CFW Week 17 Results/18 Forecast – Déjà vu for Will Muschamp
The quarterfinals are set, but
please change the CFP format
We got a mixed grill in the first round games – a sampling of everything. Alabama and Oklahoma went from one extreme to the other. Taking advantage of Oklahoma mistakes, the Crimson Tide rallied from a 17-0 deficit to beat the Sooners, 34-24. Miami and Texas A&M gave us a defensive masterpiece, as neither team scored until four and a half minutes into the third quarter. Surprisingly, the Canes used their running game to subdue the Aggies, 10-3.
Tulane and Ole Miss showed us why the CFP format needs to be modified, as the rout was on. Ole Miss built up a 41-3 lead on its way to a 41-10 win over Tulane. James Madison and Oregon added emphasis to changing the CFP format, as the Ducks led the Dukes 34-6 at halftime. Oregon scored on every possession in the first half. However, James Madison won the second half 28-17, before falling to Oregon, 51-34.
I must say, the quarterfinals are shaping up to be an exciting two days of football on December 31 and January 1. You can celebrate New Year’s Eve, watching Miami (11-2) vs. Ohio State (12-1) in the Cotton Bowl Classic. The following day, you can toast the New Year, watching Oregon (12-1) vs. Texas Tech (12-1) in the Orange Bowl, Alabama (11-3) vs. Indiana (13-0) in the Rose Bowl, and Ole Miss (12-1) vs. Georgia (12-1) in the Sugar Bowl. That’s quite a lineup.
In all due respect, Tulane and James Madison did not belong in the playoff. Not only did they not belong, but also, they simply should not have been in the playoff. Because of the current format and rules for seeding teams in the playoff, I realize why Tulane and James Mdison made the playoff. But the current format and rules need to be changed.
Next year, the CFP appears to be changing to a 16-team playoff. That is a good thing. But let’s get rid of any and all guaranteed “automatic spots.” No conference and no Group of Five teams deserve an “automatic spot.” The 16 teams should be seeded in the CFP based on the final CFP rankings. The top 16 teams in the rankings should be the top 16 teams in the CFP. No ifs, ands or buts. Should a Group of Five team, or teams, finish in the top 16 of the final CFP rankings, then they should be in the playoff – seeded as ranked.
This year, Tulane and James Madison were not ranked in the top 12. Not only were they not ranked in the top 12, but also, they weren’t ranked in the top 16. Tulane was 20th and James Madison was 24th.
Had there not been any “automatic spots” this year, it would have been a different picture on Saturday. Instead of Tulane-Ole Miss, we would have had Notre Dame-Ole Miss. Instead of James Madison-Oregon, we would have had BYU-Oregon. And if we had had a 16-team playoff this year, without any “automatic spots,” then Texas, Vanderbilt, Utah and USC, along with Notre Dame and BYU, would have been in the playoff.
A change needs to be made.
As I began watching the Alabama-Oklahoma game Friday night, I thought this looks like the Alabama-Florida State game all over again. I even saw that befuddled look in Ty Simpson’s face. The same look I saw in his face during the Alabama-Florida State game. It didn’t look good for the Tide.
Then, due to mistakes by Oklahoma in the second quarter, the tide began to turn for the Tide. Alabama came to life. Ty Simpson no longer had the befuddled look. Oklahoma simply disintegrated. John Mateer assumed the befuddled look. Trailing Oklahoma 17-0 early in the second quarter, Alabama rallied to tie the Sooners, 17-17 at halftime. By the end of the third quarter, Alabama led OU, 27-17. The rally continued.
The Alabama-Oklahoma game was the exact opposite of the first meeting between the two teams earlier this season. In that first meeting, on November 15, Alabama lost to Oklahoma 23-21. In that game, despite the loss, Alabama dominated all the stats – more first downs, more total yards , more passing yards, more rushing yards and a 9-minute edge in time of possession. But Alabama made mistakes and had three turnovers. OU had none.
In Friday night’s game, Oklahoma lost to Alabama 34-24. Yet, despite the loss, Oklahoma dominated all the stats – more first downs, more total yards, more passing yards, more rushing yards and a 7-minute edge in time of possession. But Oklahoma made mistakes and had one turnover. Alabama had none.
Is that déjà vu in reverse?
