Week 15 Forecast – Who’s in? Who’s out?
The puzzle comes together this weekend
We’re down to the final weekend. This is the weekend that all the conference teams have been playing for – to play in their conference championship game. Only two teams from each conference made it. Some just barely, but they made it.
The outcome of these conference title games will determine the positioning of the teams in the final rankings of the College Football Playoff. The final rankings will be announced Sunday afternoon on ESPN. And, of course, the positioning of the teams in the rankings will determine the bracket for the 12-team playoff. Who plays who.
Already, a number of teams are pleading their case for being one of the 12 teams – SMU, Indiana, Alabama, Miami, Ole Miss and South Carolina. #8 SMU, #9 Indiana and #11 Alabama are hoping not to be dropped from the playoff group. #12 Miami, #13 Ole Miss and #14 South Carolina are arguing why they should be in the playoff group.
Of those six teams, only SMU plays this weekend. The Mustangs play Clemson in the ACC title game. Should SMU lose, the loss could knock them out of the playoff. Clemson would jump into the playoff group, as the champion of the ACC. However, if SMU loses and only falls to #10 or #11, then Indiana or Alabama could be shoved out. Oh, the angst!
Let’s take a look at the nine conference title games and the impact that each could have – or not have – on the playoff.
Heading the nine games is the Big Ten title game between #1 Oregon (12-0) and #3 Penn State (11-1). Obviously, if Oregon wins the Ducks will remain No. 1. Penn State would fall, but only drop two or three spots at the most. If Penn State wins, the Nittany Lions would move up one or two spots (depending on the Texas outcome). Penn State would also draw a first-round bye in the playoff as the Big Ten champ. Oregon would remain near the top of the pack.
The next biggest title game is the battle between #2 Texas (11-1) and #5 Georgia for the SEC championship. If Texas wins, the Longhorns will finish first or second in the rankings (depending on the Oregon outcome). Some think Georgia could fall out of the top 12 if the Dawgs lose. But probably not. They’ll take a big fall but should remain in the top 12. If Georgia beats Texas, the Dawgs will move up two or three spots. Georgia would also draw a first-round bye as champions of the SEC. Texas would remain near the top of the pack.
The third key game is the ACC contest between #8 SMU (11-1) and #17 Clemson (9-3). We briefly discussed this one previously. An SMU win would not only keep the Mustangs in the playoff, but also give them a first-round bye as champions of the ACC. However, if Clemson wins, the Tigers will not only jump into the 12-team playoff group, but also, draw a first-round bye as champions of the ACC. With a loss, SMU may or may not drop out of the top 12. That remains to be seen.
Another curious title game is the MWC contest between #10 Boise State (11-1) and #20 UNLV (10-2). A Boise State win could move the Broncos up a notch or two. And Boise State would draw a first-round bye. If UNLV wins, then the Rebels are in the playoff as the highest-ranked Group of Five team, assuming they would become the highest-ranked team. Army could ruin things for UNLV if the Cadets beat Tulane. We’ll discuss this later.
The Big 12 title game is an interesting one because neither of the teams – #15 Arizona State (10-2) vs. #16 Iowa State (10-2) are currently in the top 12. But the winner will be in the playoff as the Big 12 champion. Regardless of who wins – Arizona State or Iowa State – will the winner move ahead of Boise State in the rankings?
The AAC contest between #24 Army (10-1) and #28 Tulane (9-3) is the sixth and last of the nine title games that could have an impact on the playoff teams. In this case, a possible impact. The potential impact would only occur if Boise State loses to UNLV and Army beats Tulane. Could Army end up higher ranked than UNLV?
The remaining three conference championship games are all good ones. They just won’t have any impact on the playoff.
For starters, there is the Sun Belt Conference title game between Marshall (9-3) and #31 Louisiana (10-2). The best that could happen here is if Louisiana wins, the Ragin’ Cajuns could end up somewhere in the bottom of the Top 25 CFP rankings.
Then there is Ohio (9-3) against #35 Miami (8-4) for the MAC championship. This could actually be one of the better games this weekend. Then again, maybe not. Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke played for Ohio last year.
The last of the conference title games is Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. Jacksonville State (8-4). These two just met five days ago. What could possibly be different?
So, here we go – conference championship weekend. College football at its best. Three games from 7 pm to 11:30 pm ET, Friday, and six games from 12 noon to 11:30 pm ET, Saturday. Stock up!
All said and done, going into the weekend, no matter what happens, six teams – Oregon, Texas, Penn State, Notre Dame, Ohio State and Tennessee – are safe and secure in the playoff. The other six spots? Your guess is as good as mine. Who’s in and who’s out?
Who’s hired and who’s fired?
Thanksgiving Weekend, Florida State coach Mike Norvell hired UCF coach Gus Malzahn to be the Noles new offensive coordinator. Monday, Norvell hired Nebraska’s defensive coordinator Tony White to be the Noles new DC. Norvell fired his two coordinators a few weeks ago.
