CFW Week 14 Forecast – Will Michigan make it 5 straight?
Family, friends, food and football,
as the regular season comes to an end
Greetings college football fans from Julington Creek Plantation in Fruit Cove, Florida. Every year, Thanksgiving brings me happiness and sadness. Happiness because Thanksgiving is an awesome week full of family, friends, food and football. Over the years, we have had so many Thanksgiving weeks with family and friends, while enjoying good food and lots of football games.
Sadness because Thanksgiving week is the final week of the regular season for college football. The 136 FBS teams play their final games this weekend. The 2025 season is over. Some teams will go on to play in conference championship games, bowl games and college football playoff games. For the other teams, the season is complete – it’s over.
For many years, Swamp Mama and I have had big gatherings of family and friends at our house for Thanksgiving dinner. One year, I think we had 20 guests. The past three years, Swamp Mama, Princess Gator, Gator Gabe and Gator Babe and I had Thanksgiving dinner over at Stephanie Stein’s house with her children Julia and David, our neighbors Dieter and Deb Gum, and various friends.
This year, the venue for our Thanksgiving dinner kept changing – Indialantic, Melbourne, Orlando. Finally last week, Princess Gator called and said I’m hosting Thanksgiving this year. Late yesterday morning, Swamp Mama and I headed north on I-95 to the Jacksonville/St. Augustine area. Here we are in Julington Creek Plantation in Fruit Cove. It’s a great spot for family, food, football and fun. But we’ll be missing and thinking about our friends this year.
The drive up I-95 was good. The traffic was light between Melbourne and Daytona Beach.
From Daytona Beach to just north of St. Augustine it was solid – all three lanes. But it kept moving. There were no slow-downs or stops.
College Football Week 14 (Thanksgiving Week) began on Tuesday night in Amherst, Massachusetts. In the first of two MACtion games, Bowling Green clobbered Massachusetts, 45-14. Poor UMass finished the season at 0-12 – the only winless team in FBS football.
In the second game, in Ypsilanti, Western Michigan downed Eastern Michigan, 31-21. EMU had 5 turnovers.
The Top-10 games this week are led by who other than – Ohio State (11-0) at Michigan (9-2). Will Ryan Day lose a fifth-straight game to the Wolverines? If so, how will Buckeye fans react? The Big Ten has a second game in the Top 10 this week – Oregon (10-1) at Washington (8-3). The Ducks looked awfully good against USC last week. Likewise, the Huskies against UCLA. Washington can be tough to beat in Seattle.
The SEC has three games in the Top 10 led by Texas A&M (11-0) at Texas (8-3). A Texas win could boost the Longhorns into the CFP. Arch Manning’s stage is set. Will he have an encore performance? Another big affair in the SEC is Vanderbilt (9-2) at Tennessee (8-3). Will Diego Pavia provide a Heisman-winning performance? Or will Joey Aguilar steal the show? Last up in the SEC is LSU (7-4) at Oklahoma (9-2). If the Sooners win, they are a lock for the CFP. Lose, and they are out of the CFP. Will LSU be a spoiler?
An interconference contest between the SEC and the ACC is among the top games of the week – Georgia (11-1) at Georgia Tech (9-2). Tech hasn’t played well recently, losing two of its last three games and struggling to win the third game. Should the Yellow Jackets beat the Dawgs, the only way they could make the CFP would be for both Miami and Virginia to lose. Georgia‘s last and only loss this season was to Alabama back on September 27.
The ACC has a key matchup with conference championship game implications – Miami (9-2) at Pitt (8-3). Miami needs some help, Pitt doesn’t. This is a stage for Carson Beck to showcase.
The Big 12 has a good one in the desert – Arizona (8-3) at Arizona State (8-3). These two teams are about as evenly matched as you can get. Both can be exciting on offense.
The last two games in the Top 10 this week are encounters in the Mountain West Conference and the American Conference. In the MWC, San Diego State (9-2) at New Mexico (8-3). New Mexico is typically the joke of the MWC. But first-year coach Jason Eck has done a heck of a job with the Lobos. And they have won five-straight games. But the Aztecs are always tough.
Finally, in the AC, Navy (8-2) at Memphis (8-3). The momentum is with Navy. The Middies can make the AC title game if they win. Memphis is playing for pride and revenge for last year’s 56-44 loss to Navy.
North Texas coach Eric Morris has been hired as the next coach at Oklahoma State. Morris has coached North Texas for three seasons with a record of 21-15. The Mean Green are currently 10-1 this season and ranked 21st in the AP Poll. They have a final game against Temple this weekend. Morris, 40, will finish out the season at North Texas.
South Carolina is taking the same route as Wisconsin, Maryland, Florida State and Baylor. Gamecocks athletic director Jeremiah Donati announced that coach Shane Beamer would be retained for the 2026 season. So that’s five coaches – Luke Fickell, Mike Locksley, Mike Norvell, Dave Aranda and Beamer who have been put on the alert for next season – produce or it’s over.
