CFW Week 12 Forecast – Horns-Dawgs, Sooners-Tide, Irish-Panthers
College football down to its final quarter
Only three weeks of regular season games remain to be played in the 2025 college football season. It’s just about all over but the shouting. The shouting being the conference championship games, the bowl games and the college football playoff games. But let’s enjoy the final three weeks while we can.
Each of the Power Four conferences, along with the Group of Five’s American Conference have a pair of games in the Top-10 Games of the Week this week. The outcome of all 10 of the games has a direct impact on conference championship games and a spot in the CFP.
The SEC has this week’s top-2 games, beginning with Texas (7-2) at Georgia (8-1). From an SEC perspective, neither team can afford to lose this game. Both have one loss in conference play, but Georgia has an advantage. The Dawgs are 6-1 in conference play, while the Longhorns are 4-1. After this week, Georgia’s final two games are non-conference affairs. After this week, Texas still has to play Arkansas and Texas A&M. I’d say Texas needs the win more than Georgia, especially from a CFP perspective.
The other top-2 game in the SEC is Oklahoma (7-2) at Alabama (8-1). From an SEC perspective, Alabama holds the advantage. The Crimson Tide are 6-0 in conference action, while the Sooners are 3-2. If Alabama loses, the Tide could still make it to the SEC title game. If Oklahoma loses, its curtains for the Sooners. I’d say Oklahoma needs the win more than Alabama, especially from a CFP perspective.
Heading up the best pair of games in the ACC is Notre Dame (7-2) at Pitt (7-2). Notre Dame is not in the ACC in football. The Irish are just a partner. Pitt is in the ACC. So, a loss to Notre Dame won’t hurt the Panthers’ chances of making the ACC title game. Pitt, 5-1 in ACC play, is currently tied with three other teams at the top of the ACC. However, should Notre Dame lose, the Irish can say goodbye to the CFP. I’d say Notre Dame needs the win more than Pitt.
Also, in the ACC, is an interesting and intriguing clash in Hard Rock Stadium – NC State (5-4) at Miami (7-2). NC State will be playing for pride. The Wolfpack are 2-3 in conference play. But the Wolfpack pride is strong. NC State knocked off undefeated Georgia Tech two weeks ago. And the Wolfpack had last week off to prepare for the Canes. Miami will be competing for a spot in the ACC title game and a spot in the CFP. I’d say Miami needs the win more than NC State. (I originally had Virginia at Duke in this spot. That was until last week when Virginia lost to Wake Forest and Duke lost to Connecticut.)
The best of the two games in the Big Ten is Iowa (6-3) at USC (7-2). Iowa suffered a tough loss last week – about as tough as you can suffer – 18-16 to Oregon. And on a closing-seconds field goal at that. Iowa is 4-2 in Big Ten play and 21st in the CFP rankings. USC is 5-1 in Big Ten play and 17th in the CFP rankings. Win or lose, I don’t think Iowa has much of a chance of playing in the Big Ten title game or making the CFP. Win and USC has a chance of playing in the Big Ten title game and making the CFP. I’d say USC needs the win more than Iowa.
The other top Big Ten affair is Minnesota (6-3) at Oregon (8-1). Like NC State, Minnesota will be playing for pride. The Gophers have very little hope of making the Big Ten title game, much less, the CFP. But they can still make a stand. Oregon probably won’t make the Big Ten title game. But the Ducks are in an excellent position to play in the CFP. However, a loss could hurt Oregon – especially when they still have to play USC and Washington. I’d say Oregon needs the win more than Minnesota.
The Big 12 has a couple of biggies. Best of the duo of games is TCU (6-3) at BYU (8-1). TCU is another of those teams, playing for pride. But the Horned Frogs can be dangerous. BYU, on the other hand, is 12th in the CFP rankings. And the Cougars just have one loss in Big 12 play. Only two other Big 12 teams have one loss in conference play – Texas Tech (6-1) and Cincinnati (5-1). BYU could be headed for a rematch against Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game. Regardless, the Cougars need the win to remain in CFP contention. I’d say BYU needs the win more than TCU.
The second top game in the Big 12 is Arizona (6-3) at Cincinnati (7-2). Arizona is playing for pride. But the Wildcats are a tough football team. Two of their three losses were by a total of 9 points – 3-point loss to Houston and a 6-point loss to BYU. However, Arizona has no chance of playing in the Big 12 title game and no chance of making the CFP. Cincinnati, on the other hand, has a chance of making both – the Big 12 title game and the CFP. But they’ll need to win the Big 12 title game to make the CFP. Currently the Bearcats are 25th in the CFP rankings. I’d say Cincinnati needs the win more than Arizona.
