Ohio State and Ole Miss over Georgia were definite upsets. And, although Indiana was favored over Alabama by the betting services, most people, including the entire ESPN GameDay crew, picked Alabama to win. Oregon was favored over Texas Tech, but only by 3 points. Yes, the CFP quarterfinals were full of surprises.

 

For the record, Miami is a 4-point favorite over Ole Miss and Indiana is a 4-point favorite over Oregon in the semifinals. Stay tuned!

 

Except for the playing of the CFP semifinal and championship games, Friday brought an end to the bowl season. In the first of the final four bowl games, Texas State bid farewell to the Sun Belt Conference with a 41-10 win over Rice in the Armed Forces bowl. Next year, Texas State will be competing in the revamped Pac-12 Conference.

 

In beating Cincinnati 35-13, in the Liberty Bowl, Navy bid farewell to its dynamic senior trio – quarterback Blake Horvath, slotback Eli Heidenreich and fullback Alex Tecza. Those three players led Navy to a 21-5 record the past two seasons.

 

Two ACC teams won the final two games of the night on January 2. Both capped off very good seasons with identical 9-4 records. In the Holiday Bowl, SMU beat Arizona, 24-19. In the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, Wake Forest beat Mississippi State, 43-29. Would you believe that during the season, Wake Forest beat SMU, 13-12, on a 50-yard field goal as time expired. Believe it.

 

Not counting the college football playoff games, there were 35 bowl games. The best conferences in bowl competition were the Big Ten (6-3), the American Conference (5-3) and the ACC (6-4). The worst conference was the SEC (1-5). After the SEC, the MWC (2-5). The SEC lost twice to the Big Ten, twice to the ACC and once to the Big 12. The SEC’s lone win was Texas over Michigan.

 

The 15-day college football transfer portal window opened on January 2. It closes on Friday, January 16. In just the first three days, the portal activity has been busy, wild and crazy.

 

You can go home again. Former Clemson offensive coordinator Chad Morris is returning to Clemson as the OC again. Under Dabo Swinney, Morris made a name for himself as Clemson’s OC for four seasons from 2011 to 2014. He left Clemson to become the coach at SMU and then Arkansas. He was fired by Arkansas in 2019. Since then, Morris has been on staffs at Auburn, South Florida, Texas State and Virginia, mostly in an advisory and consulting role. This past season, he was an offensive advisor at Virginia, where his son Chandler was quarterback.

 

I hope you are enjoying the New Year!

 

Touchdown Tom

January 5, 2026

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

 

Review of the Final Four Bowl Games

 

Risotto – (in the Armed Forces Bowl) – Texas State 41, Rice 10 (Touchdown Tom said: Texas State 34, Rice 25). It was just a three-point game at halftime. Texas State led 10-7. Then the Bobcats exploded for 31 unanswered points in the second half. At the 9:40 mark in the fourth quarter, Texas State led 41-7. Texas State quarterback Brad Jackson passed for 173 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for 52 yards and another touchdown. Texas State had more first downs (24 to 12), more total yards (436 to 195), more passing yards (195 to 94) and more rushing yards (241 to 101). Rice had more turnovers (3 to 1). Attendance in Fort Worth: 28,243

 

Fair winds and following seas – (in the Liberty Bowl) – Navy 35, Cincinnati 13 (Touchdown Tom said: Cincinnati 30, Navy 25). Late in the first quarter, Navy took a 7-0 lead and the Middies never trailed for the rest of the game. At the 10 minute mark in the fourth quarter, Navy had built its lead to 28-7. The Navy trio of Blake Horvath, Eli Heidenreich and Alex Tecza did their usual share of damage. Quarterback Horvath passed for 108 yards and two touchdowns. He also ran for 53 yards and another touchdown. Slotback Heidenreich ran for 62 yards and caught five passes for 64 yards and a touchdown. Fullback Tecza rushed for 80 yards and a touchdown. Navy dominated the game with more first downs (22 to 12), more total yards (349 to 239), more passing yards (108 to 97) and more rushing yards (241 to 142). Navy had a 7-minute edge in time of possession. Attendance in Memphis: 21,908

 

No holiday for the Wildcats – (in the Holiday Bowl) – SMU 24, Arizona 19 (Touchdown Tom said: Arizona 27, SMU 24). SMU did all of its damage in the first half. The Mustangs scored all 24 of their points in the first two quarters. At halftime, SMU led Arizona, 24-0. The Wildcats came to life in the second half, but it was too little too late. Oddly enough, SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings threw three interceptions, and the Mustangs still won the game. The teams combined for 833 total yards. Attendance in San Diego: 30,602

 

