CFW Week 18 Results/Forecast – Five overtimes in Hawaii
Miami-Iowa State, BYU-Colorado
headline the next 16 bowl games
Greetings from the Panhandle of Florida! The weather has been ideal – sunny, with highs in the 60s and lows in the 40s. That’s cool enough to make it feel a little bit like Christmas. Swamp Mama and I are enjoying our visit with Princess Gator, Gator Gabe and Gator Babe.
Gator Gabe and I stayed up late Christmas Eve to the end of that five-overtime game. We kept Santa Claus circling until we went to bed.
The busiest time of the bowl season is coming up. We have 16 games during the next three days. All 16 have the potential to be good and exciting games. However, the best two of the 16 looks like No. 18 Iowa State (10-3) vs. No. 13 Miami (Florida) (10-2) in the Pop-Tarts Bowl and No. 17 BYU (9-2) vs. No. 23 Colorado (9-3) in the Alamo Bowl. Both games are on Saturday. BYU-Colorado is one of those rare bowl appearances where you have two teams from the same conference playing each other. BYU and Colorado did not meet during the regular season. Saturday (December 20) is the busiest bowl day of all with eight games.
Several other games have my curiosity peaked. They are Rutgers vs. Kansas State, Oklahoma vs. Navy, Georgia Tech vs. Vanderbilt, Texas Tech vs. Arkansas and Boston College vs. Nebraska. I’m really curious to see how those five games turn out.
Three bowl games were played just before Christmas Day. Two days before Christmas, UTSA played like the team it was supposed to have been this season. The Roadrunners won the Myrtle Beach Bowl, beating Coastal Carolina, 44-15. Nothing like embarrassing a team on its home field.
Later that same day, the only team to beat Notre Dame this season won the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl. It took them two overtimes to do it, but Northern Illinois downed Fresno State, 28-20 (2OT). Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene did not play. Before the game, Keene entered the transfer portal. During the game, we learned that he will be playing for the Michigan Wolverines next season.
And finally, on Christmas Eve and the game that Gator Gabe and I watched to the very end, South Florida survived to beat San Jose State in five overtimes. The Bulls beat the Spartans, 41-39 (5OT).
Looks like Indiana will be playing with a transfer quarterback again next season. This year, Indiana had an 11-2 season under transfer portal quarterback Kurtis Rourke. Rourke transferred to Indiana from Ohio. The other day, Indiana picked up transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza. Mendoza played for California this past season. He passed for 3,004 yards and 16 touchdowns, completing 69% of his passes. He only threw six interceptions. Mendoza is from Miami, Florida.
Banned again. Bevo’s going to start feeling like the Stanford band or the Illinois mascot. The Longhorn steer has been banned again from making an appearance at the Texas game in Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for the second time. Texas plays Arizona State in Atlanta on New Year’s Day and Bevo won’t be there. He wasn’t there either when Texas lost to Georgia in the SEC title game on December 7.
Happy Hanukkah and Happy New Year!
Touchdown Tom
December 26, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Review of the Last Three Bowl Games
Roadrunners coasted – (in the Myrtle Bowl) – UTSA 44, Coastal Carolina 15 (Touchdown Tom said: UTSA 34, Coastal Carolina 31). Both teams started out slow. The score was 0-0 after one quarter. UTSA came to life in the second quarter. The Roadrunners led 21-0 at the break. UTSA extended its lead to 27-0 in the third quarter and 37-7 in the fourth quarter. It was a bad day for Coastal Carolina. UTSA receiver David Amador had 7 catches for 110 yards. The Roadrunners racked up 513 total yards – 256 passing and 257 rushing. It was a sloppy game with 20 penalties – 10 on each team. After losing 4 of their first 6 games, UTSA finished the season strong winning 5 of their last 7 games. Attendance in Conway: 8,164
Huskies like cold weather – (in the Idaho Potato Bowl) – Northern Illinois 28, Fresno State 20 (2OT) (Touchdown Tom said: Northern Illinois 27, Fresno State 20). In regulation, Fresno State scored all 13 of its points in the first quarter. Northern Illinois scored 10 of its 13 points in the third quarter. Both teams scored in the first overtime. Fresno State didn’t score in the second overtime. Fresno State receiver Mac Dalena had 6 catches for 118 yards. Ball possession favored NIU 39:14 to 20:46. Penalties favored Fresno State. The Bulldogs had 8 penalties; the Huskies had one. NIU ended its season at 8-5. Attendance in Boise: 10,359
It ain’t over till it’s over – (in the Hawaii Bowl) – South Florida 41, San Jose State 39 (5OT) (Touchdown Tom said: San Jose State 27, South Florida 21). San Jose State should never have lost this game. The Spartans let it slip through their fingers. Two early turnovers and a kickoff return for a touchdown allowed South Florida to take a 21-10 halftime lead. San Jose State rallied from its first-half mistakes to take a 27-24 lead early in the fourth quarter. Then the Spartans had several opportunities to increase their lead. But poor play calling and poor execution allowed South Florida to recover and put the game into overtime. The Bulls kicked a 41-yard field goal with 0:02 remaining to tie the score at 27-27. Both teams scored in the first overtime (34-34) and both kicked a field goal in the second overtime (37-37). Both made their two-point conversions in the third overtime (39-39). Both failed to convert in the fourth overtime (still 39-39). Finally, in the fifth overtime, South Florida converted, and San Jose State didn’t (41-39). The Spartans totally dominated the stats – first downs, total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and ball possession. San Jose State receiver Matthew Coleman had 12 catches for 119 yards. South Florida receiver Sean Atkins had 11 catches for 104 yards. Attendance in Honolulu: 6,720
Last Three Bowl Game Picks: 2 winners, 1 fumble (66.7 percent)
Total Bowl Game Picks To Date: 8 winners, 2 fumbles (80 percent)
Superlatives
Impressive Passers:
UTSA’s Owen McCown – 23-30-1-254 (1TD).