In the first game Saturday, Miami disclosed Texas A&M to be the fraud we thought the Aggies were. Miami beat Texas A&M, 10-3. Texas A&M was an overrated football team. The Aggies only played two tough teams all season – Texas and Miami. And Texas A&M lost to both of them.
Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed was the MVP for Miami. The Aggies had three turnovers, and Reed was responsible for all three of them – two interceptions and a fumble. How pathetic of Texas A&M to only score 3 points on their own home field.
The final two games Saturday represented what’s wrong with the playoff system. No one should have to sit through playoff games with final scores like 41-10 (41-3 at one point) and 51-34 (48-13 at one point). That was Ole Miss-Tulane and Oregon-James Madison, respectively.
The Ole Miss-Tulane game became so painful to watch, I switched over to the Montana-Montana State – the “Brawl of the Wild.” The Grizzlies against the Bobcats. The teams were playing in the semifinals of the FCS championship. It was exciting for three quarters. Montana led Montana State, 23-20. Then Montana State went on a rampage, scoring 28 unanswered points. The Bobcats beat the Grizzlies, 48-23.
There were two bowl games during the day on Friday. They were the opening acts – the warm-up games – in advance of the headline act – Alabama-Oklahoma. In the first bowl Western Michigan showed up and Kennesaw State didn’t. WMU downed Kennesaw State, 41-6, in the Myrtle Beach Bowl.
In the second warm-up game on Friday, NC State and Memphis gave us the most boring second half of college football in the history of the sport. It was simply awful. The halftime score in the Gasparilla Bowl was NC State 31, Memphis 7. The final score of the game was NC State 31, Memphis 7.
Thursday night in the Xbox Bowl, Missouri State didn’t wake up until the fourth quarter, finding themselves down to Arkansas State, 31-7. But the Bears caught fire, outscoring the Red Wolves, 21-3 in the fourth quarter. Unfortunately for Mo State it was too little too late. Arkansas State downed Missouri State, 34-28.
And speaking of Missouri State, the school hired SMU offensive coordinator Casey Woods to be its next head football coach.
Déjà vu. From 2008 to 2010, Will Muschamp was the defensive coordinator at Texas, under head coach Mack Brown. Well, he’s back. And in the same job. Last week, Texas coach Steve Sarkisian named Muschamp his new defensive coordinator. For the past four years, Muschamp has been a defensive analyst and consultant on Kirby Smart’s staff at Georgia. Muschamp left Texas after the 2010 season to become the head coach at Florida. Muschamp was the defensive coordinator at Auburn in 2006 and 2007. After he was fired by Florida, following the 2014 season, he returned to Auburn as the defensive coordinator in 2015. That was his first déjà vu. Muschamp was the head coach at South Carolina from 2016 to 2020. The guy gets around.
Now that Michigan has lost out on Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham and Alabama’s Kellen DeBoer, who will the Wolverines go after next? Well, sources say Michigan is going after Utah coach Kyle Whittingham. Whittingham is stepping down at Utah after the Utes bowl game.
Roughly 55 college football players made $1 million or more this season. The 10 highest-paid college football players this past season were 1. Texas quarterback Arch Manning: $5.3M, 2. Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith: $4.2M, 3. Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood: $3.1M, 4. Miami quarterback Carson Beck: $3M, 5. Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza: $2.6M, 6. South Carolina quarterback LaNorris Sellers: $2.6M, 7. Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin: $2.5M, 8. Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia:$2.5M, 9. Ohio State safety Caleb Downs: $2.4M, and 10. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson: $2.3M. Ohio State had three $1 million-plus players in the top 10.