The final set of top games are from the American Conference. Both have impact on a Group of Five spot in the CFP. The first top AC encounter is South Florida (7-2) at Navy (7-2). Navy is 5-1 in AC play and South Florida is 4-1 in conference action. Both teams are still contenders for the AC title game. Both are contenders for the highest-ranked Group of Five spot in the CFP. South Florida currently holds that spot at 24th in the CFP rankings. I’d say no one team needs to win this game more than the other. It’s equally important to both.
And finally, in the AC, we have Memphis (8-2) at East Carolina (6-3). East Carolina, along with four other AC teams has just one loss in conference play. Memphis has two losses, but a better overall record at 8-2. Last week, Memphis was the top contender for the Group of Five CFP spot. But over the weekend, the Tigers lost to Tulane. They lost that spot to South Florida – a team Memphis beat earlier in the season. If Memphis can win out, the Tigers should be back in the saddle again. Lose and it’s curtains. East Carolina’s chances of making the CFP are slim – very slim. I’d say Memphis needs the win more than East Carolina.
I am curious and interested in the outcome of six other games this week. They are Virginia (8-2) at Duke (5-4). Both teams are still in the running in the ACC. Both teams collapsed last week. Which one will rebound this week?....North Carolina (4-5) at Wake Forest (6-3). All of a sudden Bill Belihick is winning ball games. Wake Forest has mostly been winning too. Who will win this game?....Penn State (3-6) at Michigan State (3-6). All right, something has to give. Both teams are winless in Big Ten play. One won’t be after Saturday.
Utah (7-2) at Baylor (5-4). Utah has CFP aspirations. Baylor can be tricky. Will Utah still be a CFP contender after Saturday?....Tennessee Tech (10-0) at Kentucky (4-5). An FCS team, Tennessee Tech is ranked 6th in the FCS Coaches Poll. How good are the Golden Eagles? Can they give Kentucky a run for its money?....Boise State (6-3) at San Diego State (7-2). Two decent MWC teams. Boise State has been a disappointment. San Diego State has been better than expected. Both teams have been up-and-down. Which one will be up this week?
College football Week 12 began Tuesday night with two MAC games. The first of the two was a wild one. Kent State outlasted Akron, 42-35 (OT). For two and a half quarters, the lead in the game went back-and-forth, changing hands five times. Then in the third and fourth quarters, Kent State scored 21 unanswered points to take a 35-17 lead. Not to be out done, Akron scored 18 unanswered in the final 11 minutes of the fourth quarter to tie the game at 35-35. In overtime, Kent State scored and Akron didn’t.
But how in the heck did Akron lose the game? The Zips had more first downs (33-13), more total yards (530-374), more passing yards (424-317), more rushing yards (106-57) and a 17-minute advantage in time of possession. Also, Akron’s Ben Finley passed for 424 yards and 3 touchdowns. Akron running back Jordan Gant ran for 96 yards and one touchdown. Akron receiver Marcel Williams had 14 catches for 206 yards and two touchdowns. Akron did have two turnovers, but Kent State had one turnover. Yes, how in the heck did Akron lose?
In the other game Tuesday night, Western Michigan won a tightly contested game against Ohio, 17-13. The lead in this game changed hands four times. Ohio led 7-3 at halftime. WMU led 10-7 at the end of three quarters.
College football Week 12 continued Wednesday night with three games – all in the MAC. Northern Illinois crushed Massachusetts, 45-3. At 0-10, UMass is the only winless team in FBS college football.
Toledo downed Miami (Ohio), 24-3, in a game marred by errors. There were six turnovers – three by each team. And finally, Central Michigan beat Buffalo, 38-19. Buffalo dominated the statistics, but the Bulls also dominated the turnovers with 5.
Florida State coach Mike Norvell said earlier this week that FSU was going to win a title in the near future. However, Norvell did not indicate how near in the future – two years, three years, four years? Nor did he indicate which title – ACC or National?
Based on this week’s CFP rankings, the 12 teams in the playoff would be 1. Ohio State (9-0), 2. Indiana (10-0), 3. Texas A&M (9-0), 4. Alabama (8-1), 5. Georgia (8-1), 6. Texas Tech (9-1), 7. Ole Miss (9-1), 8. Oregon (8-1), 9. Notre Dame (7-2), 10. Texas (7-2), 11. Miami (7-2) and 12. South Florida (7-2). Oklahoma (7-2) and BYU (8-1) finished 11th and 12th in the rankings, respectively. However, as things currently stand, the Sooners and the Cougars would be replaced in the playoff by 15th Miami (highest-ranked ACC team) and 24th South Florida (highest-ranked Group-of-Five team).