Impressive Rushers:
Fresno State’s Bryson Donelson – 82 yards (1TD).
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for The Next 16 Bowl Games
Pitt (7-5) vs. Toledo (7-5) – (ACC vs. MAC) – Sports Bowl (Ford Field – Detroit, Michigan) – 2 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – Pitt had a strange season. The Panthers won their first seven games. Then they proceeded to lose their last five games. Except for the rushing game, Pitt had a good offense. Except for defending against the rush, Pitt had a bad defense. The offense averaged 32 points a game. The defense allowed 28 points a game. Toledo had a good but disappointing season. The Rockets were supposed to contend for the MAC title. They didn’t. Still, they managed a winning season. Except for the lack of a rushing game, the offense was pretty good. Toledo’s defense was just better than average. The Rockets are fired up – Toledo 27, Pitt 24.
Rutgers (7-5) vs. Kansas State (8-4) – (Big Ten vs. Big 12) – Rate Bowl (Chase Field – Phoenix, Arizona) – 5:30 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – Rutgers began the season 4-0. Then they lost 5 of their last 8 games. The Rutgers offense is not good, and the defense is worse. Running back Kyle Monangai rushed for 1,279 yards. Kansas State began the season 7-1. Then the Wildcats lost 3 of their last 4 games. K-State is a strong running team, relying on D.J. Giddens who rushed for 1,343 yards. Quarterback Avery Johnson is a good one. He passed for 2,517 yards. K-State has an average defense. The Wildcats are hungry – Kansas State 27, Rutgers 18.
Arkansas State (7-5) vs. Bowling Green (7-5) – (Sun Belt vs. MAC) – Ventures Bowl (Hancock Whitney Stadium – Mobile, Alabama) – 9 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – Arkansas State was an up-and-down team, mostly on the up. However, the Red Wolves gave up more points than they scored. The offense averaged 25 points a game. The defense allowed 32 points a game. The Red Wolves’ defense was one of the worst in the country. The offense is anchored by quarterback Jaylen Raynor. He passed for 2,562 yards. Bowling Green started the season slow and finished strong. The Falcons were 2-4 after their first 6 games. Then they won 5 of their last 6 games. BG’s offense is a little weak. Their defense is better – much stronger. On offense, quarterback Connor Bazelak passed for 2.654 yards. The Falcons soar – Bowling Green 28, Arkansas State 20.
Oklahoma (6-6) vs. Navy (9-3) – (SEC vs. AAC) – Armed Forces Bowl (Carter Stadium – Fort Worth, Texas) – 1 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – Oklahoma had a bad offense with a pretty good defense in 2024. The Sooners averaged 24 points a game and gave up 22 points a game. There was no strength on the offense. The defense was particularly good against the rush. The Sooners had quarterback problems all season. If Navy quarterback Blake Horvath is having a good game, the Middies are unbeatable. As Horvath goes, so goes Navy. He can run and he can pass. Navy averaged 32 points a game and gave up 22 points a game. Horvath has a good game – Navy 21, Oklahoma 20.
