CFW Week 15 Forecast – College football in Brazil
Eight teams safe, two in jeopardy
The next to the last College Football Playoff rankings were released Tuesday night. Here are the Top-10 teams in the CFP rankings.
1. Ohio State (12-0), 2. Indiana (12-0), 3. Georgia (11-1), 4. Texas Tech (11-1), 5. Oregon (11-1), 6. Ole Miss (11-1), 7. Texas A&M (11-1), 8. Oklahoma (10-2), 9. Alabama (10-2), 10. Notre Dame (10-2).
Eight of those teams are safe. Two are in jeopardy. Sounds like “Dancing with the Stars.”
Regardless of who wins or loses this weekend, or who doesn’t play, Ohio State, Indiana, Georgia, Texas Tech, Oregon, Ole Miss, Texas A&M and Oklahoma are safe. They are guaranteed a spot in the CFP. Alabama and Notre Dame are in jeopardy. They are not guaranteed a spot in the CFP. The Crimson Tide and the Irish have to sweat it out.
Here’s why. If Alabama loses to Georgia, the Crimson Tide could slip to 11th in the rankings. Notre Dame would move up to No. 9 and Miami, currently No. 12 in the rankings, would move up to No. 10. Or if BYU upsets Texas Tech in the Big 12 title game, BYU, currently 11th in the rankings, would replace Notre Dame at No. 10. If both happen – Alabama loses to Georgia and BYU upsets Texas Tech – then Alabama and Notre Dame both fall out of the Top 10, replaced by BYU and Miami at No. 9 and No. 10 respectively. Got that?
To add to the intrigue, the 11th and 12th spots in the seedings for the CFP are a bit up in the air. If Virginia, currently 17th in the CFP rankings, beats Duke in the ACC title game, Virginia will be the 11th seed. However, if Duke upsets Virginia, there will be no ACC champion in the playoff. That’s because two Group of Five conference champions would be ranked higher than Duke.
Currently, Tulane is the highest-ranked Group of Five team. If Tulane beats North Texas in the American Conference title game, Tulane would be the 12th seed, assuming Virginia beats Duke. If Tulane loses then North Texas would be the 12th seed. If Duke upsets Virginia, then Tulane/North Texas would become the 11th seed, and either James Madison (Sun Belt) or UNLV/Boise State (MWC) would be the 12th seed. That assumes James Madison beats Troy in the Sun Belt title game.
This has to be nerve racking for a few teams. Stay tuned! It’s going to be interesting – very interesting.
Now, if we had a 16-team playoff, which they are talking about moving to next year, then Alabama, Notre Dame, BYU and Miami wouldn’t be sweating bullets. And Texas and Vanderbilt would be in the playoff. But that is neither here nor there.
The conference championship games are this weekend – four games Friday night and five games on Saturday.
Among the nine championship games, the Big Ten title game – Indiana (12-0) vs. Ohio State (12-0) is the Game of the Week. Two undefeated teams going head-to-head. You can’t ask for anything better. With Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin and Indian quarterback Fernando Mendoz, this game has Heisman Trophy implications. The winner would be in the pole position. Or will Vanderbilt’s Diego Pavia win the Heisman.
The next best game in the conference championship lineup is the SEC title game – Alabama (10-2) vs. Georgia (11-1). The Crimson Tide beat the Dawgs early in the season. But I think Georgia is playing better football than Alabama is right now. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson could get an invite to New York – if the Tide win.
Moving down the line, next up we have the Big 12 title game – BYU (11-1) vs. Texas Tech (11-1). This is another rematch. BYU will be out for revenge. Texas Tech is scary on offense and defense. BYU ain’t bad, but not scary.
Then we have the battle for a spot in the CFP. The American Conference title game has North Texas (11-1) at Tulane (10-2). Both coaches are leaving for new schools. North Texas coach Eric Morris is headed for Oklahoma State. Tulane coach Jon Sumrall is headed to Florida. Both will coach at their current schools through the conference title game and into the playoff if that occurs. North Texas is scary good on offense. Tulane’s defense is suspect. But to the Green Wave’s advantage, the North Texas defense is suspect too.
The ACC title game has Duke (7-5) vs. Virginia (10-2). Virginia won the meeting during the season – big time. No reason to believe Virginia won’t win again. But the Dookies can be surprising. They could surprise the ACC out of a spot in the CFP.
The Sun Belt provides us with Troy (8-4) at James Madison (11-1). James Madison is a ranked team. The Dukes could make the CFP. But they need help from their cousins the Dooky Dukes.
Out in the Rocky Mountains and beyond the Mountain West Conference gives us UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (8-4). UNLV needs to redeem itself from a bad loss to Boise State earlier this season. Can Dan Mullen rise to the occasion?
