CFW Week 17 Results/Forecast – Is your bracket filled out?
March Madness in December
The College Football Playoff games begin this weekend. It’s the inaugural playoff with a 12-team format. It seems like only yesterday when the 4-team playoff began. That was just 10 years ago – 2014. Who knows, in just two years, we may have a 14 or 16-team playoff.
The problem with the current 12-team playoff is the seeding. I’ll accept that a Power Four conference champion should be seeded regardless of its ranking. I’ll agree that the highest-ranked Group of Five team should be seeded in the playoff regardless of its ranking. What I don’t agree with is giving conference champions a first-round bye if they aren’t ranked in the Top 4 of the final CFP rankings.
In other words, Arizona State and Boise State shouldn’t have first-round byes. Arizona State should be seeded 11th and Boise State should be seeded 9th. As far as I’m concerned, the Top 4 teams in the ranking should be the four teams getting a bye. So, here is the way this year’s bracket should be.
Oregon, Georgia, Texas and Penn State should have the first-round byes. They are first through fourth in the rankings.
The first-round games beginning this weekend would consist of No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Notre Dame, with the winner playing Penn State in the second round. No. 11 Arizona State at No. 6 Ohio State, with the winner playing Texas in the second round. No. 10 SMU at No. 7 Tennessee, with the winner playing Georgia in the second round. And No. 9 Boise State at No. 8 Indiana, with the winner playing Oregon in the second round.
As the highest-ranked and highest-seeded team, Oregon should have the easiest path to the third round. But in this year’s screwed up seedings, Oregon has the toughest path, playing the winner of Tennessee-Ohio State. Penn State, who should be seeded 4th with the toughest path to the third round, has the easiest path in this year’s screwed up seedings. Penn State hosts SMU this weekend. If they win, and they should, then the Nittany Lions play Boise State in the third round.
Oh well, college football is fun but the people who run things never seem to get it right. Like the open period for the transfer portal. The portal window should not be open in December when most of the bowl games and playoff games are taking place. But when should the winter portal window open?
The winter portal window opened on December 9 and runs through December 28. It always opens around the end of the fall semester. That allows players to be signed by another school in time to register for the spring semester and participate in spring practice. The spring portal window will be open April 16-25, near the end of the spring semester. It allows players to be signed by another school in time to register for the summer term and participate in summer workouts and fall practice.
As we began, before I got off track, the College Football Playoff games begin this weekend. One game Friday night (8 pm ET) and three on Saturday (12 noon ET, 4 pm ET and 8 pm ET).
In the opener Friday night, Notre Dame hosts Indiana. All odds are on the Irish. But can the Cinderella Hoosiers defy the odds?
The action continues at 12 noon Saturday in State College, Pennsylvania. Penn State hosts SMU. For some reason, the pundits seem to think if there is going to be an upset in the first round, then this is it. They think SMU can pull it off. You better not tell James Franklin that.
Next up Saturday is Clemson at Texas. Clemson is the lowest-ranked and lowest-seeded team in the playoff. I’d say that gives the Tigers some incentive.
We close out Saturday night with Tennessee at Ohio State. The last time the Buckeyes played in Ohio Stadium, they lost. Will it be two in a row? They say there is going to be a lot of Orange in Ohio Stadium Saturday night.
Man, this is like March Madness in December. Is your bracket filled out?
In addition to the playoff, there are three bowl games this weekend. But none are competing with the playoff games. They made sure of that. Tonight, Georgia Southern meets Sam Houston in the New Orleans Bowl. My money is on Georgia Southern.
At noon on Friday, Ohio takes on Jacksonville State in the Cure Bowl in Orlando. This could be some game – high scoring, lots of touchdowns. Then at 3:30 pm ET on Friday, Tulane and Florida tangle in the Gasparilla Bowl in Tampa. The Gators are hot; the Green Wave are not.
No bowl games Friday night and no bowl games Saturday. That’s CFP time.
The bowl season resumed Tuesday night in Frisco, Texas. Memphis won, of all things, the Frisco Bowl. The Tigers held on to subdue late charging West Virginia, 42-37. Trailing Memphis 35-17 with less than eight minutes to go in third quarter, the Mountaineers outscored the Tigers 20-7 in the next 18 minutes to close the gap to five points – 42-37. But the comeback fell short. Driving for the go-ahead touchdown in the closing couple of minutes, WVU quarterback Garrett Greene threw an interception which killed the Mountaineers’ hopes.
