CFW Week 20 Forecast – Ty Simpson to the NFL
College Football’s ‘Final Four’
So, if all things were perfect, wouldn’t we have Indiana playing either Miami or Ole Miss in one semifinal and Oregon playing either Miami or Ole Miss in the other semifinal. Why does it appear that Indiana and Oregon are the two best of the remaining teams. Well, Indiana and Oregon are the two highest-ranked teams.
Everybody I’ve been talking to thinks that Indiana and Oregon should be playing in the finals. But hold your horses. In the first round, Texas A&M was favored over Miami. Look what happened. The Canes beat the Aggies, 10-3. Then in the quarterfinals, Georgia was favored over Ole Miss and Ohio State was favored over Miami. And look what happened. The Magnolias beat the Bark Boys, 39-34, and the Canes beat the Buckeyes, 24-14.
So, let’s say we had a semifinal of Indiana playing Miami and Oregon playing Ole Miss (or Indiana playing Ole Miss and Oregon playing Miami), there is no guarantee that the Hoosiers and the Ducks would win. The first round and the quarterfinals showed us that. When you get down to this level of competition at this point in the playoff, anything can happen. The four teams are simply that good. Together, Indiana, Oregon, Ole Miss and Miami have a combined record of 52-4. That’s pretty impressive.
It all begins tonight, folks. At 7:30 pm ET, #6 Ole Miss takes on #10 Miami. The committee got it right. Miami has justified its selection to the playoff. Let the Trinidad Chambliss-Carson Beck battle begin. Can Chambliss and Kewan Lacy penetrate the Miami defense? Stay tuned!
It continues tomorrow night. At 7:30 pm ET, #5 Oregon takes on #1 Indiana. Will the Curt Cignetti aura continue? Let the Dante Moore-Fernando Mendoza battle resume. And whose defense will be superior? Stay tuned!
So, it seems crazy that Miami-Ole Miss are being sent out to Glendale, Arizona (Fiesta Bowl), for their game, while Oregon is being sent to Atlanta, Georgia (Peach Bowl), for its game against Indiana. It seems like Indiana is the only winner in this scenario. Oh well, Oregon has been here before. The Ducks had to travel all the way to Miami Gardens, Florida (Orange Bowl) for their quarterfinal game against Texas Tech. It obviously didn’t bother them. That’s a lot of cross-country traveling for Oregon fans.
And it could get worse. If Oregon wins tomorrow night, Ducks’ fans have to travel back to Miami Gardens, Florida, the following week for the championship game. Three cross-country trips? I hope Phil Knight is subsidizing them.
Now that we are down to one transfer portal window per year, the transfer portal is busier than it has ever been. It’s downright bustling. The portal opened last Friday (January 2) and will remain open until January 16. The next portal won’t be until January 2027. So, players either hop aboard now or wait until next year.
Here’s a cursory look at the portal activity. Several players are following their former bosses. North Texas quarterback Drew Mastemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins are following their former boss, Eric Morris, to Oklahoma State. Morris is the new head coach of the Cowboys. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht is following his former boss, Matt Campbell, to Penn State. Campbell is the new head coach of the Nittany Lions. And South Florida quarterback Byrum Brown is following his former boss, Alex Golesh, to Auburn. Golesh is the new head coach of the Tigers.
Old Dominion quarterback, Colton Joseph, is transferring to Wisconsin. Joseph is one of the best dual-threat quarterbacks in the country. Former Auburn quarterback Jackson Arnold is leaving the Tigers to become Dan Mullen’s new quarterback at UNLV. Mullen’s former quarterback, Anthony Colandrea, is transferring to Nebraska. Another former Auburn quarterback Ashton Daniels is transferring to Florida State.
At Indiana, Curt Cignetti’s new quarterback next year will be former TCU quarterback Josh Hoover. There was some serious competition between LSU and Texas Tech for the services of Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby. Tech won out. Sorsby will be quarterbacking the Red Raiders next year. NC State running back Hollywood Smothers is transferring to Alabama. And Michigan State quarterback Aidan Chiles is transferring to Northwestern, where Chip Kelly is the new offensive coordinator.
Meanwhile, Washington quarterback Demond Williams, who initially signed a contract to remain with the Huskies, changed his mind. Williams wants to enter the transfer portal. Washington is pursuing legal action to enforce the contract. And, vice versa, Williams is challenging Washington to get out of his contract. Apparently, LSU has expressed interest in Williams.
Some players, of course, are entering the NFL draft. One of those is Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson. Simpson announced yesterday he will be entering the April NFL draft.
Speaking of the portal, all four quarterbacks in the Final Four are transfer portal quarterbacks playing for the first year at their respective schools. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza transferred to the Hoosiers from California; Oregon’s Dante Moore transferred to the Ducks from UCLA; Miami’s Carson Beck transferred to the Canes from Georgia, and Ole Miss’s Trinidad Chambliss transferred to the Magnolias from Division II Ferris State.