The Conference USA title game has Kennesaw State (9-3) at Jacksonville State (8-4). Kennesaw State has only been playing FBS football for three seasons. Last year, the Owls were 2-10. They were supposed to finish at the bottom of C-USA this year. They finished tied for first.
And last, but not least, the mighty MAC – Miami (Ohio) (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (8-4). This was a down year for the MAC. Usually, two or three teams excel. That didn’t happen this year. There were several teams bunched up at the top of the conference standings. The MAC is the only Group of Five conference that holds its championship game at a neutral site. They used to call Miami the “Cradle of Coaches.” Several top coaches came out of Miami – Earl Blaik, Paul Brown, Cam Cozza, Paul Dietzel, Webb Ewbank, John Hrbaugh, Sean McVay, Ara Parseghian, John Pont, Bo Schembechler and Thomas Van Voorhis. Statues of these coaches stand outside the south end of Miami’s Yager Stadium. But I digress.
The coaching carousel kicked it up a few notches over the Thanksgiving Weekend. The carousel has continued to be active this week – mostly with hires. Six schools have hired their new coaches since Monday. To begin, UCLA named James Madison coach Bob Chesney the new coach of the Bruins. Chesney will remain at JMU through the school’s remaining games – Sun Belt Conference championship game and possibly a playoff game .
Kentucky hired Oregon offensive coordinator Will Stein to be the new coach of the Wildcats. Former West Virginia coach Neal Brown was hired by North Texas to be the Mean Green’s new coach. This past season Brown was an offensive consultant on Steve Sarkisian’s staff at Texas.
Oregon defensive coordinator Tosh Lupoi is California’s new head coach. Oregon has now lost both of its coordinators to new head coaching jobs. And speaking of coordinators, South Florida hired Ohio State’s OC Brian Hartline to be the new coach of the Bulls.
No more coaches have been fired this week, but one coach retired. I’m assuming it wasn’t a forced retirement. Kansas State coach Chris Klieman retired after seven seasons with the Wildcats. Klieman compiled a 54-34 record.
Within minutes of Klieman’s announcement, Kansas State named Collin Klein its new coach. Klein, a former Kansas State quarterback, has been the offensive coordinator at Texas A&M.
As it stands now, 24 teams will have new coaches next year. Six schools are still searching for their new coach – Penn State, UAB, Connecticut, Coastal Carolina, Tulane and Memphis.
In an ironic twist of fate, former Florida coach Billy Napier’s name has surfaced as a strong candidate for the Tulane job.
Penn State has been searching longer than any of the six schools and Paul Finebaum had this to say about Penn State, “I’s a disaster. How can you go as long as they have gone without hiring a coach? Ten, 15, 20 schools have replaced coaches. What’s wrong with Penn State? When you are now heading into the first week in December without a coach, it’s pretty embarrassing.”
NC State and Virginia will open their seasons next year in Rio de Janeiro. The Wolfpack and the Cavaliers will meet in the first college football game in South America. The game will take place August 29, 2026, at Nilton Santos stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The same day, TCU and North Carolina will meet in Dublin, Ireland.
Touchdown Tom
December 4, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Fifteen’s 9 Conference Championship Games
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. (#2) Indiana (12-0) vs. (#1) Ohio State (12-0) – (Big Ten Championship Game – Indianapolis, Indiana) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – This is exactly what you want to see in a championship game – two undefeated teams going at it. Indiana and Ohio State did not meet during the season. This is one of only three conference championship games that are not a rematch. Both Indiana and Ohio State are loaded on offense. Both are loaded on defense. Indiana is 2nd in the country in scoring offense, averaging 44 points a game. The Hoosiers come at you with quarterback Fernando Mendoza. He has passed for 2,758 yards (32 touchdowns). Running back Roman Hemby. He has rushed for 866 yards. Receiver Omar Cooper. He has 38 catches for 804 yards. On offense, Ohio State counters with quarterback Julian Sayin. He has passed for 3,065 yards (30 touchdowns). Running back Bo Jackson. He has rushed for 952 yards. Receiver Jeremiah Smith. He has 72 catches for 942 yards. On defense, Indiana is 2nd in the country, allowing 11 points a game. Ohio State is 1st in the country, allowing 8 points a game. Only one team came close to Ohio State all season – Texas. The Buckeyes beat the Longhorns, 14-7, back on August 30. Ohio State won the rest of its games by 18-39 points. Indiana had two close calls. The Hoosiers beat Penn State by 3 points in overtime, and they beat Iowa by 5 points. Both of those games were on the road. The Hoosiers get pelted with Buckeyes – Ohio State 27, Indiana 24.