Wednesday night, the Boca Raton Bowl was James Madison’s running game against Western Kentucky’s passing game. The running game won. JMU beat WKU, 27-17.
In the nightcap last night, California outplayed UNLV in the LA Bowl. However, the Golden Bears lost to the Rebels, 24-13. At the end of the first quarter, Cal led UNLV, 10-7. After that, it was all Rebels.
Just when we thought the coaching carousel was all but over, Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson announced he is stepping down. Clawson coached the Demon Deacons for 11 seasons (2014-2024) with a 67-69 record. Wake Forest made seven consecutive bowl appearances between 2016-2022 and participated in the ACC title game in 2021. Prior to Wake Forest, he was the head coach of Fordham, Richmond and Bowling Green. Clawson is the only head coach in Division I history to lead four different programs to double-digit wins in a season. He will remain with Wake Forest in an advisory role.
It didn’t take long for Wake Forest to find its new coach. Two days after Dave Clawson stepped down, Wake Forest named Washington State coach Jake Dickert as his replacement Wednesday.
Also on Wednesday, Sam Houston named Phil Longo its new head coach. Longo has been the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach at Wisconsin the past two years but was fired a few weeks ago by Wisconsin coach Luke Fickell. Prior to Wisconsin, Longo was the offensive coordinator/quarterbacks coach at Ole Miss (2017-2018) and North Carolina (2019-2022).
With Clawson stepping down, that makes for 26 schools who will have new head coaches next season. Of the 25 schools, 24 have found their new coach, while one – Jacksonville State – is still looking.
And in stranger than science news, starting next year in 2025, the Ivy League football champion will compete for the first time in the FCS playoff. Since Division IAA evolving into the FCS level of football began, the Ivy League football teams have always competed at the Division IAA/FCS level. But, until now, the Ivy League has always turned up its nose on postseason competition in football. Football has been the only sport that Ivy League teams did not compete in for NCAA championships. So, “Boola Boola” and “Roar Lions, Roar.”
Happy Holidays……Merry Christmas……Happy Hanukkah……Season’s Greetings
Touchdown Tom
December 19, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Review of the Last Three Bowl Games
Defenseless in Frisco (in the Frisco Bowl) – Memphis 42, West Virginia 37 (Touchdown Tom said: Memphis 34, West Virginia 24). If only West Virginia had a defense, the Mountaineers might win some more football games. At one stretch, Memphis scored on six-consecutive possessions. Of course, two turnovers didn’t help WVU any. WVU quarterback Garrett Greene was 29-40-1, passing for 328 yards and two touchdowns. Greene also rushed for 95 yards and one touchdown. Mountaineers’ receiver Hudson Clement had 11 receptions for 166 yards. WVU racked up 534 total yards. West Virginia dominated all the stats, except for the score. Memphis ended its season at 11-2. Attendance in Frisco: 12,022
The Dukes did the Topping – (in the Boca Raton Bowl) – James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 17 (Touchdown Tom said: James Madison 31, Western Kentucky 27). James Madison scored first and JMU scored last. The Dukes outscored Western Kentucky 20-3 in the second half. The Dukes rushed for 212 yards. The Hilltoppers passed for 302 yards. JMU held WKU to just 16 yards rushing. The Hilltoppers suffered from three turnovers. Ball possession went to the Dukes 36:32 to 23:28. James Madison ended its season at 9-4. Attendance in Boca Raton: 15,808
These Bears weren’t golden – (in the LA Bowl) – UNLV 24, California 13 (Touchdown Tom said: UNLV 24, California 21). California scored all of its points in the first half – most of them in the first quarter. The Bears outplayed the Rebels. Cal had more first downs, more total yards, more passing yards, and more rushing yards. The Bears even dominated ball possession 35:50 to 24:10. But Cal only had one touchdown. Attendance in Inglewood: 24,420
Last Three Bowl Game Picks: 3 winners, 0 fumbles (100 percent)
Total Bowl Game Picks: 4 winners, 0 fumbles (100 percent
Superlatives
Impressive Passers:
West Virginia’s Garrett Greene – 29-40-1-328 (2TDs);
Impressive Rushers:
None
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for The Next Three Bowl Games and Four Playoff Games
Georgia Southern (8-4) vs. Sam Houston (9-3) – (Sun Belt vs. C-USA) – New Orleans Bowl (Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana) – 7 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN – In spite of being average on offense and weak on defense, Georgia Southern had a remarkably good season. The Eagles came close to winning the Sun Belt East and playing in the conference title game. They were the only team in the Sun Belt to beat Marshall, the conference champion. Georgia Southern’s best hope on offense is quarterback J.C. French. French passed for 2,619 yards, completing 66% of his passes. Sam Houston will be playing the game under an interim coach. The Bearkats lost their coach a couple of weeks ago to Temple. Sam Houston has a weak offense with a good defense. The defense was 19th in the country in points allowed – holding opponents to 20 points a game. The offense was one of the worst in the country in all phases except for rushing yards. The Bearkats have a pretty strong running game. The Eagles soar – Georgia Southern 27, Sam Houston 20.
