CFW Week 11 Forecast – Power 4 teams no longer need a conference?
It’s a playoff buster week, for sure
This isn’t a blockbuster week. However, it is a playoff buster week. Several of the losers of the week’s Top 10 games will be busted out of the playoff.
There is also good balance this week among the Top 10 games – three encounters in each the Big Ten and Big 12, and two encounters in both the SEC and ACC.
The excitement begins with the Game of the Week – No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana. The Trojans still have a shot at making the playoff. However, if they lose to the Hoosiers, USC is kaput. No playoff for the Trojans. Indiana has to be sweating bullets too. The Hoosiers didn’t play last week and fell five spots in the CFP rankings. Indiana’s offense has only scored one touchdown in the Hoosiers last two games.
The Runner-Up Game is No. 2 Utah at No. 23 Arizona. Win or lose, the Utes are still in good shape. Lose and Arizona is kaput. The Wildcats have to win out to keep their hopes alive.
Then we have the two SEC games in this week’s Top 10. The first of the two is No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia. This is much like the Arizona-Utah encounter. If Missouri loses, the Tigers are eliminated from contention. If Georgia loses, the Dawgs are still in the hunt. But chances are, Georgia won’t lose.
Then we have a good one – a real good one – No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU. Could the Tigers possibly lose two in a row in Baton Rouge? If they do, Death Valley will be the death of LSU. Texas can lose and remain in the running for the playoff.
Now the ACC enters the fray with unranked Duke at No. 7 Miami. Should Duke win out, the Dookies will be in the picture. A second loss for Miami could be detrimental to the Canes. They fell seven spots in the CFP rankings after the loss to Notre Dame.
Back to the Big Ten, we have unranked Illinois at No. 4 UCLA. Illinois has to win to remain in contention. UCLA can lose and still be a playoff team.
Up next, we have a really interesting game in the ACC – No. 13 Wake Forest at unranked SMU. This game could go either way. A loss will destroy the playoff hopes for both teams. A win and they are very much in the picture.
The #8 and #9 games of the week are both Big 12 affairs. The first of the two is No. 12 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State. Both teams have to win or its is curtains for the two of them. The other Big 12 matchup is unranked Baylor at No.10 BYU. Baylor is the least likely of any of these teams to make the playoff. However, should the Bears win out, it is possible. BYU needs a win here or the Cougars are in trouble. I think it is safe to call this one for BYU.
And finally, we have unranked Northwestern at No. 20 Ohio State. Both of these teams need to win out to get back into the picture. And even then it could be tough.
Like I said, it will be a playoff buster weekend.
There are five more interesting and curious games to keep an eye on this weekend. They are North Texas (7-2) at UTSA (7-2), Arizona State (5-4) at UCF (5-4), Ole Miss (6-3) at Oklahoma (5-4), Louisville (6-3) at North Carolina (5-4) and Memphis (7-2) at South Florida (6-3).
The College Football Playoff management committee made it official. The committee unanimously approved the expansion to a 24-team playoff, effective next season. What a mistake! ESPN has been contracted to broadcast all the playoff games through the 2031 season. And of course after this year there will be no more Power Four Conference Championship games. The bowl games will cease to be of any value.
Now that the 24-team playoff is official, Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz and Wake Forest coach Jake Dickert bring up a good point. Drinkwitz and Dickert both believe that with a 24-team playoff it is no longer necessary for the Power Four football teams to belong to a conference.
Drinkwitz says, “My question is why are we associated with conferences anymore if we are not playing for a conference championship? If the point now is just to be playing into a sea of 24, are we just doing it for scheduling affiliation? If we are just doing it for scheduling affiliation, is there a reason to be flying all the way across the country to play games from a national perspective?
Dickert adds “To not say we are going to have conference champions, why do we have conferences
The Power Four teams are no longer playing for a conference championship. They are playing to make the playoff. Remember the conference championship games cease to exist with the onset of the 24-team playoff. The two coaches say that basketball and the other sports should continue in conference play. But the football teams should become Independents.
I agree. I also have pushed for relegation in college football and maybe this would be a first step in getting there.
Currently, the Group of Six conferences will maintain their conference championship games. But several athletic directors are proposing a separate college football playoff for the Group of Six teams – with the caveat that any Group of Six team that finishes in the Top 24 of the CFP rankings would still play in the current CFP. Stay tuned! Again, we need relegation.
The coordinator firings continue in the Big Ten. Ohio State coach Ryan Day fired his special teams coordinator Robby Discher. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech coach Brent Key fired his defensive coordinator Jason Semore.
Do you think Florida coach Jon Sumrall is afraid of his own shadow? This week, Florida canceled a home-and-home series with Notre Dame that was to take place during the 2031 and 2032 seasons. This after SEC commissioner Greg Sankey encouraged SEC teams to schedule Notre Dame more often. Notre Dame replaced Florida with a home-and-home series against Washington.