RUNNER-UP: 2. (#3) Georgia (11-1) vs. (#9) Alabama (10-2) – (SEC Championship Game – Atlanta, Georgia) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Alabama has had its way with Georgia in recent years. The Crimson Tide have won 10 of the last 11 games against the Dawgs. The game should be a defensive battle, as Alabama is 11th in the country on defense and Georgia is 12th. Both teams are allowing around 17 points a game on defense. That being said, the two teams have their share of guns on offense. Alabama has quarterback Ty Simpson. He has passed for 3,056 yards (25 touchdowns). Receiver Germie Bernard. He has 51 catches for 700 yards. Georgia counters with quarterback Gunner Stockton. He has passed for 2,535 yards (20 touchdowns). Running back Nate Frazier. He has rushed for 809 yards. Receiver Zach Branch. He has 68 catches for 691 yards. Georgia enters the game on an 8-game winning streak. The Dawgs last and only loss this season was back on September 28 to Alabama. The Tide beat the Dawgs, 24-21. That was a closely contested game. Alabama led in passing; Georgia led in rushing. This is one of six conference championship games that are a rematch. After so many recent losses to Alabama, Uga gets revenge – Georgia 27, Alabama 24.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. (#11) BYU (11-1) vs. (#4) Texas Tech (11-1) – (Big 12 Championship Game – Arlington, Texas) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – This game is a rematch. On November 8, Texas Tech beat BYU, 29-7. It was BYU’s only loss this season. The Cougars suffered from three turnovers. Texas Tech had none. The game wasn’t close. But that game was played in Lubbock. This one will be in Arlington, Texas. On offense, BYU has some impressive individuals. Quarterback Bear Bachmeier passed for 2,593 yards (14 touchdowns). Running back L.J. Marin rushed for 1,229 yards. Receiver Parker Kingston caught 57 passes for 804 yards. Texas Tech is a monster on offense and defense. They are 3rd in the country in both. The Red Raiders are 9th in the country in passing yards per game – 296. Texas Tech comes into the game on a 5-game winning streak. On offense, they are motivated by a trio of players. Quarterback Behren Morton has passed for 2.428yards (20 touchdowns). Running back Cameron Dickey has rushed for 1,023 yards. Receiver Caleb Douglas caught 53 passes for 823 yards. Another important factor for Tech is linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. He often is used as a weapon on offense. This meeting will be closer, but the Red Raiders still win – Texas Tech 31, BYU 21.
4. (#24) North Texas (11-1) at (#20) Tulane (10-2) – (American Conference Championship Game – New Orleans, Louisiana) – 8 pm ET, Friday, ABC – Both coaches are headed to new teams. Tulane coach Jon Sumrall may be coaching his last game for the Green Wave. He has been named the new coach at Florida. If Tulane loses, Sumrall will begin his duties at Florida. But if Tulane wins, and if Tulane makes the CFP, Sumrall will coach the Green Wave in the playoff, delaying his duties at Florida. North Texas coach Eric Morris is the new coach at Oklahoma State. These two teams did not meet during the season. The numbers are all with North Texas. The Mean Green were first in the country in scoring offense, averaging 47 points a game. They are 2nd in the country in passing yards, averaging 326 per game. Those numbers are provided by quarterback Drew Mastemaker. He passed for 3,835 yards (29 touchdowns). Running back Caleb Hawkins rushed for 1,216 yards. Receiver Wyatt Young had 62 catches for 1,203 yards. North Texas enters the game on a 6-game winning streak. Tulane doesn’t have a lot of fancy numbers, but the Green Wave gets the job done. They are engineered by quarterback Jake Retzlaff. Retzlaff led the team in both passing (2,717 yards) and rushing (561 yards). Jon Sumrall will be in Gainesville sooner rather than later – North Texas 35, Tulane 27.
5. Duke (7-5) vs. (#17) Virginia (10-2) – (ACC Championship Game – Charlotte, North Carolina) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – These two teams met a few weeks ago. Virginia won that encounter, 34-17. Duke only had 42 yards rushing, while Virginia had 540 total yards in that game. If Duke has a problem, and it does, it’s on defense. The Dookies are 97th in the country, giving up 29 points a game. The picture is better on offense. Duke is 12th in passing yards per game at 289. The offense gets generated by quarterback Darian Mensah. He passed for 3,450 yards (28 touchdowns). Running back Nate Sheppard rushed for 865 yards. Receiver Cooper Barkate had 63 catches for 978 yards. Virginia doesn’t have big numbers other than the Cavaliers have a 10-2 record. Their two losses were by a combined 11 points. The spearhead for Virgini is quarterback Chandler Morris. He passed for 2,586 yards (14 touchdowns). Receiver Trell Harris caught 56 passes for 809 yards. Virginia makes it two in a row this season over the Dookies – Virginia 31, Duke 28.