Ohio (10-3) vs. Jacksonville State (9-4) – (MAC vs. C-USA) – Cure Bowl (Camping World Stadium – Orlando, Florida) – 12 noon ET, Friday, ESPN – We have two conference champions playing in this game. Ohio won the MAC championship, while Jacksonville State won the C-USA title. Ohio enters the game on a six-game winning streak. The Bobcats are good on offense with the threats of running back Anthony Tyus and quarterback Parker Navarro. As a duo, they are dangerous. The Bobcats are good on defense too, holding opponents to 18 points a game – 11th in the country. Ohio is 8th in the country in total yards allowed per game. Jax State lost its coach and will be playing under an interim. Rich Rodriguez left the Gamecocks to take the job at West Virginia. Jax State is powerful on offense and weak on defense. The Bearcats have a dangerous duo too – running back Tre Stewart and quarterback Tyler Huff. Huff likes to run more than passing. He rushed for 1,343 yards. Stewart rushed for 1,604 yards. Jax State was 2nd in the country in rushing yards per game – 267. The Bearcats were 12th in the country in points per game – 37. On defense, Jax State gave up 26 points a game. The Bobcats purr – Ohio 31, Jacksonville State 27.
Tulane (9-4) vs. Florida (7-5) – (AAC vs. SEC) – Gasparilla Bowl (Raymond James Stadium – Tampa, Florida) – 3:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN2 – As the season came to an end, Florida was getting better, while Tulane was getting worse. The Gators won their last three games. The Green Wave lost their last two games. Tulane also lost its quarterback, as Darian Mensah entered the transfer portal at season’s end. Tulane has a good offense and a good defense. But without Mensah, the offense may be weakened. The Green Wave do have a good running back in Makhi Hughes. He rushed for 1,372 yards. Florida’s improvement at the end of the season saved coach Billly Napier’s job. He was on the chopping block. Florida’s offense improved as quarterback D.J. Lagway improved. You could see the difference. The Gators’ defense also got better in the latter half of the season. Albert waves goodbye to the Green Wave – Florida 34, Tulane 20.
Indiana (11-1) at Notre Dame (11-1) – (Big Ten vs. Ind.) – College Football Playoff Round 1 (Notre Dame Stadium – South Bend, Indiana) – 8 pm ET, Friday, ABC (Gametime temp and weather forecast: 27 degrees and snow) – Unlike the other three first-round visitors, Indiana doesn’t have far to travel. Bloomington to South Bend is 195 miles. That’s like a day trip for the Hoosiers. Indiana was the darling of college football this season. A team that usually finishes at the bottom of the Big Ten, the Hoosiers finished near the top. Indiana got off to a record 10-0 start before losing their first game and only losing game. And to make matters more interesting, the Hoosiers were playing under a first-year coach – Curt Cignetti. Surprisingly, Indiana was good on both offense and defense. The offense, led by quarterback Kurtis Rourke, averaged 43 points a game. As a team. Indiana averaged 439 total yards a game. The defense was 1st in the country in rushing yards allowed – 71. And 2nd in the country in total yards allowed – 249. Notre Dame is not a flashy team. The Irish players play well as a team and get the job done. On offense, the Irish are a running team – 225 yards a game. They average 40 points a game. On defense, ND is good too – holding opponents to 14 points a game. The Irish only allow 297 total yards per game. So, Indiana and Notre Dame are well skilled on offense and defense. I’m going with the luck of the Irish – Notre Dame 30, Indiana 28.
