CFW Week 19 Results/Forecast – Chip Kelly is back
Josh Heupel and Lincoln Riley were losers;
Arch Manning looked like a Heisman
Winner; and how about those Canes?
“Another year over
A new one just begun”
And how about those Dookies too!
Tennessee coach Josh Heupel and USC coach Lincoln Riley are going down instead of up. Did you see Arch Manning run 23 yards and 60 yards for touchdowns? Well, he did. Miami’s win over Ohio State may be the upset of the season. And ACC champion Duke can add the Sun Bowl championship to its laurels.
The bowl action resumed on Monday with one game. In a rematch between two teams from the same conference, Georgia Southern beat Appalachian State for the second time this season. The Eagles downed App State, 29-10, in the Birmingham Bowl.
Tuesday was a busier day with three games. The first game was a sloppily played, forgettable contest. Louisiana Tech beat Coastal Carolina, 23-14, in the Independence Bowl.
Following a dull and boring start with the Birmingham and Independence Bowls, the activity got better and more interesting in the next two games.
Illinois and Tennessee gave us a game of thrills and chills in the Music City Bowl. It came down to a game ending field goal. As time expired, Illinois kicked a 29-yard field goal to beat Tennessee, 30-28. Tennessee fans may be having second thoughts about coach Josh Heupel. Last year, the Vols were blown out of the playoff, 42-17, by Ohio State. This season, the Vols (8-5) only played five good teams. They lost to all five of those teams. Except for East Tennessee State, Tennessee’s wins came against teams with a losing record. This was Heupel’s fifth season with the Vols.
The final game on Tuesday was a good one too. It also involved a clock-expiring field goal. TCU kicked a 27-yard field goal as time expired in regulation to tie USC, 24-24. In overtime, TCU beat USC 30-24 (OT).
New Year’s Eve Day began with the ReliaQuest Bowl in Tampa. Although Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia had a good game, his Commodores didn’t. Iowa got the best of Vanderbilt, 34-27.
Duke had an unbelievable ending to its season. Four weeks ago, the Dookies surprised everyone, winning the ACC championship game, beating Virginia. Yesterday, the Dookies won the Sun Bowl. In a wild game, Duke scored late to beat Arizona State, 42-39.
At preseason, Texas quarterback Arch Manning was listed as a strong candidate to win the Heisman Trophy. That turned out to be hyperbole. Yesterday, in the Citrus Bowl, Manning played like a Heisman Trophy winner. Perhaps that is an omen for next year. After struggling with Michigan for three quarters, Texas pulled away from the Wolverines in the fourth quarter. The Longhorns beat Michigan, 41-27.
Princess Gator and Gator Babe attended the Citrus bowl in Orlando. They were cheering for the Longhorns.
Michigan’s interim coach was Biff Poggi. He looked like Biff Piggy. I called him Miff Piggy.
I think Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has a lot of work to do during the offseason. In the Las Vegas Bowl, Utah shattered Nebraska, 44-22. Let’s face it, Nebraska is a volleyball and basketball school, not a football school.
In the first of four CFP quarterfinal games, the unexpected happened. Miami defied all odds. The Canes upset Ohio State, 24-14, in the Cotton Bowl Classic. Miami took the lead in the first quarter and never trailed for the remainder of the game. But it got oh so close in the second half.
Until today, the CFP quarterfinals consisted of three SEC teams, three Big Ten teams, one Big 12 team and one ACC team. Now there are only two Big Ten teams. The one ACC team – Miami – is on its way to the semifinals. Who will join Miami in the semifinals – Texas Tech or Oregon? Alabama or Indiana? Ole Miss or Georgia? You don’t have to stay tuned for long. We’ll know tonight.
Through the bowl season, speculation had been circulating that Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman might be leaving college football for the NFL. Apparently several NFL teams were interested in him. Freeman had been rather coy and quiet about the rumors, creating speculation as to what he might do. The rumors were shut down on Monday, when Freeman made it official that he was staying at Notre Dame.