Colorado State hired Connecticut coach Jim Mora as its next coach. In four seasons at UConn, Mora had a 27-23 record, including 9-game winning seasons each of the past two years.
The Top-12 teams in this week’s CFP rankings are 1. Ohio State (11-0), 2. Indiana (11-0), 3. Texas A&M (11-0), 4. Georgia (10-1), 5. Texas Tech (10-1), 6. Oregon (10-1), 7. Ole Miss (10-1), 8. Oklahoma (9-2), 9. Notre Dame (9-2), 10. Alabama (9-2), 11. BYU (10-1) and 12. Miami (9-2). Tulane (9-2) is the highest-ranked Group of Five team at 24. In the playoff seedings, BYU would be removed, and Miami would move up to the No. 11 spot. Tulane would jump in as the 12th seed.
The Top-5 teams in this week’s FCS Coaches Poll are 1. North Dakota State (12-0), 2. Montana State (10-2), 3. Lehigh (12-0), 4. Montana (11-1) and 5. Tarleton State (11-1). Harvard (9-1) is 19th and Yale (8-2) is 21st. The FCS college football playoff begins this weekend.
Happy Thanksgiving!
Touchdown Tom
November 27, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Fourteen’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Ohio State (11-0) at Michigan (9-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FOX – The Buckeyes and the Wolverines meet for the 120th time on Saturday. They first met in 1897. Michigan leads the series 62-51-6 and has won the last four games. That four-game winning streak is likely to end this weekend. Ohio State simply has the better offense and better defense. On offense, Ohio State comes at you with quarterback Julian Sayin (2,832 passing yards, 27 touchdowns, only 4 interceptions). Running back Bo Jackson (835 rushing yards). And receiver Jeremiah Smith (69 catches for 902 yards). The Wolverines are potent on offense but not as powerful as the Buckeyes. Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood has passed for 2,166 yards. The Wolverines have been through a few running backs, losing a couple of them to injury. The current leading rusher is Jordan Marshall. Marshall has rushed for 871 yards. The Wolverines rely on their running game. Ohio State has the better defense. To Michigan’s advantage, the game is in Ann Arbor. That is about the only advantage the Wolverines have. Buckeyes end the streak – Ohio State 28, Michigan 20.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Texas A&M (11-0) at Texas (8-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Friday, ABC – The Aggies and the Longhorns meet for the 120th time on Friday. They first met in 1894. Texas leads the series 77-37-5 and has won the last two games. If Texas loses this game, the pressure is going to be on Steve Sarkisian. So much was expected from the Longhorns this season. Lose against A&M and it will be the fourth loss this season. The Aggies have a good passing attack led by quarterback Marcel Reed (2,752 passing yards, 25 touchdowns, with 8 interceptions). Reed’s top target is receiver K.C. Conception (52 catches for 829 yards). The Texas offense counters with Arch Manning (2,763 yards, 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions). Texas has been lacking a running game. The defenses are about equal. Bevo loses his horns – Texas A&M 30, Texas 27.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Georgia (10-1) at Georgia Tech (9-2) – (SEC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Friday, ABC – The Dawgs and the Yellow Jackets meet for the 119th time on Friday. They first met in 1893. Georgia leads the series 72-41-5 and has won the last 7 games. Georgia comes in on a 7-game winning streak. The Dawgs are driven by quarterback Gunner Stockton (2,465 passing yards, 19 touchdowns with 4 interceptions). Stockton has help from running back Nate Frazier (701 yards rushing) and receiver Zach Branch (63 catches for 638 yards). Georgia Tech has lost 2 of its last 3 games. The Jackets are led by quarterback Haynes King (2,519 passing yards). King is also the leading rusher (883 yards). He has more rushing touchdowns than passing touchdowns (15 to 12). King had a bad game against Pitt last week. Georgia has the better defense. Uga has strong bug spray – Georgia 30, Georgia Tech 27.
4. Vanderbilt (9-2) at Tennessee (8-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – The Commodores and the Vols meet for the 118th time on Saturday. They first met in 1892. Tennessee leads the series 79-33-5 and has won the last 4 games. Vandy comes in off an impressive win over Kentucky. The Commodores are all about quarterback Diego Pavia (2,924 passing yards, 26 touchdowns and 6 interceptions). Pavia is also the teams leading rusher (661 rushing yards and 8 touchdowns). Pavia’s favorite target is receiver Eli Stowers (57 catches for 705 yards). Tennessee counters with quarterback Joey Aguilar (3,145 yards passing with 23 touchdowns and 10 interceptions). Aguilar gets help from running back DeSean Bishop (886 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns). Tennessee’s top receiver is Chris Brazell (56 catches for 926 yards). The two teams are pretty equal on offense and defense. The Commodores spring a leak – Tennessee 33, Vanderbilt 31.