For those of you who saw it, you know what a good game it was. For those of you who missed it, you missed a blockbuster. Monday night, Montana State won the FCS National Championship, beating Illinois State 35-34 (OT). At halftime, Montana State led Illinois State, 21-7. As the fourth quarter began, the Bobcats led the Red Birds, 28-14. Then, during a 5-minute span in the fourth quarter, Illinois State scored back-to-back touchdowns. The second of the two touchdowns came with 5:10 remaining in the game. The score was tied 28-28. At the end of regulation, the score was still tied.
In overtime, Illinois State had the ball first. It just took two plays for the Red Birds to score. But, their extra point kick was blocked. Illinois State led 34-28. Montana State moved to the 15-yard line on their first play in overtime. But then, the Bobcats stalled. After three downs, they had only advanced one yard. It was fourth down. Do or die for Montana State. Bobcats quarterback Justin Lamson connected on a 14-yard touchdown pass to receiver Taco Dowler – 34-34. Montana State kicked its extra point and beat Illinois State, 35-34 (OT).
Looking at the stats, you wonder how in the heck did Montana State ever win. Illinois State had more first downs (33-20), more total yards (471 to 381), more passing yards (311 to 280), more rushing yards (160 to 101), fewer penalties (5-14) and a 19-minute edge in time of possession. Nine of Montana State’s 14 penalties were false starts.
Monday (January 5) I provided the results of the Division III national championship game in the Online (Website/Social Media) edition of CFW. I failed to provide the score of the game in the Email edition of CFW. For those of you who receive the Email edition, Wisconsin-River Falls beat North Central, 24-14. A crowd of 2,403 attended the game in Canton, Ohio.
Enjoy the Final Four.
Touchdown Tom
January 8, 2026
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
FCS Championship
Montana State 35, Illinois State 34 (OT) – Attendance in Nashville: 24,105
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for Two College Football Playoff Games
Miami (12-2) vs. Ole Miss (13-1) – (ACC vs. SEC) – College Football Playoff, Semifinal – Fiesta Bowl (State Farm Stadium – Glendale, Arizona) – 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – This one is going to be interesting. Miami’s defense has been invincible in the Canes’ two CFP games. Miami held Texas A&M to 3 points and Ohio State to 14 points. And, in their last game of the regular season, Miami held Pitt to 7 points. So in their last three games the Canes have held their opponents to a combined 24 points. That’s 8 points a game. Meanwhile, the Ole Miss offense has scored 30 or more points in its last eight games. The Magnolias have scored 80 points in their two CFP games – 41 against Tulane and 39 against Georgia. So in CFP games, Miami’s defense is holding opponents to 8.5 points a game. Ole Miss’s offense is averaging 40 points a game. Tonight, in Glendale, Arizona, something’s got to give. Miami comes in on a 6-game winning streak. Carson Beck has passed for 3,313 yards and 27 touchdowns. Mark Fletcher has run for 947 yards. Malachi Toney has 94 catches for 1,008 yards. Ole Miss enters the game on a 7-game winning streak. Trinidad Chambliss has passed for 3,660 yards and 21 touchdowns. Kewan Lacy has rushed for 1,464 yards and 23 touchdowns. Harrison Wallace has caught 57 passes for 894 yards. The Canes are reduced to a tropical depression – Ole Miss 28, Miami 26.
Oregon (13-1) vs. Indiana (14-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – College Football Playoff, Semifinal – Peach Bowl (Mercedes-Benz Stadium – Atlanta, Georgia) – 7:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – This one is going to be interesting too. During the season, the two teams met in Eugene. Indiana scored 10 points in the final 6 minutes of the game to beat Oregon, 30-20. Last week, in the CFP quarterfinal, Oregon’s defense kept Texas Tech from scoring – no touchdowns and no field goals for the Red Raiders. Meanwhile, Oregon’s offense averages 38 points a game. The Ducks enter the game on a 8-game winning streak. Dante Moore has passed for 3,280 yards and 28 touchdowns. Last week, in the CFP quarterfinal, Indiana’s offense scored 38 points on Alabama. Fernando Mendoza has passed for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns. He’s Mister Touchdown. Roman Hemby has rushed for 1,007 yards. Omar Cooper has 61 catches for 849 yards. Indiana’s offense averages 42 points a game. The Hoosiers enter the game on a 14-game winning streak. They haven’t lost. Puddles becomes Duck a l’red – Indiana 28, Oregon 24.
Quotes of the Week
“There’s no way to defend the SEC. It’s been terrible,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, speaking on ESPN’s First Take on Tuesday morning.
To which, Heartland College Sports Joe Tillery responded, “Well folks, Paul Finebaum is finally giving up. He has waved the white flag in terms of defending the SEC.”
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 20 Results – will be posted Monday morning, January 12.
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