CFW Week 16 Forecast – Army-Navy in 126th meeting
Have bowls lost their appeal?
The first of 41 bowl games kicks off this weekend – 41 bowls plus the national championship game. That’s 42 more games to look forward to between December 13 and January 19.
The first of the 41 bowls actually is not a bad one. Boise State (9-4) takes on Washington (8-4) in the LA Bowl. Both teams can score points with exciting players like Boise State quarterback Maddux Maden and Washington quarterback Demond Williams. I would think this should be a pretty good game. The teams don’t play each other much, but they are natural enemies.
Ten teams declined bowl bids on Sunday. Initially, it was three teams who declined invitations – Notre Dame, Iowa State and Kansas State. Those three teams all had records (6-6 or better) to qualify for a bowl. When they didn’t accept bids, that left three of the 82 spots open. There were no more teams with 6-6 or better records left. So, the bowls went to 5-7 teams to fill the three spots. However, the first seven invited – Auburn, Baylor, Florida State, Kansas, Rutgers, Temple and UCF – also declined the invites. Eventually, Appalachian State, Mississippi State and Rice – all with 5-7 records – accepted and the three vacant spots were filled.
Iowa State and Kansas State declined their bids because they were in the midst of coaching changes. Iowa State lost long-time coach Matt Campbell to Penn State. Kansas State coach Chris Klieman retired unexpectedly. Also, Iowa State and Kansas State were disappointed in their seasons. They simply weren’t in the mood to go bowling.
Notre Dame was a different story. The Irish were being spiteful for not making the College Football Playoff. The Big 12 fined Iowa State and Kansas State $500,000 for declining their bids. The NCAA should have fined Notre Dame $500,000 for not accepting its bid.
The CFP selection committee was correct in placing Notre Dame behind Alabama and Miami. They did the right thing. Miami beat Notre Dame in the head-to-head meeting. Alabama played a much tougher schedule than Notre Dame. Every year, since the 4-team followed by the 12-team CFP began, at least one team has felt jilted. But they always accepted their bowl bid.
Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua attacked the ACC for Notre Dame’s failure to make the CFP. He said the ACC has caused “permanent damage” to their relationship. Bevacqua accused the ACC of aiding and helping Miami to finish higher in the rankings over Notre Dame. Well, “duh.” Miami is a football playing member of the ACC. Notre Dame isn’t. You get the feeling Notre Dame is a self-centered school. The Irish really need to join a conference.
Now, to Notre Dame’s credit, the final AP, Coaches and CBS Sports polls all had Notre Dame 9th, Miami 10th, and Alabama 11th. So, the press, the coaches and the CBS Sports analysts all think Notre Dame should be in the playoff. And they don’t think Alabama should be in the playoff. Take that and chew on it.
Back to the bowls, there are too many bowls. You get the feeling that schools are starting to get tired of them. With the change in and timing of the transfer portal, many analysts say that athletic departments would rather spend the next three weeks preparing for the only portal window available than playing in a bowl game. The transfer portal window is January 2-16, 2026. There won’t be another transfer portal until January 2, 2027.
In recent years, players have been opting out of the bowls, making many of the games less appealing. Now, entire teams are opting out of bowls. Maybe some of the bowls need to opt out. With the arrival of the 12-team playoff, the bowls have definitely lost their appeal. And with the expansion to a 16-team playoff, bowls will be even less appealing. We may be witnessing the demise of the bowls.
Former college football coach Rick Neuheisel is predicting that bowl games will move from the end of the season to the beginning of the season. “I think bowl games are going to end up being the first game of the year,” Neuheisel said.
In addition to the first bowl game, we still have one more regular season game. An important one at that. Saturday marks the 126th playing of the Army-Navy game. Navy leads the series 63-55-7. This year’s contest will take place at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, Maryland. At 9-2, Navy is favored over Army, who is 6-5. Both teams will be playing in bowl games.
The Army-Navy game always reminds me of Thanksgiving Week in 1960. I was in the 9th grade. Along with some classmates, I was in Annapolis, Maryland. We stayed in the old Carvel Hall. A private home built in the 1760s, Carvel Hall became a hotel in1901. It remained a hotel until 1964. Carvel Hall was restored back to its original state and today it is The William Paca House and Gardens. William Paca was a signatory of the Declaration of Independence and a three-term governor of Maryland. Anyway, at lunch one day while we were in Annapolis, I spotted Navy running back Joe Bellino. I went up to Joe and got his autograph. A few days later, Navy beat Army, 17-12, thanks to the heroics of Bellino. The following week, Joe Bellino won the Heisman Trophy. I carried that autograph around in my billfold for 20-some years.
Just when the coaching carousel was starting to settle down, Michigan fired its head coach Sherrone Moore. Moore was fired with cause for having an inappropriate relationship with a staff member. Shortly after Moore was fired, he was arrested by local police for an alleged assault.
Meanwhile, Tulane and Toledo have new head coaches. The Green Wave promoted assistant head coach Will Hall to the head coach position at Tulane. Mercer head coach Mike Jacobs has been named the new head coach at Toledo.
So, the coaching carousel is still going around at three schools – Coastal Carolina, Washington State, and Southern Miss. Now Michigan joins those three schools in a search for a new coach. The latest has 30 schools who will have new head coaches next season.
The four finalists for this year’s Heisman Trophy are Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love, Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza, Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. The winner will be announced Saturday night at ceremonies in New York City. Love is the only non-transfer player of the four. Mendoza transferred to Indiana from California, Pavia transferred to Vanderbilt from New Mexico State, and Sayin transferred to Ohio State from Alabama.