Appalachian State fired head football coach Shawn Clark on Monday. Finishing 5-6, App State suffered its first losing season since 2013. Completing his fifth season with the Little Mountaineers, Clark had an overall record of 40-24. App State became the 20th school (4 Power Four and 16 Group of Five) to fire or lose its coach this year.
Florida Atlantic hired Texas Tech offensive coordinator Zach Kittley as its next head coach. The 33-year-old Kittley is now the youngest head coach in the FBS.
Michigan coach Sherrone Moore fired his offensive coordinator Kirk Campbell on Tuesday.
Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy fired both his offensive and defensive coordinators. The Cowboys finished the season at 3-9 (0-9 in Big 12 play). Oklahoma State averaged 27 points a game on offense and gave up 36 points a game on defense.
Ball State hired Butler head coach Mike Uremovich as its next football coach. Uremovich, 48, coached Butler for three seasons with a 23-11 record. Prior to Butler, he coached at St. Francis (Illinois) for two years, where he had a 17-7 mark.
USC coach Lincoln Riley is fighting off rumors he is leaving the Trojans to replace Gus Malzahn at UCF. “I tell them I’m a USC Trojan. I’m at the place I want to be. I’m home,” Riley said. At Oklahoma in 2021, Riley was linked to the LSU job. But he told reporters after the Big 12 championship game that he would not be the next coach at LSU. The following day, Riley was named the head coach at USC.
College football coach Dana Dimel died on Tuesday. Dimel was the head coach of Wyoming (1997 to 1999), Houston (2000 to 2002) and UTEP (2018 to 2023). He compiled a career record of 50-88. Prior to his head coaching, Dimel was an offensive coordinator at Kansas State (1995 to 1996) and a tight ends coach at Arizona (2006 to 2008). This season, he was an offensive assistant for Bret Bielema at Illinois. A native of Columbus, Ohio, Dana August Dimel was 62.
Enjoy your football weekend!
Touchdown Tom
December 5, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Fifteen’s 9 Conference Championship Games
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. (#3) Penn State (11-1) vs. (#1) Oregon (12-0) – (Big Ten Championship Game – Indianapolis, Indiana) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – We all thought this game was going to be between Oregon and Ohio State. Michigan borrowed a line from Lee Corso – “Not so fast my friends.” Yes, Michigan spoiled things for the Buckeyes. Enter Penn State. Why Penn State and not Indiana? Both had 8-1 records in Big Ten play. And they did not meet each other during the season. Well, Penn State’s Big Ten opponents had more combined wins against other Big Ten teams than did Indiana’s Big Ten opponents. So, there you have it – Penn State vs. Oregon. Oregon has the better offense, but not a lot better. Penn State has the better defense, but not a lot better. Penn State has more players on the injured list. I mean, we are getting down to splitting hairs…uh…feathers. The Duck doesn’t pass the buck – Oregon 27, Penn State 24.
RUNNER-UP: 2. (#5) Georgia (10-2) vs. (#2) Texas (11-1) – (SEC Championship Game – Atlanta, Georgia) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – There are nine conference championship games and four of them are rematches. This is one of the four. On the night of October 19, in Austin, Texas, Georgia beat Texas, 30-15. The Dawgs won in spite of Carson Beck throwing three interceptions. Georgia’s defense played a role. They held Texas to 29 yards rushing. Dawgs running back Trevor Etienne played a role too. He rushed for 87 yards. But Etienne is on the injured list. Will he play? The teams are almost identical on offense. Texas has the better defense. You better believe Steve Sarkisian and staff are studying the films of Georgia’s loss to Ole Miss and Georgia’s almost loss to Georgia Tech. There is something to be learned from those games. Since the game is being played in Georgia’s backyard, Bevo’s revenge is sweeter – Texas 23, Georgia 20.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. (#17) Clemson (9-3) vs. (#8) SMU (11-1) – (ACC Championship Game – Charlotte, North Carolina) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – On the eve of the season, Clemson was supposed to be in this game. SMU wasn’t. Then Clemson got off to a rough start and folks wondered about Clemson. But the Tigers, especially their offense, improved throughout the season. SMU was consistent all season – consistently good. The Mustangs’ one loss was to a 10-2 BYU team. And that loss was only by 3 points. Still, people had their doubts. Can SMU really be this good. Both teams are similar on offense and defense. SMU may be a tad better on offense. The Mustangs have Dabo babbling – SMU 24, Clemson 20.
4. (#20) UNLV (10-2) vs. (#10) Boise State (11-1) – (MWC Championship Game – Boise, Idaho) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – This contest is the second of the four rematches. On the night of October 25, in Las Vegas, Boise State beat UNLV, 29-24. It was a close game. The teams were pretty even in the stats. During the season, Boise State’ running back Ashton Jeanty averaged 190 yards per game rushing. UNLV held Jeanty to 128 yards. Interestingly, these teams are similar on offense and defense. There’s not a lot of difference. But there is one big difference. The Broncos have Jeanty – Boise State 31, UNLV 29.