He’s been just about everywhere – here, there and back again. Bobby Petrino has nothing on him. Veteran coach and offensive coordinator Chip Kelly was hired by Northwestern to be the school’s new offensive coordinator. Kelly is a two-time head coach with Oregon (2009-2012) and UCLA (2018-2023), a two-time NFL head coach with Philadelphia (2013-2015) and San Francisco (2016). He won a national championship as the offensive coordinator at Ohio State in 2024. He was New Hampshire’s offensive coordinator from 1999-2006. Kelly was Oregon’s offensive coordinator from 2007-2008. Kelly spent this past season as the offensive coordinator for the Las Vegas Raiders until he was fired on November 23.
“And a Happy New Year
Let’s hope it’s a good one
Without any fear”
Happy New Year!
Touchdown Tom
January 1, 2026
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Review of the Previous Eight Bowl Games
The App was hacked – (in the Birmingham Bowl) – Georgia Southern 29, Appalachian State 10 (Touchdown Tom said: Georgia Southern 28, Appalachian State 27). Georgia Southern went up 7-0 at the 8:23 mark in the first quarter. The Eagles never relinquished their lead for the remainder of the game. By the 8:50 mark in the third quarter, the Eagles were winning 26-7. Georgia Southern running back O.J. Arnold ran for 152 yards. Georgia Southern won the game on its running (242 yards) and App State’s turnovers (4). During the regular season, Georgia Southern beat App State, 25-23. Attendance in Birmingham: 12,092
Bulldogs do the coasting – (in the Independence Bowl) – Louisiana Tech 23, Coastal Carolina 14 (Touchdown Tom said: Louisiana Tech 31, Coastal Carolina 24). Coastal Carolina got off to a good start. The Chanticleers led Louisiana Tech, 14-3, at halftime. Then it was all La Tech in the second half. The Bulldogs scored 20 points. The Chanticleers scored no points. La Tech quarterback Trey Kukuk only passed for 114 yards, but he ran for 121 yards. Kukuk had one touchdown passing. The game was marred with turnovers and penalties. There were seven turnovers and 25 penalties. A lot of Group of Five teams seem to lack discipline and character. Attendance in Shreveport: 30,298.
Heupel’s folly – (in the Music City Bowl) – Illinois 30, Tennessee 28 (Touchdown Tom said: Tennessee 33, Illinois 29). Tennessee scored first and went up 7-0 in the first quarter. Then Illinois scored 17 unanswered points. Early in the third quarter, the Banned Indian led the Vols, 17-7. Tennessee closed the gap to three points – 17-14. Five minutes later, Illinois extended its lead to 24-14. With about five minutes to go in the fourth quarter and following an Illinois field goal that put the Banned Indians up 27-21, Tennessee’s Joakim Dodson returned the kickoff 94 yards for a touchdown. The Vols led 28-27. But the fat lady hadn’t sung. As time expired, Illinois kicked a field goal to win the game. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer passed for 196 yards and one touchdown. Illinois dominated the game – more first downs (27-18), more total yards (417 to 278), more passing yards (196 to 121), more rushing yards (221 to 157), and an 11-minute edge in time of possession. Attendance in Nashville: 52,815
Riley flops again – (in the Alamo Bowl) – TCU 30, USC 27 (OT) (Touchdown Tom said: USC 33, TCU 26). USC coach Lincoln Riley is a lot like Tennessee’s Josh Heupel. He never can get the job done or complete the job. After three quarters, the lead in the game had changed hands four times. USC led , 21-14. The Trojans extended their lead to 24-14. Then USC’s defense totally collapsed. TCU scored 10 points in the final four minutes. At the end of regulation, the score was tied 24-24. In the overtime, USC kicked a field goal, but TCU scored a touchdown. TCU backup quarterback Ken Seals passed for 258 yards and one touchdown. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava threw two interceptions. USC receiver Tanook Hines had six catches for 163 yards. The two teams were pretty even in the stats. There were 17 penalties in the game – 10 on USC. Attendance in San Antonio: 54,751