Obviously, with the Texas-Georgia, Oklahoma-Alabama. Notre Dame-Pitt and Iowa-USC games this week, along with other potential upsets, the rankings will go through a shakeup next week. Stay tuned!
In this week’s FCS Coaches Poll, the Top-5 teams are 1. North Dakota State (10-0), 2. Montana (10-0), 3. Montana State (8-2), 4. Lehigh (10-0) and 5. Tarleton State (9-1). Harvard (8-0) is 13th and Lafayette (7-3) is 25th. Lehigh, Harvard and Lafayette are non-athletic scholarship FCS programs.
West Florida (9-0) is 3rd in the Division II Coaches Poll.
This weekend, ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for the Notre Dame-Pitt game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will be at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois, for the Michigan-Northwestern game. SEC Network’s SEC Nation will be in Athens, Georgia, for the Texas-Georgia game. The ACC Network’s ACC Huddle will be in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, for the Notre Dame-Pitt game.
Former basketball player and basketball coach Lenny Wilkens died on November 9. Wilkens played college basketball (point guard) for Providence from 1957 to 1960. He then played (point guard) for four teams in the NBA for 16 years (1960-1975), mostly with the St. Louis Hawks (1960-1968). He coached six NBA teams for 37 years from 1969 to 2005. He is considered to be one of the 15 greatest coaches in NBA history. He won the NBA championship in 1979, coaching the Seattle Supersonics. He was the NBA Coach of the Year in 1984. A native of Brooklyn, New York, Leonard Randolph Wilkens was 88.
Touchdown Tom
November 13, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Twelve’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. #10 Texas (7-2) at #5 Georgia (8-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Both teams come into the game on winning streaks. Texas is riding a four-game winning streak. Georgia has a five-game winning streak going. Obviously, one of the streaks will come to an end. Texas’ two losses have been on the road – Ohio State and Florida. The Longhorns could use a big road win. It won’t be easy in Athens. Both teams are averaging around 31-32 points a game. Both are giving up around 18 points a game. Texas quarterback Arch Manning has passed for 2,123 yards (18 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). Lately, his play has been adequate. But he needs a big game against a big team. This is his opportunity. Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton has passed for 2,040 yards (15 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). Last year, Georgia beat Texas twice. Once during the season, 30-15, and in the SEC title game, 22-19 (OT). Make it three in a row for Uga – Georgia 24, Texas 23.
RUNNER-UP: 2. #11 Oklahoma (7-2) at #4 Alabama (8-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Both teams need to win, but Oklahoma needs the win more than Alabama. An OU loss would remove the Sooners from SEC title hopes and possibly from the CFP. Alabama is undefeated in SEC play. OU’s two losses are both against SEC competition – Texas and Ole Miss. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer has passed for 1,949 yards (8 touchdowns, 7 interceptions). Both teams are averaging around 31 points a game. Both are giving up around 15-16 points a game. Alabama enters the game on an 8-game winning streak. Tide quarterback Ty Simpson has passed for 2,461 yards (21 touchdowns, 1 interception). Simpson has been an accurate quarterback, and he is a Heisman Trophy contender. Bama has won 17-straight games at home. Make it 18 – Alabama 24, Oklahoma 21.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. #9 Notre Dame (7-2) at #22 Pitt (7-2) – (Ind vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Notre Dame enters on a 7-game winning streak. Pitt is riding a 5-game winning streak. Notre Dame can’t afford another loss. That would eliminate the Irish from the CFP. Pitt could lose and still get in the CFP, being the ACC champion. Notre Dame quarterback C.J. Carr has passed for 2,275 yards (19 touchdowns, 4 interceptions). Irish running back Jeremiyah Love has rushed for 988 yards (13 touchdowns). Pitt switched quarterbacks a few games ago. The Panthers new QB is Mason Heintschel. He has performed well. Both teams are averaging 39-40 points a game. Both are giving up around 20-21 points a game. The combination of Carr and Love is too much for the Panthers – Notre Dame 30, Pitt 25.