6. Troy (8-4) at (#25) James Madison (11-1) – (Sun Belt Conference Championship Game – Harrisonburg, Virginia) – 7 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – These two teams did not meet during the season. The Sun Belt is the only conference still operating with two divisions. Troy won the West Division. James Madison won the East Division. Troy had problems at times getting its act together. The Trojans have been through two quarterbacks and have suffered from some injuries. But when they have it together, the Trojans are a dangerous team. On the other hand, James Madison has all the fancy numbers. The Dukes are 10th in the country in scoring offense and defense. The offense averages 38 points a game. JMU us 6th in the country in rushing yards with 240 per game. The defense holds opponents to 16 points a game. JMU’s only loss this season was by 14 points to Louisville. JMU is led by quarterback Alonza Barnett. He passed for 2,440 yards (20 touchdowns). Running back Wayne Knight had 1,051 yards rushing. With a win, JMU could make the CFP as the Group of Five team. JMU coach Bob Chesney will become the new coach at UCLA when the Dukes’ season comes to an end. The Dukes sack Troy – James Madison 31, Troy 20.
7. UNLV (10-2) at Boise State (8-4) – (Mountain West Conference Championship Game – Boise, Idaho) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – This game is a rematch. During the season, Boise State beat UNLV, 56-31. It was UNLV’s first loss of the season. The Rebels were 6-0 coming into that contest. UNLV lost the following week to New Mexico. Now they are on a 4-game winning streak. Former Florida coach Dan Mullen had a good first season in Las Vegas. UNLV is 12th in the country in scoring offense, averaging 37 points a game. They are 3rd in rushing yards, averaging 262 yards a game. UNLV’s offense is led by quarterback Anthony Colansrea. He passed for 3,050 yards (22 touchdowns). Running back Jai’Den Thomas rushed for 944 yards. Receiver Jaden Bradley had 51 catches for 834 yards. Boise State wasn’t the typical Boise State this season. Still, the Broncos managed to make the MWC title game. The Broncos suffered from some injuries. Their best player on offense is running back Dylan Riley. He rushed for 1,016 yards. Close, but no jackpot for the Rebels – Boise State 30, UNLV 28.
8. Kennesaw State (9-3) at Jacksonville State (8-4) – (Conference USA Championship Game – Jacksonville, Alabama) – 7 pm ET, Friday, CBSSN – This game is a rematch. On November 15, Jacksonville State beat Kennesaw State, 35-26. Kennesaw State dominated the stats in that game. But the Owls suffered from four turnovers. The Owls have won nine of their last 10 games. Kennesaw State is much better at passing than rushing. Quarterback Amari Odom passed for 2,139 yards (17 touchdowns). Receiver Gabriel Benyard has 54 catches for 877 yards. Jax State is third in the country in rushing yards. The Gamecocks average 262 yards a game rushing. The running strength comes from running back Cam Cook. He rushed for 1,588 yards. Kennesaw State had an amazing season. The Owls went from 2-10 last year to 9-3 this year. Nothing wiser than an Owl – Kennesaw State 28, Jacksonville State 27.
9. Miami (Ohio) (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (8-4) – (Mid-American Conference Championship Game – Detroit, Michigan) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – This game is another rematch. Miami beat Western Michigan, 26-17, on October 25. Miami had the edge in rushing and passing that day. The RedHawks threat is receiver Cam Perry. He has 35 catches for 865 yards. WMU is on a 4-game winning streak. Quarterback Broc Lowry is the team’s leading passer and rusher. He passed for 1,572 yards and rushed for 875 yards. The Broncos Broc the RedHawks – Western Michigan 23, Miami (Ohio) 21.
Quotes of the Week
“It’s just so typical of Lane Kiffin to do something so utterly destructive. And that’s what he did. It is hard to believe, really, almost anything he said there in that interview – if he wanted to coach these kids, as he put it, he could have. The simple answer is that he would have remained the Ole Miss football coach, where he began the season, where he told these young men , ‘We have a chance to win the championship,’ and they still do, ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, on Lane Kiffin’s departure from Ole Miss to LSU.
“And what does he do? What Lane Kiffin always does – he lights a match to the castle that he built, and he runs out of town in the middle of the night. Although this was in broad daylight. It is utterly disgraceful and there is no getting around it. Lane Kiffin trying to blame others, trying to blame the adults in the room is so comical,” ESPN’s Paul Finebaum, on Lane Kiffin’s departure from Ole Miss to LSU.
“Winners win. I’m a winner. We will win,” new Florida coach Jon Sumrall, at his introductory press conference.
“FSU, they’ve got some issues. They’ve got a coach they can’t get rid of, cause they don’t have the money to let him go. So, that’s where they’re at,” former Florida coach Steve Spurrier.
“Four years ago this week, Lincoln Riley left Oklahoma for USC and Brian Kelly left Notre Dame for LSU. And for that, Oklahoma and Notre Dame will be forever grateful,” RedditCFB.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 15 Results – will be posted on Monday morning, December 8.
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