Happy Holidays.…Merry Christmas….Happy Hanukkah….Season’s Greetings
Touchdown Tom
December 22, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Review of the Last Three Bowl Games
The Bears didn’t come out of hibernation until the fourth quarter – (in the Xbox Bowl) – Arkansas State 34, Missouri State 28 (Touchdown Tom said: Missouri State 26, Arkansas State 24). Missouri State dominated the play on the field with more first downs, more total yards, more passing yards and a 19-minute edge in time of possession. But Arkansas State dominated the play in the end zone. The problem for Missouri State was turnovers. The Bears had two and the Red Wolves had none. Missouri State quarterback Jacob Clark passed for 349 yards and 4 touchdowns. Mo State receiver Dash Luke had 7 catches for 169 yards. Arkansas State receiver Corey Rucker had 6 catches for 166 yards. Neither team had a running game. Mo State rushed for 47 yards and Ark State rushed for 71 yards. Mo State was coached by interim coach Nick Petrino, as head coach Ryan Beard had left to become the coach of Coastal Carolina. Nick Petrino is the son of Bobby Petrino. Attendance in Frisco: 7,782
These Owls weren’t wise – (in the Myrtle Beach Bowl) – Western Michigan 41, Kennesaw State 7 (Touchdown Tom said: Kennesaw State 23, Western Michigan 22). You just knew this was going to turn out bad for Kennesaw State when just 7 minutes into the first quarter, Western Michigan scored its third touchdown and went up 21-0. It got worse. Just 7 minutes into the second quarter, WMU scored its fifth touchdown and went up 34-0. Less than two minutes into the third quarter, WMU scored its sixth touchdown and went up 41-0. The Broncos cooled their hoofs after that. WMU running back Jaden Buckley rushed for 174 yards and one touchdown. Kennesaw State running back Chase Belcher ran for 148 yards. The game was marred by six turnovers and 15 penalties. Kennesaw State suffered four of the turnovers. Attendance in Conway: 9,139
The most boring second half ever – (in the Gasparilla Bowl) – NC State 31, Memphis 7 (Touchdown Tom said: NC State 28, Memphis 27). In the first half, NC State came to play and Memphis didn’t. The Wolfpack led at halftime 31-7. In the second half, neither team came to play. For two quarters, NC State and Memphis put on the most boring display of football in the history of the sport. It was downright painful to watch. It was disgusting. Neither team scored in the second half and neither team acted like it wanted to score. After the half, Memphis was like, “Let’s take our money and get out of here.” NC State was like, “We’re pooped, we can’t do any more.” Attendance in Tampa: 13,336
Last Three Bowl Game Picks: 1 winner, 2 fumbles (33.3 percent)
Total Bowl Game Picks To Date: 3 winners, 4 fumbles (42.9 percent)
Review of the College Football Playoff Games (First Round)
Paybacks in Norman – Alabama 34, Oklahoma 24 (Touchdown Tom said: Alabama 24, Oklahoma 21). Oklahoma dominated the first quarter. The Sooners led the Tide 10-0 after one. But Alabama dominated the remaining three quarters – outscoring Oklahoma 17-7 in the second quarter and 10-0 in the third quarter. In the first quarter Oklahoma could do nothing wrong and Alabama could do nothing right. The Tide woke up in the second quarter and controlled the rest of the game. Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson was 18-29-0, passing for 232 yards and two touchdowns. Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer passed for 307 yards, but he also threw an interception. Neither team had a running game. That was no surprise. Alabama rushed for 28 yards and OU rushed for 55 yards. OU had a 7-minute edge in time of possession. Attendance in Norman: 83,550
The Canes were too windy for the Aggies – Miami 10, Texas A&M 3 (Touchdown Tom said: Texas A&M 27, Miami 26). For the entire first half, this game was a stalemate. The score at the break was 0-0. Miami broke the ice at the 10:34 mark in the third quarter, kicking a 21-yard field goal. The Canes went up 3-0. At the 8:03 mark in the fourth quarter, the Aggies evened the score, kicking a 35-yard field goal. The teams were tied, 3-3. With 1:44 remaining in the game, Miami all but secured its win. The Canes scored on a 11-yard touchdown pass from Carson Beck to Malachi Toney. Miami was up 10-3. The Aggies had 1:44 to score a touchdown, but Marcell Reed and the A&M offense were too discombobulated to score. The Aggies were hopeless. Reed threw his second interception. Miami running back Mark Fletcher rushed for 172 yards. Except for rushing yards, the Aggies dominated the stats. A&M even had a 7-minute edge in time of possession. But the Aggies had three turnovers. Miami had one. Attendance in College Station: 104,122