The Top 12 teams in this week’s CFP Rankings are 1. Georgia (8-1), 2. Utah (9-0), 3. Alabama (7-2), 4. UCLA (9-0), 5. Notre Dame (8-1), 6. Texas (7-2), 7. Miami (8-1), 8. Tennessee (7-2), 9. Indiana (8-1), 10. BYU (7-2), 11. Kentucky (7-2) and 12. Texas Tech (8-1). At No. 24, Boise State is the highest-ranked Group of Six team. If the playoff was to begin today, Boise State would replace Texas Tech as the 12th-seed team.
The Top 12 teams in this week’s FCS Coaches Top 20 Poll are 1. Tarleton State (10-0), 2. Montana State (9-1), 3. Youngstown State (8-2), 4. South Dakota State (8-2), 5. Northern Arizona (8-2), 6. Austin Peay (8-2), 7. Stephen F. Austin (9-1), 8. Lamar (8-2), 9. Tennessee Tech (9-1), 10. South Dakota (7-3), 11. Mercer (8-2) and 12. Montana (7-3).
This week’s Saturday morning pregame shows: ESPN’s College GameDay is in Boise, Idaho, for the Oregon State-Boise State game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Tucson, Arizona, for the Utah-Arizona game. SECN’s SEC Nation is in Athens, Georgia, for the Missouri-Georgia game.
Swamp Mama and I are having dinner tonight with Bootsie and Rockledge Gator.
Enjoy your weekend. It’s truly going to feel like football weather in east-central Florida.
Touchdown Tom
November 12, 2026
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Twelve’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. #18 USC (7-2) at #9 Indiana (8-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – USC has a good win over Ohio State. The Trojans need another big win. This is their opportunity. However, it is a challenging opportunity. Beating Indiana in Bloomington won’t be an easy task. To USC’s advantage, the Hoosier offense has been suffering. It is not as prolific this season. But the Hoosier defense is stronger than ever. So far, Curt Cignetti has not named a starting quarterback for the game. It may be a game day decision. USC will be relying on Jayden Maiava. In Big Ten play, USC is 4-2. Indiana is 5-1. The Hoosiers become a Trojan horse – Indiana 24, USC 17.
RUNNER-UP: 2. #2 Utah (9-0) at #23 Arizona (7-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – Utah could well have a letdown following the Utes win over BYU. Even more daunting for the Utes, the game is in Tucson. The Wildcats will be fired up. Arizona quarterback Noah Fifita is having a good season. But so is Utah quarterback Devon Dampier. Arizona is 4-2 in Big 12 play. Utah is 6-0. Utes turn the Wildcats into Mildcats – Utah 30, Arizona 24.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. #22 Missouri (6-3) at #1 Georgia (8-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – This week it is Missouri’s turn to try and stop the Bulldog train. Ever since that strange loss to Auburn, Georgia’s momentum has been getting stronger and stronger. Mizzou will put up a fight. But the Tigers don’t have the guns to stop the Dawgs. Missouri is 3-3 in SEC play. Georgia is 6-1. Uga skins a Cat – Georgia 38, Missouri 19.
4. #6 Texas (7-2) at #21 LSU (6-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Both teams are fighting to stay in contention for the playoff. Right now, Texas is in good shape. LSU is on the outside looking in. Both teams had tough games last week. Texas won. LSU lost. How will the Tigers respond, coming off thar devastating loss to Alabama? LSU is 3-3 in SEC play. Texas is 4-2. Arch Manning could still jump back into Heisman contention. A win over LSU enhances his chances. Bevo gets after Kiffin – Texas 27, LSU 23.
5. Duke (7-2) at #7 Miami (8-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Duke could be catching Miami at a good time. It depends on how the Canes respond to their loss in South Bend last week. The Dookies will need to play a near perfect game. Quarterback Walker Eget and running back Nate Sheppard are capable of dominating the Miami defense. But can the Duke defense stop the Canes’ offense? Doubtful. Duke is 4-2 in ACC play. Miami is 6-0. The Devil doesn’t scare the Canes – Miami 30, Duke 21.
6. Illinois (6-3) at #4 UCLA (9-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 9 pm ET, Friday, FOX – UCLA can’t take Illinois for granted. If the Bruins do, the Banned Indians will surprise them. Illinois definitely has an adequate offense and defense. But UCLA is more than adequate. In fact, the Bruins have been adequately amazing. Illinois is 4-2 in Big Ten play. UCLA is 6-0. The Bruins remain perfect – UCLA 24, Illinois 14.
7. #13 Wake Forest (8-1) at SMU (7-2) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – This could be one of the better, if not the best, games of the week. Wake Forest has been one of the surprise teams of the season – surprisingly good. But the Demon Deacons will have their hands full against SMU, especially in Dallas. Both teams are good on offense. Both are so-so on defense. SMU is 5-2 in ACC play. Wake Forest is 5-1. Ponies hold a wake for the Deacons – SMU 24, Wake Forest 23.