SMU (11-2) at Penn State (11-2) – (ACC vs. Big Ten) – College Football Playoff Round 1 (Beaver Stadium – University Park, Pennsylvania) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, TNT (Gametime temp and weather forecast: 26 degrees and partly sunny/partly cloudy) – Along with Indiana, SMU was the other darling of college football in 2024. It’s been a long time since SMU has been playing at this level of football. The Mustangs two losses were by a total of 6 points. One loss was in overtime. SMU’s offense is delivered by quarterback Kevin Jennings and running back Brashard Smith. Jennings passed for 3,050 yards and Smith ran for 1,267 yards. Jennings completed 66% of his lobs. SMU’s offense averaged 39 points a game. The defense gave up 21 points a game. They were weak against the pass and strong against the run. Opponents only averaged 93 yards a game rushing against SMU. Penn State’s offense is good, but the defense is better. Every phase of Penn State’s defense is no worse than 16th in the country. Opponents are held to 16 points a game. The Nittany Lions’ offense is deceptive. Quarterback Drew Allar is not flashy, but he is good. He gets the job done. A key to Penn State’s offense is tight end Tyler Warren. He had 88 catches for 1,062 yards. Warren was 7th in the Heisman voting. If SMU holds on to the ball, the Mustangs will give the Lions’ defense a test. The Lions pass – Penn State 30, SMU 24.
Clemson (10-3) at Texas (11-2) – (ACC vs. SEC) – College Football Playoff Round 1 (DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium – Austin, Texas) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, TNT (Gametime temp and weather forecast: 61 degrees and sunny) – Clemson is the lucky team of the four visiting playoff teams. The weather will be pleasant in Austin. Aside from that, Clemson may not be so lucky. The Tigers are good on offense, weaker on defense. Clemson’s offense relies on the passing of Cade Klubnik – 3,303 yards, 64% completion rate and only 5 interceptions. And the running of Phil Mafah – 1,116 yards rushing. Clemson’s offense averages 36 points a game. The Tigers are not strong in any phase of the defense. They gave up 22 points a game and 365 total yards a game. Some think Texas has the best defense in the country. Some of that defensive strength may be a result of the weakness of Texas’ schedule. Still, the Longhorns are good on defense. The Texas offense averages 34 points a game. But it wasn’t real sharp in either of its games against Georgia. The Dawgs won both of those games. Quarterback Quinn Ewers definitely needs to step it up a notch. Bevo prevails – Texas 33, Clemson 20.
Tennessee (10-2) at Ohio State (10-2) – (SEC vs. Big Ten) – College Football Playoff Round 1 (Ohio Stadium – Columbus, Ohio) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ABC (Gametime temp and weather forecast: 25 degrees and partly cloudy) – Tennessee’s two losses were the miscue against Arkansas and the spanking from Georgia. Oh well, Texas had two spankings from Georgia. Aside from that, the Vols looked pretty good, including the win over Alabama. Ohio State will be an interesting and tough opponent for Tennessee. The Vols have one of the best offenses and defenses in the country. The Vols score at a rate of 37 points a game, while only giving up 14 points a game. The quarterbacking is handled by quarterback Nico Iamaleava – a freshman quarterback who makes freshman mistakes. The running is handled by Dylan Sampson who rushed for 1,487 yards. Ohio State is similar to Tennessee. The Buckeyes average 36 points a game and give up 11 points a game. The Ohio State defense is probably better than Tennessee’s defense. The Buckeyes are quarterbacked by Will Howard. Howard is generally dependable. The running duties are split between Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson. If one is off, the other is usually on. Ohio State’s two losses this season were by a total of 4 points. In bowl games, Ohio State has a 1-13 record against SEC teams. Overall, the Buckeyes are 23-15-3 against the SEC. The Vols convince the Buckeyes they are in a bowl game – Tennessee 27, Ohio State 24.
FCS Semifinals
South Dakota State (12-2) at North Dakota State (12-2)
South Dakota (11-2) at Montana State (14-0)
Division II Championship
Valdosta State (13-0) vs. Ferris State (13-1)
Division III Semifinals
Susquehanna (12-1) at North Central (13-0)
Johns Hopkins (12-1) at Mount Union (13-0)
Quotes of the Week
“We got problems in college football,” Penn State coach James Franklin, on the open transfer portal overlapping with the college football playoff and bowl games.
“It’s sad. It’s terrible. There is no other sport at all that has free agency in the season. The real easy thing is you don’t have a transfer portal in December. That’s the real easy answer and it solves all the problems,” SMU coach Rhett Lashlee, calling for an end to the December portal window.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
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