We don’t need no Kiffin – Ole Miss 41, Tulane 10 (Touchdown Tom said: Ole Miss 30, Tulane 24). Although there was no doubt about who was going to win, Tulane actually kept things reasonably decent in the first half. The Magnolias led the Green Wave at halftime, 17-3. But things quickly got out of hand in the second half, as Ole Miss scored 24 unanswered points. With about 11 minutes to go in the fourth quarter, Ole Miss led Tulane 41-3. Ole Miss quarterback Trinidad Chambliss was 23-29-0, passing for 282 yards and one touchdown. He ran for 36 yards and two touchdowns. Ole Miss receiver Deuce Alexander had 7 catches for 87 yards. Tulane quarterback Jake Retzlaff passed for 306 yards and one touchdown. Retzlaff also threw one interception. Tulane receiver Chazz Preston had 5 catches for 125 yards. The teams combined for 918 total yards. Ole Miss had 497 of those yards. Tulane had three turnovers and Ole Miss had one. Attendance in Oxford: 68,251
The Dukes were Quacked – Oregon 51, James Madison 34 (Touchdown Tom said: Oregon 28, James Madison 25). This game had no sooner started and the rout was on. JMU couldn’t keep the Ducks from scoring. Oregon led 34-6 at halftime. The second half was more interesting. JMU actually outscored the Ducks, 28-17. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore passed for 313 yards and four touchdowns. He also threw two interceptions. Oregon receiver Malik Benson had five catches for 119 yards. The teams combined for 1,023 yards. JMU had an 11-minute edge in time of possession. James Madison had 13 penalties for 113 yards. Attendance in Eugene: 55,124
First Round CFP Picks: 3 winners, 1fumble (75 percent)
Superlatives
Impressive Passers:
Missouri State’s Jacob Clark – 25-35-0 for 349 yards (4TDs).
Impressive Rushers:
Western Michigan’s Jaden Buckley – 174 yards (1TD); Miami’s Mark Fletcher – 172 yards; and Kennesaw State’s Chase Belcher – 148 yards.
FCS Semifinals
Montana State 48, Montana 23 – Attendance in Bozeman: 25,437
Illinois State 30, Villanova 14 – Attendance in Villanova: 4,133
Division II Championship
Ferris State 42, Harding 21 – Attendance in McKinney, Texas: 10,521
Division III Semifinals
Wisconsin-River Falls 48, Johns Hopkins 41 – Attendance in River Falls: 2,897
North Central 41, John Carroll 21 – Attendance in Naperville: 1,317
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for the Next Five Bowl Games
Washington State (6-6) vs. Utah State (6-6) – (Pac-2 vs. MWC) – Potato Bowl (Albertsons Stadium – Boise, Idaho) – 2 pm ET, Monday, ESPN – Washington State is between coaches. Jimmy Rogers left to become the Iowa State coach. New coach Kirby Moore will take over after the bowl game. This is the second-straight year that Washington State has lost its coach to another school. I hope Kirby stays a while. The Cougars are hurting on offense. They are one of the worst passing and rushing teams in the country. Utah State had a surprisingly good season. Picked to finish at the bottom of the MWC, the Aggies finished in the middle of the pack. They nearly beat Boise State, losing by 1 point. They nearly beat UNLV, losing by 3 points. The Aggies are led by quarterback Bryson Barnes. He passed for 2,687 yards. His favorite target was receiver Braden Pegan. Pegan had 60 catches for 926 yards. The Aggies are decent tin passing and rushing. Their weakness is defense. The Aggies win the French fires – Utah State 26, Washington State 25.
Toledo (8-4) vs. Louisville (8-4) – (MAC vs. ACC) – Boca Raton Bowl (Flagler Credit Union Stadium – Boca Raton, Florida) – 2 pm ET, Tuesday, ESPN – I was surprised Toledo didn’t win the MAC. The Rockets weren’t even in the MAC championship game. Early in the season, Toledo lost to MAC champion Western Michigan by 1 point. The Rockets are capable of giving Louisville a run for their money. Toledo comes into the game on a 4-game winning streak Toledo is quarterbacked by Tucker Gleason. He passed for 2,515 yards and 21 touchdowns. The Rockets have a good running back in Chip Trayanum. He rushed for 950 yards. Toledo’s best receiver is Junior Vandeross. He caught 75 passes for 947 yards. Louisville was having a great season until the Cardinals lost three straight games near the end of the season. Louisville is led by quarterback Miller Moss. He passed for 2,526 yards. His favorite target was receiver Chris Bell. Bell caught 72 passes for 917 yards. The Cardinals are suspect on defense. The Rockets are duds – Louisville 27, Toledo 21.