Sources say Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman may be coaching the NFL’s New York Giants next year.
Later today, the SEC announces next year’s 9-game conference schedules for member schools.
Go Navy, beat Army!
Happy Holidays…..Merry Christmas…..Happy Hanukkah…..Season’s Greetings
Touchdown Tom
December 11, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Prediction for
This Week’s One Biggest and Most Intriguing Game….and the first bowl game
Army (6-5) vs. Navy (9-2) – (AC vs. AC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – These two teams finished the season about where they were expected to be. Navy was supposed to be a threat to win the AC and that they were. Army was supposed to finish around the middle of the pack and that they did. Navy has a much better offense than Army. Middies quarterback Blake Horvath does a little bit of everything. Horvath passed for 1,390 yards and rushed for 1,040 yards. Middies receiver Eli Heidenreich had 40 catches for 805 yards. Army’s only threat on offense is quarterback Cale Hellums. His threat is rushing. Hellums ran for 1,078 yards. The teams are reasonably close on defense. Navy’s defense is a little better. Still, this is the Army-Navy game, and anything can happen. It’s an emotional ballgame for the players and emotion wins games sometimes. Game time weather is predicted to be cloudy and around 38°. Sounds like Army-Navy game weather. The Middies make the Cadets look gray – Navy 28, Army 21.
Boise State (9-4) vs. Washington (8-4) – (MWC vs. Big Ten) – LA Bowl (SoFi Stadium – Inglewood, California) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – These two teams are pretty closely matched. Their offenses and defenses are similar in production. But Washington is a little better on offense and a little better on defense. Boise State is led by quarterback Maddux Madsen. Madsen had some injuries earlier in the season. But he seems to be back in form. He passed for 2,283 yards. Broncos running back Dylan Riley ran for 1,091 yards. Washington’s kingpin is quarterback Demond Williams. He passed for 2,850 yards. His favorite receiver is Denzel Boston. He had 56 catches for 755 yards. Boise State has the better running game. Washington has the better passing game. The game holds the promise for a very entertaining contest. The Huskies shine in LA – Washington 28, Boise State 24.
FCS Quarterfinals (December 12 and 13)
Stephen F. Austin (11-2) at Montana State (11-2) – 9 pm ET, Friday, ESPN
Villanova (11-2) at Tarleton State (12-1) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN
South Dakota (10-4) at Montana (12-1) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC
Illinois State (10-4) at UC Davis (9-3) – 5 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+
TT’s Annual Picks
My choice for the 2025 “Coach of the Year” from each FBS conference
ACC: Manny Diaz (Duke); (Runner-Up) Pat Narduzzi (Pitt)
Big 12: Brent Brennan (Arizona); (Runner-Up) Kilani Sitake (BYU)
Big Ten: Curt Cignetti (Indiana); (Runner-Up) Lincoln Riley (USC)
SEC: Clark Lea (Vanderbilt); (Runner-Up) Mike Elko (Texas A&M)
AC: Eric Morris (North Texas); (Runner-Up) Mike Harrell (East Carolina)
C-USA: Jerry Mack (Kennesaw State); (Runner-Up) Willie Simmons (FIU)
MAC: Lance Baylor (Western Michigan); (Runner-Up) Chuck Martin (Miami)
MWC: Jason Eck (New Mexico); (Runner-Up) Sean Lewis (San Diego State)
SBC: Bob Chesney (James Madison); (Runner-Up) Ricky Rahne (Old Dominion)
My choice for 2025’s national “Coach of the Year”
1. Clark Lea – Vanderbilt (10-2)
2. Curt Cignetti – Indiana (13-0)
3. Bob Chesney – James Madison (12-1)
If I had a vote for the Heisman Trophy, my ballot would be cast as follows
1. Diego Pavia (Vanderbilt)
2. Fernando Mendoza (Indiana)
3. Julian Sayin (Ohio State)
2025’s most surprising team or teams from each FBS conference
ACC: Duke
Big 12: (tie) Arizona and Houston
Big Ten: Iowa
SEC: Vanderbilt
AC: North Texas
C-USA: Kennesaw State
MAC: Western Michigan
MWC: New Mexico
SBC: (three-way tie) Troy, Old Dominion, Southern Miss
2025’s most disappointing team or teams from each FBS conference
ACC: Clemson
Big 12: (tie) Kansas State and Baylor
Big Ten: Penn State
SEC: (tie) LSU and Texas
AC: (tie) Memphis and UTSA
C-USA: Liberty
MAC: Buffalo
MWC: (tie) San Jose State and Colorado State
SBC: (tie) Appalachian State and Texas State
Quotes of the Week
“Just shut up already, Notre Dame fans. I mean, you haven’t done anything this year,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum.
“Embarrassing,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, on Notre Dame’s reaction to failing to make the CFP.
“We don’t need your approval to know who we are,” Notre Dame coach Marcus Freeman, responding to Paul Finebaum for calling Notre Dame “a bunch of sniveling crybabies,” and more.
“Pete Bevacqua is a bag of hot air,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, on the Notre Dame athletic director.
“I think Pete’s behavior has been egregious,” Big 12 commissioner Brett Yormark, on the behavior of Notre Dame athletic director Pete Bevacqua.
“We don’t need to be the other school in this town. We need to be ‘the’ school in this town,” new UCLA coach Bob Chesney.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 16 Results/Week 17 Forecast – will be posted Monday morning, December 15.
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