4. #21 Iowa (6-3) at #17 USC (7-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – Both teams are in contention for the CFP, but USC is in the better position of the two. Iowa’s chances are slim. Surprisingly, Iowa is averaging 30 points a game. Not surprising, Iowa is holding opponents to 14 points a game. On offense, Iowa is averaging 133 passing yards a game and 176 rushing yards a game. Not necessarily impressive numbers but the Hawkeyes get the job done. Iowa quarterback Mark Gronwski doesn’t have impressive numbers, but he’s a sleeper. Conversely, USC generally puts up big numbers. The Trojans are averaging 40 points a game and holding opponents to 22 points a game. USC quarterback Jayden Maiava has passed for 2,614 yards (17 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). Were the game played in Iowa City, the Hawkeyes would win. But the game is in Los Angeles, in the Coliseum. Tommy wins – USC 27, Iowa 23.
5. Minnesota (6-3) at #8 Oregon (8-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 9 pm ET, Friday, FOX – Minnesota is at the point where the Gophers are playing for a decent bowl game. There is little to no hope for the CFP. That still says the Gophers can be dangerous. However, Minnesota only averages 24 points a game, while giving up 22 points a game. Quarterback Drake Lindsey is okay but not spectacular. He’s only thrown 10 touchdown passes, with 6 interceptions. With games coming up against USC and at Washington, Oregon can’t afford to lose this one. Ducks quarterback Dante Moore has passed for 1,884 yards (19 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). Oregon averages 39 points a game, giving up 14 points a game. Last week, the Ducks escaped Iowa by 2 points, with a closing-seconds, 39-yard field goal. The Ducks could be a bit beat up and worn out from that encounter. Ducks do the quacking in this one – Oregon 33, Minnesota 20.
6. TCU (6-3) at #12 BYU (8-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 10:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – TCU is like Minnesota. The Horned Frogs are playing for fun and a good bowl game. BYU, on the other hand, stands a good chance to make the CFP. The Cougars just have to keep winning. TCU’s threat is quarterback Josh Hoover. He has passed for 2,690 yards (23 touchdowns, 8 interceptions). Both teams average 33 points a game on offense. The difference is on defense. TCU gives up 25 points a game. BYU holds opponents to 18 points a game. BYU quarterback Bear Bachmeier has passed for 1,181 yards (12 touchdowns, 4 interceptions). BYU lost its first game last week. The Cougars don’t lose this week – BYU 28, TCU 24.
7. Arizona (6-3) at #25 Cincinnati (7-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FS1 – Arizona and Cincinnati are both surprise teams this season. Both playing better than expected. Cincinnati only has one loss in Big 12 play. Arizona’s fortune has been driven by quarterback Noah Fifita. He has passed for 2,200 yards (23 touchdowns, 4 interceptions). Both Arizona and Cincinnati are averaging about 34-35 points a game. They are similar on defense too – giving up around 21 points a game. Cincinnati’s success is attributed to quarterback Brendan Sorsby. He has passed for 2,064 yards (21 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). Sorsby has been an accurate quarterback. Last week, Arizona should have lost to Kansas. But the Wildcats won. This week, Arizona should lose to Cincinnati, and the Wildcats will lose – Cincinnati 28, Arizona 27.
8. NC State (5-4) at #15 Miami (7-2) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – This could be a tough one for the Canes. NC State knocked off Georgia Tech a couple weeks ago. The Wolfpack have an offense. NC State’s problem is no defense. The Wolfpack are averaging 33 points a game, while giving up 31 points a game. The offense can attribute its success to quarterback C.J. Bailey. He has passed for 2,411 yards (19 touchdowns, 7 interceptions). Like NC State, Miami averages 33 points a game. The difference between the two teams is defense. Miami holds opponents to 15 points a game. Quarterback Carson Beck leads the offense. Beck has passed for 2,194 yards (15 touchdowns, 9 interceptions). Lately, Beck has thrown several interceptions. A loss will blow Miami’s chances for the CFP. A win and the Canes are in good shape. Canes grow to a Cat-5 – Miami 34, NC State 24.
9. #24 South Florida (7-2) at Navy (7-2) – (AC vs. AC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Right now, South Florida is in the CFP as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. Navy could change that. It all depends on the availability of Navy quarterback Blake Horvath. Horvath didn’t play last week due to an upper body injury. If he returns this week, Navy will make a game of it. If he doesn’t, South Florida will blow out Navy. Horvath is that good, mostly running. But for a Navy quarterback, he is a decent passer. South Florida is led by quarterback Byrum Brown for both passing and running. Brown has passed for 2,203 yards (19 touchdowns, 6 interceptions). He has rushed for 705 yards (9 touchdowns). South Florida averages 42 points a game on offense. Navy is about 10 points behind that. Both teams hold opponents to around 25-26 points a game. Navy springs a leak – South Florida 35, Navy 28.