Commodores take charge – (in the ReliaQuest Bowl) – Iowa 34, Vanderbilt 27 (Touchdown Tom said: Vanderbilt 27, Iowa 23). Vanderbilt began its descent with Diego Pavia’s post Heisman ceremony comment on social media. The Commodores descent continued at the ReliaQuest Bowl. I suppose it was justice. Iowa took a 7-0 lead early in the first quarter and never relinquished the lead for the remainder of the game. Iowa’s biggest lead was 21-3 in the middle of the third quarter. Vandy could get no closer than seven points. Iowa quarterback Mark Gronowski was 16-22-1, passing for 212 yards and two touchdowns. He ran for 54 yards and another touchdown. Iowa receiver D.J. Vonnahme had 7 catches for 146 yards. Pavia was 25-38-0, passing for 347 yards and two touchdowns. He rushed for 36 yards and another touchdown. Vandy was limited to 51 yards rushing. Attendance in Tampa: 35,382
Unbelievable Dookies – (in the Sun Bowl) – Duke 42, Arizona State 39 (Touchdown Tom said: Arizona State 27, Duke 25). In the first half, there were three ties – 7-7, 14-14 and 21-21. It was that kind of game. In the second half, Duke led, Arizona State led, then Duke won. Duke’s winning touchdown came with 2:10 on the clock in the fourth quarter. It was a 17-yard pass from Darian Mensah to Que Sean Brown. Mensah passed for 327 yards and four touchdowns. Running back Nate Sheppard rushed for 170 yards and one touchdown. Receiver Brown had 10 receptions for 178 yards and two touchdowns. Arizona State quarterback Jeff Sims passed for 375 yards and three touchdowns. Sims rushed for 70 yards and two more touchdowns. The teams combined for 1,158 total yards. Arizona State dominated the stats but suffered three turnovers. Duke had a 7-minute edge in time of possession. Attendance in El Paso: 44,975
Bevo was happy – (in the Citrus Bowl) – Texas 41, Michigan 27 (Touchdown Tom said: Texas 27, Michigan 24). Michigan took a 10-3 lead at the 3:15 mark in the first quarter. The Wolverines held the lead until the 5:38 mark of the third quarter when Texas went up 24-20. It was Texas’ first lead since early in the first quarter when the Longhorns led 3-0. Michigan retook the lead 27-24 early in the fourth quarter. Four minutes later, Texas went back up 31-27 and the Longhorns went on a run. Texas quarterback Arh Manning passed for 221 yards and two touchdowns. More impressively, Manning ran for 155 yards and two more touchdowns. Texas dominated with more first downs (24 to 19), more total yards (456 to 373), more passing yards (221 to 199), more rushing yards (235 to 174). Michigan had a 7-minute edge in time of possession. Michigan also had three turnovers. All three were interceptions thrown by Wolverines quarterback Bryce Underwood. Attendance in Orlando: 47,316
The Corn wasn’t popping – (in the Las Vegas Bowl) – Utah 44, Nebraska 22 (Touchdown Tom said: Utah 30, Nebraska 24). For the first 20 minutes of the game, this was a tossup. The score was 7-7 midway through the first quarter and 14-14 early in the second quarter. Then Utah turned it on and led 24-14 at halftime. The Utes really turned it on in the second half, scoring 20 unanswered points. Utah led 44-14 at the 8:16 mark in the fourth quarter. It was all over but the shouting. Utah quarterback Devon Dampier passed for 310 yards and two touchdowns. Dampier also ran for 148 yards, scoring three more touchdowns. Utah receiver Dallen Bentley had 6 catches for 106 yards. The Utes dominated the game with more first downs (26 to 17), more total yards (535 to 343), more passing yards (310 to 182) and more rushing yards (225 to 161). Attendance in Las Vegas: 38,879
Last Previous Bowl Game Picks: 4 winners, 4 fumbles (50 percent)
Total Bowl Game Picks To Date: 18 winners, 13 fumbles (58.1 percent)
Review of the College Football Playoff (Quarterfinals)