Deacons bully the Dogs – (in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl) – Wake Forest 43, Mississippi State 29  (Touchdown Tom said: Wake Forest 28, Mississippi State 26). Miss State opened the scoring with a 33-yard field goal just two minutes into the game. Wake Forest returned the ensuing kickoff for a touchdown, converted on a two-point conversion and went up 8-3. The Demon Deacons never trailed for the remainder of the game. With 4:19 to go in the third quarter, Wake Forest built its lead to 30-12. Then it got interesting. Miss State closed the gap to 30-27, early in the fourth quarter. Following a Wake Forest touchdown at the 4:07 mark in the fourth, Miss State returned a blocked extra-point kick for two points. Miss State trailed, 36-29. Two minutes later, Wake iced the game with a 62-yard touchdown pass from quarterback Robby Ashford to running back Ty Clark. Ashford passed for 303 yards and three touchdowns. Clark rushed for 91 yards and had three catches for 73 yards. Wake dominated the stats with more first downs, total yards, passing yards and rushing yards. Both teams were undisciplined. There were 16 penalties in the game. Attendance in Charlotte: 29,328

 

Final Four Bowl Game Picks:  2 winners, 2 fumbles (50 percent)

Total Bowl Game Picks:       20 winners, 15 fumbles (57.1 percent)

 

 

Review of the College Football Playoff (Quarterfinals)

 

Skunked – (in the Orange Bowl) – Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0 (Touchdown Tom said: Texas Tech 29, Oregon 27). Oregon dominated the game from the start. However, it was really anybody’s ballgame until the fourth quarter. The Ducks led 3-0 after one quarter and 6-0 at halftime. The Oregon lead was just 13-0 as the fourth quarter began. Seven minutes into the fourth quarter, the Ducks lead was 16-0. Except for the one touchdown in the third quarter, the Texas Tech defense held Oregon to three field goals. Oregon’s final score, its second touchdown, came with only 0:16 remaining in the game. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was 26-33-1, passing for 234 yards and one touchdown. The Ducks’ defense held Tech to 215 total yards. Oregon only had 64 yards rushing. Tech suffered from 4 turnovers. Oregon held a 16-minute advantage in time of possession. Attendance in Miami Gardens: 65,021

 

The Tide were a bunch of suds – (in the Rose Bowl) – Indiana 38, Alabama 3 (Touchdown Tom said: Indiana 28, Alabama 21). After one quarter, it was anybody’s ballgame. The score was 0-0. Then, Indiana took charge in the second quarter – complete charge. The Hoosiers led the Tide 17-0 at halftime. But, against Oklahoma, Alabama was down 17-0 and came back to win. However, against Indiana, the Tide would not experience déjà vu. Indiana increased its lead to 24-0 midway through the third quarter. For good measure, Alabama kicked a field goal late in the third quarter. Indiana added two early fourth quarter touchdowns. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza was 14-16-0, passing for 192 yards and three touchdowns. Hoosier running backs Kaelon Black and Roman Hemby rushed for 99 yards and 89 yards, respectively. Each scored a touchdown. Indiana totally dominated Alabama . The Hoosiers had more first downs (22 to 11), more total yards (407 to 193), more passing yards (192 to 170), and more rushing yards (215 to 23). Indiana held a 9-minute edge in time of possession. Attendance in Pasadena: 90,278

 

The Bark Boys were Barf Boys – (in the Sugar Bowl) – Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34 (Touchdown Tom said: Georgia 28, Ole Miss 26). This was a wild one – especially in the second half. There were four lead changes in the game. Early in the second quarter, Ole Miss led 12-7. Georgia scored two touchdowns in the final four minutes of the second quarter. The Dawgs led 21-12 at halftime. After three quarters, Georgia still led, but it was closer – 24-19. Ole Miss scored back-to-back touchdowns in the first 6 minutes of the fourth quarter. The Magnolias led 34-24. The Tide had turned and it was looking good for Ole Miss. But Georgia responded with 10 unanswered points. The Dawgs kicked a 58-yard field goal with 0:56 remaining. The game was tied, 34-34. In the next 50 seconds, Ole Miss advanced the ball to the Georgia 30. With 0:06 on the clock, Ole Miss kicked a 47-yard field goal to win the game. The Magnolias added insult to injury with a 2-point safety. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss passed for 362 yards and two touchdowns. Running back Kewan Lacy ran for 98 yards and two touchdowns. Ole Miss receiver Harrison Wallace had 9 catches for 156 yards and one touchdown. Receiver De Zhaun Stribling had 7 catches for 122 yards. The teams combined for 816 total yards. Ole Miss had 473 of those yards. Attendance in New Orleans: 68,371

 

Quarterfinal CFP Picks: 1 winner, 2 fumbles

Current CFP Picks:     4 winners, 4 fumbles

 

 

Division III Championship

 

Wisconsin-River Falls 24, North Central 14 - Attendance in Canton, Ohio: 2,403

 

 

Superlatives

 

Impressive Passers:

 

Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss – 30-46-0-362 (2TDs).

 

Impressive Runners:

 

Texas State’s Lincoln Pare – 106 yards (1TD).

 

 

FCS Championship

 

Illinois State (12-4) vs. Montana State (13-2) – (Missouri Valley vs. Big Sky) – FirstBank Stadium – Nashville, Tennessee – 7:30 pm ET, Monday, ESPN….

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“Alabama had it shoved down their throat by Curt Cignetti, who coached like Nick Saban, ESPN’s Paul Finebaum.

 

“Chambliss was just incredible. He did an unbelievable jib of not taking sacks and making big plays with his legs,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart, on Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

 

The next CFW – Week 20 Forecast – will be posted Thursday morning, January 8.