10. Memphis (8-2) at East Carolina (6-3) – (AC vs. AC) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPNU – Memphis actually still has a shot of being the highest-ranked Group of Five team. But the Tigers can’t afford anymore slip ups. East Carolina is capable of causing Memphis to slip up. And the game is at East Carolina. Memphis will depend on the play of quarterback Brendan Lewis. He has passed for 2,186 yards (12 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). Memphis and East Carolina are averaging 35-36 points a game. They are holding opponents to 19 points a game. Both teams can score. Both can be careless on defense. The Pirates have a really good quarterback in Katin Houser. Houser has passed for 2,469 yards (14 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). This one could go either way. It goes the way of the Tigers – Memphis 27, East Carolina 24.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
West Virginia (4-6) at Arizona State (6-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, TNT – West Virginia has actually won two-straight games. The offense has started moving. The defense is still shaky. The Mounties are averaging 24 points a game, giving up 30 points a game. But the quarterback play has been improving with the emergence of Scotty Fox. Quarterback play has changed for Arizona State. Sam Leavitt is injured and will not play again this week. That may not be a bad thing. Two weeks ago, backup quarterback Jeff Sims ran for 228 yards. That could be scary for WVU. Last week, ASU was off, giving Sims more time to get adjusted to his newly starting role. Scotty doesn’t out Fox the Sun Devils – Arizona State 30, West Virginia 24.
Florida (3-6) at #7 Ole Miss (9-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Last year, Florida pulled a big-time and unexpected upset of Ole Miss – 24-17. Don’t look for that to happen this year. Florida is pathetic. Gator quarterback D.J. Lagway has thrown more interceptions than touchdowns. The Gators are only averaging 20 points a game, giving up 22 points a game. Ole Miss is on a roll and apparently heading for the CFP. They are averaging 38 points a game. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss has passed for 2,356 yards (13 touchdowns, 2 interceptions). Running back Kevin Lacy has run for 912 yards (16 touchdowns). After being benched last week, Lagway strangely is the designated starting quarterback for the Gators. That’s how bad things are for Florida. Interestingly, Florida could be losing this game to its future coach – Lane Kiffin. No swamps in Oxford – Ole Miss 30, Florida 19.
#19 Virginia (8-2) at Duke (5-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Last week, Virginia lost its quarterback Chandler Morris and thus Virginia lost its game to Wake Forest. Morris is not expected to be back this week. That’s an advantage for Duke. Virginia is averaging 34 points a game but only got 9 points last week without quarterback Morris. The Dookies can score, averaging 35 points a game. But the Dookies’ opponents can score too, averaging 29 points a game. Duke quarterback Darian Mensah has passed for 2,794 yards (24 touchdowns, 4 interceptions). Something tells me this is going to be a wild one. The Dookies are wilder – Duke 31, Virginia 30.
Purdue (2-8) at Washington (6-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – Purdue has now lost 8-straight games. It doesn’t look good for the Boilers this week. Purdue is only averaging 21 points a game, while giving up 28 points a game. Quarterback Ryan Browne has passed for 1,898 yards, with barely more touchdowns than interceptions – 9 to 8. The Boilers could be catching Washington at the wrong time. After getting upset by Wisconsin last week, the Huskies will be angry. Quarterback Demond Williams has passed for 2,251 yards (15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions). The Huskies are averaging 33 points a game. Make it a 9-game losing streak for the Boilers – Washington 30, Purdue 20.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Bethune-Cookman (5-5) at Jackson State (7-2) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 1 pm ET, Saturday….
Stetson (3-7) at Valparaiso (1-9) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Florida A&M (4-5) at Alabama A&M (4-6) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Valdosta State (5-4) at West Florida (9-0) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
UCF (4-5) at #6 Texas Tech (9-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX….
Florida Atlantic (4-6) at Tulane (7-2) – (AC vs. AC) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Liberty (4-5) at FIU (4-5) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 5 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Virginia Tech (3-6) at Florida State (4-5) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….
Quotes of the Week
“Florida State isn’t a football team right now. It’s a collection of lost souls wearing the same jersey. There’s no identity, no discipline, no leadership. It’s not just bad football, it’s embarrassing. They’ve got nothing left in the tank,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum.
“Dabo Swinney could leave Clemson for an SEC program. Arkansas,” college football insider Steven Godfrey.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
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