8. #12 Texas Tech (8-1) at #25 Oklahoma State (6-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 9:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – I see an upset brewing here. Okie State has a potent offense with quarterback Drew Mestemaker and running back Caleb Hawkins. And Texas Tech doesn’t have the best defense. Tech has a good offense too. It will take advantage of the weak Okie State defense. Last week, West Virginia and Texas Tech combined for 101 points. Okie State and Texas Tech may exceed 101 in points scored. This could be a real shootout – a never ending shoot out. Okie State is 4-2 in Big 12 play. Texas Tech is 5-1. A surprise in Stillwater – Oklahoma State 31, Texas Tech 30.
9. Baylor (6-3) at #10 BYU (7-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – Since Baylor fired Dave Aranda on October 25, the Bears have won two-straight games. One was an impressive 41-9 win over UCF. So, the Bears appear to be a different team. They need to be a different team to beat BYU. Especially if they are going to beat BYU in Provo. The chances are slim. Not impossible. But slim. BYU needs to bounce back from the loss to Utah. I’m sure the Cougars will. Baylor and BYU are both 4-2 in Big 12 play. The Bears are looking bare – BYU 30, Baylor 17.
10. Northwestern (6-3) at #20 Ohio State (6-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – Ohio State has been in a funk. The Buckeyes have lost two-straight games. Of course the Buckeyes have been playing with a new quarterback. It’s obvious that Luke Fahey is no Julian Sayin. Fahey is only a freshman. But after two starts, he has to be getting better. Northwestern needs for Ohio State to still be in its funk. The Wildcats could pull off the upset. But not likely. Northwestern is 3-3 in Big Ten play. Ohio State is 4-2. Brutus bucks the trend – Ohio State 28, Northwestern 22.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
Nebraska (5-4) at Rutgers (2-7) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12:30 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – Nebraska has dropped four-straight games. All Big Ten games. Coach Matt Rhule got rid of his offensive coordinator. Meanwhile, Rutgers announced that coach Greg Schiano would not be fired. He will be retained for another season. Which team benefits the most? Nebraska with a new OC or Rutgers with the monkey off Schiano’s back? Surely the Huskers can beat Rutgers. Herbie turns out the Knights’ lights – Nebraska 28, Rutgers 14.
Kansas (3-6) at West Virginia (5-4) – (Big12 vs. Big 12) – 5:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPNU – Last week, WVU scored 48 points and lost. The Mounties had 582 total yards and lost. Who knows what WVU will do this week. It all depends on the defense. Even with a bad defense, WVU should win this game. The Jayhawks have been in some close contests. They lost to Arizona State by 7 points, lost to TCU by 6 points, lost to UCF by one point and beat Baylor by one point. This game may or may not be close, but WVU will score a lot of points. Mountaineers moonshine the Jayhawks – West Virginia 40, Kansas 27.
Florida (5-4) at #11 Kentucky (7-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 6:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Watching Florida play lately, you have to wonder how the Gators ever beat Ole Miss and Texas. Wonders never cease. I guess you could say that when the Gators are clicking on all cylinders, they are good. But often they don’t click on any cylinder. Then they aren’t good. Kentucky was rolling along pretty good until along came Tennessee. The Wildcats were missing a few cylinders against the Vols. Both teams need to bounce back. The Wildcats do – Kentucky 21, Florida 14.
Purdue (3-5) at #15 Iowa (7-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – The Boilers can redeem themselves if they can steam up and beat Iowa. That would be a shocker. Purdue hasn’t been able to put it together. When the offense is good, the defense is bad. When the defense is good, the offense is bad. Still, Iowa could stub its toe in this one. The Hawkeyes have been known to do that. Iowa has playoff hopes. Their hopes stay alive – Iowa 31, Purdue 17.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Memphis (7-2) at South Florida (6-3) – (AC vs. AC) – 8 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN….
Florida State (4-5) at Pitt (6-3) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7 pm ET, Friday, ESPN….
Grambling (4-5) at Bethune-Cookman (5-5) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 1 pm ET, Saturday….
Valparaiso (4-5) at Stetson (1-9) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, YouTube….
#1 (FCS) Tarleton State (10-0) at West Florida (4-4) – (UAC vs. UAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
FIU (4-5) at Delaware (4-5) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Mississippi Valley State (3-7) at Florida A&M (2-8) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Arizona State (5-4) at UCF (5-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2….
Florida Atlantic (6-3) at Tulsa (5-4) – (AC vs. AC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Quotes of the Week
“Lane Kiffin wants someone to blame for the LSU mess. Try the mirror. Kiffin can blame the LSU players, fans and media all he wants. But this circus is his creation, and the mess starts with him,” USA Today sports columnist Matt Hayes.
“Indiana got put on notice by the CFP. Ask Notre Dame how that goes,” USA Today sports columnist Blake Toppmeyer.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 11 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 16.
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