Georgia Tech (7-5) vs. Vanderbilt (6-6) – (ACC vs. SEC) – Birmingham Bowl (Protective Stadium – Birmingham, Alabama) – 3:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – Here’s two teams that performed better than expected this season. Georgia Tech relies on the two Haynes – quarterback Haynes King and running back Jamal Haynes. They are a good duo. Tech has a pretty good offense with a pretty good defense. Vanderbilt was a big surprise this season. The Commodores beat Alabama and Virginia Tech. They just lost to Texas by 3 points. Vandy is led by quarterback Diego Pavia. He is a scrambler. Pavia led the Commodores in both passing and rushing. Vandy finished 6-6 with an offense that isn’t all that good and a defense that isn’t all that good either. It’s a Haynes day – Georgia Tech 27, Vanderbilt 21.
Texas Tech (8-4) vs. Arkansas (6-6) – (Big 12 vs. SEC) – Liberty Bowl (Liberty Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee) – 7 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – Texas Tech can score. That’s for sure – 39 points a game. But Tech’s opponents can score too – 35 points a game. Tech was one of two teams to beat Arizona State and one of three teams to beat Iowa State. Quarterback Behren Morton passed for 3,300 yards and running back Tahj Brooks rushed for 1,505 yards. They are a strong combination. Arkansas’ best win this season was over Tennessee. Otherwise, it was an up-and-down season for the Razorbacks. In general, they weren’t spectacular. Quarterback Taylen Green is good. The offense is strongest at passing. The defense is strongest against the rush. Pork tenderloin for the Red Raiders – Texas Tech 31, Arkansas 28.
Syracuse (9-3) vs. Washington State (8-4) – (ACC vs. Pac-2) – Holiday Bowl (Snapdragon Stadium – San Diego, California) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – Quarterback Kyle McCord had quite a season for Syracuse. He finished 10th in the Heisman Trophy voting. McCord passed for 4,326 yards. Syracuse was the No. 1 passing team in the country. The Orange combine the good passing with poor rushing – one of the worst rushing teams in the country. And the Cuse defense isn’t good either. But McCord often makes up for the difference. Washington State began strong with an 8-1 record. Then the Cougars lost their last three games, all to weak teams – New Mexico. Oregon State and Wyoming. Washington State was a high-scoring team – 37 points a game. The Cougars allowed 28 points a game. Quarterback John Mateer was their leading passer and rusher. But he left for the transfer portal. The Cougars lost their coach too. McCord has a Holiday – Syracuse 33, Washington State 20.
USC (6-6) vs. Texas A&M (8-4) – (Big Ten vs. SEC) – Las Vegas Bowl (Allegiant Stadium – Las Vegas, Nevada) – 10:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – It was a disappointing year for the Trojans – a disappointing offense and a disappointing defense. Coach Lincoln Riley is not a popular man in Troy. Texas A&M finished the season with an 8-4 record. The Aggies were 8-2, going into their final two games. A&M didn’t have the best offense or defense. But the Aggies held their own most of the time. The Trojans rise to the occasion – USC 30, Texas A&M 27.
Connecticut (8-4) vs. North Carolina (6-6) – (Ind. vs. ACC) – Fenway Bowl (Boston, Massachusetts) – 11 am ET, Saturday, ESPN – This is practically a home game for UConn. The best part of the Huskies’ offense is its running game. There is nothing good about the Huskies’ defense. UConn won four of its last five games. This was a disappointing season for North Carolina and its coach Mack Brown. Brown was fired at the end of the season. The Tar Heels lost their last two games. They had a fairly good offense with a terrible defense. The Huskies kick the Tar out of the Heels – Connecticut 30, North Carolina 28.
Boston College (7-5) vs. Nebraska (6-6) – (ACC vs. Big Ten) – Pinstripe Bowl (Yankee Stadium – Bronx, New York) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Bill O’Brien against Matt Rhule. This should be a good game. Boston College’s offense is so-so. The Eagles changed quarterbacks at mid-season. The defense is good against the rush and bad against the pass. BC can be deceivingly good – a dangerous team, especially if running back Kye Robichaux is having a good day. But oftentimes, he is not. This game could be made in the shade for Nebraska quarterback Dylan Raiola. With BC’s weak pass defense, Raiola could have quite a game. During the season, Nebraska’s offense struggled. The Huskers’ defense was generally good. It’s a Big Red day in Yankee Stadium – Nebraska 28, Boston College 20.
Louisiana (10-3) vs. TCU (8-4) – (Sun Belt vs. Big 12) – New Mexico Bowl (University Stadium – Albuquerque, New Mexico) – 2:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – If quarterback Ben Wooldridge is playing for Louisiana, then the Cajuns have a chance. If he isn’t playing, then the Cajuns will get clobbered. Wooldridge has been out with a collarbone injury. TCU had a surprisingly good season at 8-4. On offense, the Horned Frogs mix one of the best passing games (7th in the country) with one of the worst running games (113th in the country). Quarterback Josh Hoover passed for 3,697 yards. The Frogs aren’t the best on defense. They gave up 26 points a game. TCU enters the game on a three-game winning streak. The Frogs make the Cajuns look like etouffee – TCU 33, Louisiana 14.