5. (#16) Iowa State (10-2) vs. (#15) Arizona State (10-2) – (Big 12 Championship Game – Arlington, Texas) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – On the eve of the season, Iowa State was given a chance of being in this game. Arizona State was given no chance whatsoever. Some had ASU finishing 16th out of 16 teams in the Big 12. Well, the Sun Devils sure did fool everybody. It was running back Cam Skattebo who did the fooling. He rushed for 1,398 yards, averaging 117 yards a game. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht did the work for the Cyclones. Becht passed for 3,021 yards. The two teams are very similar on offense and defense. Neither team is flashy. It’s all basic football. The Sun Devils are better at the basics – Arizona State 30, Iowa State 27.
6. (#28) Tulane (9-3) vs. (#24) Army (10-1) – (AAC Championship Game – West Point, New York) – 8 pm ET, Friday, ABC – On the eve of the season, Tulane was given a very good chance of playing in this game. Army, on the other hand, was given no chance. Both teams were playing under a first this season. Tulane was playing under first-year coach Ron Sumrall. Army was playing its first season in the AAC. Key for Army is quarterback Bryson Daily. As Daily goes, so goes Army. He rushed for 1,348 yards. Tulane depends on quarterback Darian Mensah. He passed for 2,514 yards. And the Green Wave rely on running back Makhi Hughes. He rushed for 1,306 yards. Both teams appear to be injury free. Army never did like Waves – Tulane 30, Army 26.
7. Marshall (9-3) vs. (#31) Louisiana (10-2) – (Sun Belt Championship Game – Lafayette, Louisiana) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Marshall comes in on a six-game winning streak. The Herd haven’t lost since October 12. Louisiana had a six-game winning streak during midseason. Marshall’s strength is its running game. The Herd are 19th in the country rushing. However, they are 116th passing. Louisiana is 15th in the country in points scored – 36 points a game. The Ragin’ Cajuns rely on quarterback Ben Woodridge. He passed for 2,392 yards, completing 68% of his throws. Woodridge only threw 5 interceptions all season. The Cajuns leave Marco ragin’ – Louisiana 31, Marshall 24.
8. Ohio (9-3) vs. (#35) Miami (8-4) – (MAC Championship Game – Detroit, Michigan) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – This is the third of the four rematches. On the afternoon of October 19 in Miami, Ohio, Miami beat Ohio, 30-20. Ohio had two turnovers in the game. Miami had none. The RedHawks got off to an early lead. The Bobcats rallied but fell short. Ohio has not lost since that day. The Bobcats are on a five-game winning streak. Miami hasn’t lost since October 5. The RedHawks are on a seven-game winning streak. Both teams play decent defense and are average on offense. Miami’s strength is the passing of Brett Gabbert and the running of Keyon Mozee. Ohio relies on the passing and running of Parker Navarro and the running of Anthony Tyus. The Bobcats prevail in Motown – Ohio 24, Miami 22.
9. Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. Jacksonville State (8-4) – (C-USA Championship Game – Jacksonville, Alabama) – 7 pm ET, Friday, CBSSN – And finally, we have the fourth of the four rematches. These two teams just played each other last week. On the evening of November 30, in Bowling Green, Kentucky, Western Kentucky beat Jacksonville State, 19-17. WKU kicked a 50-yard field goal with 50 seconds remaining in the game to win. On the field, the Hilltoppers dominated the game. They dominated ball control too, possessing the football 36:27 to 23:33. Jax State scores well, but the Gamecocks score on running – 18th in the country – and not passing – 118th in the country. However, Jax State’s runner – quarterback Tyler Huff – is on the injured list and may not play. That leaves the running up to Tre Stewart who rushed for 1,403 yards. WKU is much weaker on offense. The Hilltoppers rely on the passing of Caden Veltkamp. WKU does play decent defense – better than Jax State. Last week was in Bowling Green. This week is in Jacksonville. The Gamecocks crow – Jacksonville State 27, Western Kentucky 20.
Quotes of the Week
“I am incredibly shocked and disappointed that Miami fell out of the College Football Playoff rankings. I hope the committee reconsiders prior to Selection Sunday,” ACC commissioner Jim Phillips.
“We’re good. Really, we are,” Indiana coach Curt Cignetti, on why Indiana should be in the College Football Playoff.
“The team that won the SEC? We beat them by 18 points,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, on why Ole Miss belongs in the College Football Playoff.
“What in the world is Indiana doing in the CFP? Indiana in the College Football Playoff is a charade that must end.” USA Today sportswriter Matt Hayes.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(The next CFW – Week 15 Results – will be posted Monday morning, December 9.)
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