5. Oregon (10-1) at Washington (8-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – The Ducks and the Huskies will play for the 118th time on Saturday. They first met in 1900. Washington leads the series 63-49-5. They have split the last two games. Oregon enters the contest on a 5-game winning streak The Ducks are led by quarterback Dante Moore (2,447 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 6 interceptions). Oregon is a well-balanced team on offense – 243 yards passing and 229 yards rushing a game. Washington depends on the play of quarterback Demond Williams (2,721 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and 6 interceptions). Williams’ favorite target is receiver Denzel Boston (52 catches for 730 yards). It rains in Seattle – Oregon 30, Washington 27.
6. Miami (9-2) at Pitt (8-3) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – The Miami-Pitt game is not so much of a rivalry. The Canes and the Panthers will be playing for the 43rd time on Saturday. They first met in 1950. Miami leads the series 29-12-1. They split the last two meetings. Miami is led by its talented quarterback Carson Beck (2,805 passing yards with 22 touchdowns and 9 interceptions). Beck’s favorite target is receiver Malachi Toney (71 catches for 844 yards). Pitt quarterback Mason Heintschell took over a few games into the season. Both teams have sound offenses. Miami is much better on defense. The Panthers can’t get the sugar out of the Canes – Miami 30, Pitt 24.
7. LSU (7-4) at Oklahoma (9-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – The Tigers and the Sooners have only met 4 times. LSU’s biggest win and Oklahoma’s most humiliating defeat was in the College Football Playoff semifinal game in December 2019. LSU beat Oklahoma, 63-28. That’s when Joe Burrow quarterbacked LSU. The Tigers went on to win the national championship, beating Clemson. LSU could have used Burrow this year. Quarterback Garrett Nussmeier (1,927 passing yards) has been a disappointment. Oklahoma enters the game on a 3-game winning streak. The Sooners are led by quarterback John Mateer (2,260 passing yards). OU has a talented receiver in Isaiah Sategna (56 catches for 827 yards). The Sooners have no running game. The Sooners get revenge – Oklahoma 24, LSU 17.
8. Arizona (8-3) at Arizona State (8-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 9 pm ET, Friday, FOX – The Wildcats and the Sun Devils will play for the 98th time on Friday. They first met in 1899. Arizona leads the series 51-45-1. They have split the last two games. Arizona comes in on a 4-game winning streak. The Wildcats are led by quarterback Noah Fifita (2,677 passing yards). He has an excellent receiver in Kris Hutson (50 catches for 645 yards). Arizona State is on a new quarterback – Jeff Sims. Sims has played well. He is a talented runner. Sims is helped out by running back Raleek Brown (1,078 rushing yards). ASU has a top notch receiver too in Jordan Tyson (59 catches for 689 yards). Both teams are similar on defense. Arizona has the better offense. The Wildcats aren’t Deviled – Arizona 28, Arizona State 24.
9. San Diego State (9-2) at New Mexico (8-3) – (MWC vs. MWC) – 3:30 pm ET, Friday, CBSSN – We don’t often get a Mountain West Conference game in the “10 Best” but this should be a good one. Both teams have played much better this season than expected. New Mexico was supposed to finish last in the MWC. They are far from it. San Diego State is a strong running team and weak passing. Running back Lucky Sutton (1,127 rushing yards) has been dependable. New Mexico enters the game on a 5-game winning streak. The Lobos are led by quarterback Jack Layne (2,271 passing yards). His best target is receiver Keagan Johnson (54 catches for 693 yards). Both teams are fairly equal on offense. The Aztecs have the better defense. The Lobos keep their streak going – New Mexico 20, San Diego State 17.
10. Navy (8-2) at Memphis (8-3) – (AC vs. AC) – 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – These two teams had a wild game last year. Navy beat Memphis 56-44. And it was a good game two years ago. Memphis won 28-24. This should be another good one. Navy’s success depends on the success of quarterback Blake Horvath. He has rushed for 986 yards and 13 touchdowns. Horvath can pass too. He has a good target in receiver Eli Heidenreich (38 catches for 741 yards). Memphis is led by quarterback Brendon Lewis (2,395 yards passing). Lewis likes to connect with receiver Cortez Braham (59 catches for 824 yards). Both teams are similar on offense. Memphis is better on defense. The Middies get torpedoed – Memphis 31, Navy 28.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
Texas Tech (10-1) at West Virginia (4-7) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – Does it get cold in Lubbock? It’s going to be 35-36 degrees in Morgantown during this game. Maybe the Texas Tech players can’t handle the cold. That would be the only way West Virginia could win. Texas Tech is a monster on offense, averaging 43 points a game. The Red Raiders are driven by quarterback Behren Morton (2,118 passing yards), running back Cameron Dickey (944 rushing yards) and receiver Caleb Douglas (48 catches for 696 yards). The Tech defense is good too – holding opponents to 12 points a game. WVU just has to hope for the best. The Mountaineers are weak on offense and weak on defense. It doesn’t look good for the Mounties. Tech is headed for the Big 12 title game – Texas Tech 35, West Virginia 20.