Iowa State (10-3) vs. Miami (Florida) (10-2) – (Big 12 vs. ACC) – Pop-Tarts Bowl (Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Iowa state was one win away from making the College Football Playoff. The Cyclones generally play better defense than offense. Iowa State was 3rd in the country in passing yards allowed per game. On offense, the Cyclones are led by quarterback Rocco Becht. He passed for 3.235 yards. Miami barely missed making the CFP. The Canes are led by one of the best quarterbacks in the country, Cam Ward. Ward finished 4th in the Heisman Trophy voting. He passed for 4,123 yards. Miami had one of the best offenses in the country. They averaged 44 points a game and 538 total yards a game. The Canes Have a decent running back in Damien Martinez. The defense was good but not the best. The Hurricane stalls the Cyclone – Miami 34, Iowa State 33.
Miami (Ohio) (8-5) vs. Colorado State (8-4) – (MAC vs. MWC) – Arizona Bowl (Arizona Stadium – Tucson, Arizona) – 4:30 pm ET, Saturday, CWN – Miami got off to a 1-4 start this season, then won 7 of their last 8 games. The RedHawks have a poor offense with a pretty strong defense. They averaged 23 points a game and gave up 19 points a game. Miami is quarterbacked by Brett Gabbert who passed for 2,737 yards. The RedHawks have a decent running back in Keyon Mozee who rushed for 1,073 yards. Overall. Colorado State is a pretty weak team that managed to win most of its games. The Rams averaged 25 points a game and allowed 24 points a game. The offense is generally weak. The strength is the passing of quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi. He passed for 2,475 yards. Ram tough – Colorado State 24, Miami 21.
East Carolina (7-5) vs. N.C. State (6-6) – (AAC vs. ACC) – Military Bowl (Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium – Annapolis, Maryland) – 5:45 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – East Carolina finished 7-5 but I’m not sure they were a very good team. The Pirates fired their coach during the season. They have one of the worst defenses in the country, giving up 28 points a game. NC State had a disappointing season. Everyone thought they were going to be good. They weren’t. The Wolfpack mixed a bad offense with an even worse defense. Offense averaged 29 points a game. Defense allowed 31 points a game. NC State ended the season on a bright note, beating North Carolina. The Pirates fall into the Wolf trap – NC State 34, East Carolina 23.
BYU (10-2) vs. Colorado (9-3) (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – Alamo Bowl (Alamodome – San Antonio, Texas) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – This is going to be a fun game. All Colorado games are fun with Deion Sanders. BYU just missed making the Big 12 title game. The Cougars are led by an exciting quarterback – Jake Retzlaff. He passed for 2,745 yards. The Cougars have a decent offense with a very good defense. The Cougars won their first 9 games this season. Colorado is all passing and no running. The passing comes from quarterback Shedeur Sanders. He was 8th in the Heisman Trophy voting. Sanders passed for 3,926 yards. Colorado averaged 35 points a game. The Buffaloes were 4th in the country in passing yards. The defense was better this season and that’s why Colorado was better. This should be a good one as BYU was 18th in the country in pass defense. The Cougars are Buffaloed – Colorado 31, BYU 30.
Louisiana Tech (5-7) vs. Army (11-2) (C-USA vs. AAC) – Independence Bowl (Independence Stadium – Shreveport, Louisiana) – 9:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – This was going to be a competitive bowl game – Army vs. Marshall. But Marshall opted out because too many of its players entered the transfer portal. Louisiana Tech is a poor replacement. The Bulldogs have one of the worst offenses in the country – 22 points a game. Fortunately, for the Bulldogs, the defense is better. The Caissons go rolling along. Yes, with Bryson Daily quarterbacking, Army should roll along. Daily, who came in 6th in the Heisman Trophy voting, had a bad game against Navy. He doesn’t have many bad games. So he should have a great game against Louisiana Tech. Daily rushed for 1,526 yards. Army averaged 31 points a game and gave up 16 points a game. Army was 1st in the country in rushing yards. The Bulldogs are squealing – Army 35, Louisiana Tech 15.
Quotes of the Week
“They’re a really good team. I don’t know if there’s a more talented team in the nation. Obviously, they’ve got great weapons outside at wideout and across the board. The tight end’s a big target and the running backs are elite,” Oregon coach Dan Lanning, on Ohio State.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(CFW’s annual holiday bonus What Year Was It? will be posted Saturday morning, December 28. You don’t want to miss it)
No comments:
Post a Comment