It was The Miami – (in the Cotton Bowl Classic) – Miami 24, Ohio State 14 (Touchdown Tom said: Ohio State 26, Miami 19). Miami had all the momentum in the first half. The Canes led at halftime, 14-0. But little-by-little, the momentum began to change in the second half. At the 8:10 mark in the third quarter, the score was 14-7. At the 13:28 mark in the fourth quarter, Ohio State trailed by only 3 points – 17-14. Here come the Buckeyes. But Miami was resuscitated. The Canes still had some life left in them. Miami held off the Ohio State challenges. The Canes offense was clicking again. Finally, with just 0:55 on the clock, Miami scored its final touchdown. That was the ballgame. Miami’s Mark Fletcher ran for 90 yards. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin passed for 287 yards and one touchdown. But Sayin threw two interceptions. Buckeyes receiver Jeremiah Smith had 7 catches for 157 yards. Ohio State was the better passing team. Miami was the better running team. Ohio State only had 51 yards rushing. Miami had a 7-minute edge in time of possession. Miami will next play the winner of the Ole Miss-Georgia game in the Fiesta Bowl on January 8. Attendance in Arlington: 71,323
Quarterfinal CFP Pick: 0 winners, 1 fumble
Total CFP Picks: 3 winners, 2 fumbles
Superlatives
Impressive Passers
Arizona State’s Jeff Sims – 27-38-1-375 (3TDs); Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia – 25-38-0-347 (2TDs);
Impressive Rushers
Duke’ Nate Sheppard – 170 yards (1TD); Texas’ Arch Manning – 155 yards (2TDs); Georgia Southern’s O.J. Arnold – 152 yards; Utah’s Devon Dampier – 148 yards (3TDs);
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for the Final Four Bowl Games
and Three College Football Playoff Games
Rice (5-7) vs. Texas State (6-6) – (AC vs. Sun Belt) – Armed Forces Bowl (Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas) – 1 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – Rice is the next to worst passing team in the country – 98 yards per game. Yet, the Owls are the 14th best rushing team in the country – 213 yards per game. Overall on defense, Rice is very weak. Texas State enters the contest on a three-game winning streak. The Bobcats excel on offense. That doesn’t bode well for Rice. Quarterback Brad Jackson passed for 3,050 yards. Running back Lincoln Pare rushed for 1,022 yards. Receiver Beau Sparks had 80 catches for 1,113 yards. That’s a pretty talented threesome. The Texas State offense is equally strong at passing and running. Texas State’s problem – their defense. The Bobcats are about as bad as Rice on defense. The Bobcats don’t give two hoots for the Owls – Texas State 34, Rice 25.
Navy (10-2) vs. Cincinnati (7-5) – (AC vs. Big 12) – Liberty Bowl (Liberty Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee) – 4:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – At 10-2, Navy had a great season. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath was the team’s top passer and runner. Horvath passed for 1,472 yards (that’s a lot for Navy) and rushed for 1,147 yards. As Horvath goes, so goes Navy. His favorite target was slotback Eli Heidenreich. He had 46 catches for 877 yards. Navy was the No. 1 running team in the country – 289 yards a game. The Middies generally don’t have any problem scoring. But their defense is porous. Cincinnati is hurting. The Bearcats come into the game on a four-game losing streak. Even worse for Cincinnati, quarterback Brendan Sorsby has opted out of the game. So the Bearcats’ offense is a question mark. Cincinnati’s defense is like Navy’s. It can be porous too. The Middies give up the ship – Cincinnati 30, Navy 25.
Arizona (9-3) vs. SMU (8-4) – (Big 12 vs. ACC) – Holiday Bowl (Snapdragon Stadium – San Diego, California) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – Arizona had an amazing season. The Wildcats enter the contest on a five-game winning streak. The Arizona offense is led by quarterback Noah Fifita. He passed for 2,963 yards and 26 touchdowns. His favorite receiver is Kris Hutson. He had 57 catches for 740 yards. The Wildcats also play good defense. SMU came close to having a better season. Three of the Mustangs’ losses were by a combined 7 points. The fourth loss was by 11 points. The SMU offense is led by quarterback Kevin Jennings. He passed for 3,363 yards and 26 touchdowns. The Mustangs don’t have a strong running game. The SMU defense is generally adequate. The Wildcats pin a loss on the Ponies – Arizona 27, SMU 24.