Florida State (5-6) at Florida (3-8) – (ACC vs. SEC) – 4:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – The Seminoles and the Gators will play for the 69th time on Saturday. They first met in 1958. Florida leads the series 38-28-2. They have split the last two games. Between the 20s, Florida State can move the ball. The Noles have problems when they get into the red zone. FSU is led by quarterback Tommy Castellanos (2,520 passing yards). He is assisted by receiver Duce Robinson (53 catches for 1,021 yards). Florida has been hopeless on offense. The only spark has been running back Jordan Baugh (901 yards rushing). FSU is better on offense. The teams are about equal on defense. The Chief can’t find his horse – Florida 24, Florida State 23.
Iowa (7-4) at Nebraska (7-4) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Friday, CBS – The Hawkeyes and the Huskers will play for the 56th time on Friday. They first met in 1891. Nebraska leads the series 30-22-3. Iowa has won the last two games. The Hawkeyes don’t have splashy numbers, but they have won 7 games. Their passing offense is 131st in the country. Iowa’s best number is on defense. The Hawkeyes are 9th in the country in points allowed – 15. Often Iowa lets the defense create opportunities that their offense can take advantage of. Nebraska lost starting quarterback Dylan Raiola to injury a few games back. The Huskers are now led by quarterback T.J. Lateef. He has completed 70% of his passes. The Huskers’ best threat is generally running back Emmett Johnson (1,234 rushing yards). Nebraska is stronger on offense, but weaker on defense than Iowa. If I pick Nebraska, the Huskers will lose. So, I’ll pick Iowa. The Hawkeyes chase Herbie into a silo – Iowa 27, Nebraska 24.
Wake Forest (8-3)t at Duke (6-5) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN – The Demon Deacons and the Blue Devils will play for the 105th time on Saturday. They first met in 1889. Duke leads the series 61-41-2. Duke has won the last three games. Wake Forest comes in on a three game winning streak. The Deacons have been a real surprise team this season. They were supposed to finish at the bottom of the ACC. That didn’t happen. Running back Demond Claiborne has rushed for 849 yards. Wake has a decent defense but isn’t the strongest on offense. Duke, on the other hand, is strong on offense, averaging 33 points a game. The Dookies have quarterback Darian Mensah (3,182 yards passing with 26 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Duke also has running back Nate Sheppard (790 yards rushing), and receiver Cooper Barkate (55 catches for 895 yards). That’s a good threesome. Duke’s problem is defense – giving up 29 points a game. The Demons get the best of the Devils – Wake Forest 28, Duke 25.
Indiana (11-0) at Purdue (2-9) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Friday, NBC – The Hoosiers and the Boilermakers will play for the 127th time on Friday. They first met in 1891. Purdue leads the series 77-43-6. The teams have split the last two games. Indiana won last year, 66-0. That was embarrassing for Purdue. It could be similar to that this year. The Hoosiers are undefeated and No. 2 in the country. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza is a winner (2,641 yards passing with 30 touchdowns and five interceptions). Running back Roman Hemby has rushed for 714 yards. Receiver Omar Cooper (remember him from the Penn State game?) has 55 catches for 740 yards. The Hoosiers are averaging 43 points a game and holding opponents to 12 points a game. Purdue doesn’t come close to having numbers like that. The Boilers are winless in Big Ten play and on a 9-game losing streak. Quarterback Ryan Browne has passed for 1,915 yards. The Indiana defense is giving up 30 points a game. Can you hear the drums, Fernando? – Indiana 38, Purdue 17.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
East Carolina (7-4) at Florida Atlantic (4-7) – (AC vs. AC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
UCF (5-6) at BYU (10-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2….
FIU (6-5) at Sam Houston (2-9) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Newberry (10-1) at West Florida (10-1) – (South Atlantic vs. Gulf South) – (Division II Playoff Game – second round) – 2 pm ET, Saturday….
Rice (5-6) at South Florida (8-3) – (AC vs. AC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Quotes of the Week
“Oh yeah, 100%. I’m right here where I’m supposed to be. I love being here,” USC coach Lincoln Riley, when asked if he is staying with the Trojans.
“Is Auburn cursed to mediocrity, like Nebraska?” USA Today sports writer Blake Toppmeyer.
“We know that the opponent is different. We know what’s at stake,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day, on the upcoming Michigan game.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 14 Results – will be posted Monday morning, November 30.
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