Western Kentucky (8-4) vs. Southern Miss (7-5) – (C-USA vs. Sun Belt) – New Orleans Bowl (Caesars Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana) – 5:30 pm ET, Tuesday, ESPN – Western Kentucky was a favorite to win Conference USA. But it didn’t happen. The Hilltoppers still had a good season. They came close to beating LSU, losing 13-10. WKU is driven by quarterback Maverick McIvor. He passed for 1,863 yards. The Hilltoppers’ best receiver is Mathew Henry. He caught 48 passes for 762 yards. Southern Miss was a surprising team this season. However, the Eagles come into this game on a three-game losing streak. Southern Miss is led by quarterback Braylon Braxton. He passed for 2,796 yards and 23 touchdowns. WKU has the better offense. Both are suspect on defense, but Southern Miss is more suspect. The Eagles can’t fly over the Hill Top – Western Kentucky 28, Southern Miss 26.
UNLV (10-3) vs. Ohio (8-4) – (MWC vs. MAC) – Frisco Bowl (Ford Center – Frisco, Texas) – 9 pm ET, Tuesday, ESPN – Ohio will be playing under an interim coach. Head coach Brian Smith was fired for cause earlier this week due to inappropriate behavior. The Bobcats have a strong running game – 9th in the country, averaging 229 yards a game. Ohio is quarterbacked by Parker Navarro. He passed for 2,232 yards. Navarro is a contributor to the running game as well. Running back Sieh Bangura rushed for 1,243 yards. The Bobcats’ top receiver is Chase Hendricks. He had 67 catches for 950 yards. Ohio has a stable offense and a so-so defense. UNLV played for the MWC championship but lost to Boise State. The Rebels have a strong offense – passing and running. The Rebels are led by quarterback Anthony Colandrea. He passed for 3,275 yards and 23 touchdowns. His favorite target was receiver Jaden Bradley. He had 54 catches for 869 yards. Running back Jai’Den Thomas rushed for 985 yards. UNLV’s problem is its defense – one of the worst in the country. The Rebels yell – UNLV 31, Ohio 29.
California (7-5) vs. Hawaii (8-4) – (ACC vs. MWC) – Hawaii Bowl (Ching Athletics Complex – Honolulu, Hawaii) – 8 pm ET, Wednesday, ESPN – California had a couple of surprising wins this season – beating Louisville at Louisville and beating SMU. Against Hawaii, the Golden Bears will be playing under an interim coach. Head coach Justin Wilcox was fired a few weeks ago. The Bears have, who some say, the best freshman quarterback in the country. Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele passed for 3,117 yards. His favorite target was receiver Jacob De Jesus. He caught 99 passes for 892 yards. Cal is a good passing team. But the Bears are absolutely the worst rushing team in the country – averaging 77 yards a game. Cal’s defense can be bad. Hawaii was one of the best passing teams in the country (10th) and one of the worst rushing teams (127th). The Rainbow Warriors are led by quarterback Micah Alejado. He passed for 2,832 yards and 21 touchdowns. His favorite target was receiver Jackson Harris. Harris had 49 catches for 963 yards. Hawaii has the advantage of playing on its home field. Bears can’t hula – Hawaii 28, California 24.
Quotes of the Week
“They pipe in noise. Guaranteed. They pipe in noise. It’s a huge advantage when they play at home, especially for their defense. I used to complain to the SEC league office about their piped-in crowd noise,” former Alabama coach Nick Saban, on the piped-in noise at Texas A&M’s Kyle field.
“I’m in the transfer portal,” Utah coach Kyle Whittingham, who is stepping down after the Utes’ bowl game.
“Football used to be about honor, team and tradition. Now it’s about who can pay the most. If we keep going down this road, we’ll turn a game of pride into a business of greed,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule.
“We always say the game will come back to you if you keep working, keep fighting. Just keep chipping away,” Alabama coach Kellen DeBoer, after the Oklahoma game.
“Don’t write checks you can’t cash,” Miami defensive end Rueben Bain to Texas A&M.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next CFW – Week 18 Results/Forecast – will be posted on Thursday morning, Christmas Day.
As a reminder, CFW – What Year Was It? – will be posted on Saturday morning, December 27. It’s our annual Holiday bonus. I provide the music, the news events and the college football happenings of a given year. You guess the year.