Wake Forest (8-4) vs. Mississippi State (5-7) – (ACC vs. SEC) – Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Bank of America Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina) – 8 pm ET, Friday, ESPN) – Wake forest had a crazy season. Picked to finish at or near the bottom of the ACC, the Demon Deacons finished near the top. The Deacons had good wins over SMU and Virginia. The strength of the offense is running back Demond Claiborne. He rushed for 907 yards. Quarterback Robby Ashford isn’t bad. He passed for 2,169 yards. On offense and defense, you never know which Wake Forest will show up – the good one or the bad one. Mississippi State only won one SEC game this season. That win was against Arkansas, who didn’t win any SEC games. The Bulldogs come into this game on a three-game losing streak. Miss State has a good receiver in Brenen Thompson. He caught 53 passes for 948 yards. The Bulldogs can score, but their defense is one of the worst in the country. The Deacons baptize the Bulldogs – Wake Forest 28, Mississippi State 26.
Oregon (12-1) vs. Texas Tech (12 -1) – (Big Ten vs. Big 12) – College Football Playoff, Quarterfinal – Orange Bowl (Hard Rock Stadium – Miami Gardens, Florida) – 12 noon ET, Thursday, ESPN – It seems strange that these two western teams were assigned to the Orange Bowl. You can’t get much further East than Miami. This is Oregon’s second-straight season in the CFP. Last year, the Ducks were brutally eliminated by Ohio State. Oregon enters the game on a six-game winning streak. The Ducks’ offense is led by quarterback Dante Moore. He passed for 3,046 yards and 28 touchdowns. Oregon has a balanced passing and running attack. The Ducks are good on both offense and defense – one of the best in the country in both. Texas Tech’s one miscue during the season was a four-point loss to Arizona State that came about halfway through the season. Otherwise, the Red Raiders were perfect. Other than Arizona State, no one came close to Texas Tech. The Red Raiders won their games by an average of 32 points. The Tech offense is led by quarterback Behren Morton. He passed for 2,643 yards and 22 touchdowns. Running back Cameron Dickey rushed for 1,095 yards and 14 touchdowns. Receiver Caleb Douglas had 54 catches for 846 yards. The Raiders serve up Duck Confit – Texas Tech 29, Oregon 27.
Alabama (11-3) vs. Indiana (13-0) – (SEC vs. Big Ten) – College Football Playoff, Quarterfinal – Rose Bowl (Rose Bowl – Pasadena, California) – 4 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – It looks like it is going to be rainy, maybe stormy, weather during the Rose Bowl. I don’t know if the wet weather will hurt Alabama or Indiana more. It’s unusual, because generally weather conditions are always ideal for the Rose Bowl. The wet weather adds to the intrigue. Alabama has a great passing game and a not so great running game. But overall, the Tide has a good offense. The defense isn’t bad either. Indiana had a perfect season. The Hoosiers averaged beating their opponents by 31 points. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza passed for 2,980 yards and 33 touchdowns. Running back Roman Hemby ran for 918 yards. Receiver Omar Cooper had 58 catches for 804 yards. The Hoosiers have a balanced attack – passing and running. Their defense is the second best in the country. Hoosiers turn the Tide – Indiana 28, Alabama 21.
Ole Miss (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – College Football Playoff, Quarterfinal – Sugar Bowl (Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana) – 8 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – Ole Miss will be playing under new head coach Pete Golding. Golding was the team’s defensive coordinator. The Magnolias come into the game on a five-game winning streak. They are the third-best passing team in the country. The Ole miss defense is good but can be leaky at times. This game is a rematch. During the season, Ole Miss lost to Georgia, 43-35. That was on October 18. Georgia enters the contest on an impressive nine-game winning streak. The Bark Boys’ offense is led by Gunner Stockton. He passed for 2,691 yards and 23 touchdowns. Georgia has a balanced attack but leans more on the passing game. The Georgia defense is one of the best. It’s a Dawg Park – Georgia 28, Ole Miss 26.
Division III Championship
Wisconsin-River Falls (13-1) vs. North Central (14-0) – (Hall of Fame Stadium – Canton, Ohio) – 8 pm ET, Sunday, ESPN….
Quotes of the Week
“You probably know more about the mystique than they do. Our guys just know what they see on tape,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, on the Alabama mystique.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 19 Results – will be posted Monday morning, January 5.
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