CFW Week 5 Forecast – Notre Dame out for revenge
Georgia-Alabama: Gonna be a donnybrook
The first football game between Georgia and Alabama was played in 1895. Georgia won that game, 30-6. Seventy-three games and 129 years later, Alabama leads the series 43-26-4. The Crimson Tide has won 11 of the last 15 games, and eight of the last nine games.
The two schools played annually from 1919 to 1930 and from 1944 to 1965. They played intermittently in the other years. In 2012, 2018, 2021 and 2023 Georgia and Alabama met in the SEC championship game. Alabama won all four of those games. Three of those four games were decided by seven points or less.
After the 2017 and 2021 seasons, Georgia and Alabama met in the national championship game. They split those meetings. Alabama won the first one in overtime – 26-23 (OT). Georgia won the second one by 15 points – 33-18. That Georgia victory for the national championship came just 37 days after Alabama had defeated Georgia, 41-24, in the SEC championship game.
In eight of the last nine games between the two schools, Georgia and Alabama were both ranked in the Top 10. The lone exception was in 2015 when Alabama was ranked 13th and Georgia was 8th. Alabama won that game, 38-10.
Saturday evening, in Tuscaloosa, No. 2 Georgia (3-0) will meet No. 4 Alabama (3-0) for the 74th time. And for the ninth time in the last 10 meetings, Georgia and Alabama are both ranked in the Top 10.
There are four interesting games in the Big Ten this weekend. Perhaps the best of the four is Illinois (4-0) at Penn State (4-0). Who can forget the last time Illinois played at Penn State? That was 2021. The Nittany Lions were favored by 24 points. That game went to nine overtimes. Illinois won, 20-18 (9OT).
Indiana (4-0) is off to a great start. Saturday, the Hoosiers host Maryland (3-1). A 5-0 Indiana is almost unthinkable. But think it.
Washington (3-1) travels to Rutgers (3-0). Looks like Rutgers could be making a statement this year.
The fourth interesting game in the Big Ten is Ohio State (3-0) at Michigan State (3-1). Yes, the Buckeyes are heavily favored. But to date, Ohio State has played three cupcakes. Will the Spartans provide a challenge?
Can Louisville (3-0) surprise Notre Dame (3-1) again this year? Last year, the Cardinals upset the Irish, 33-20. Notre Dame will be out for revenge.
The best game in the Big 12 this weekend takes place in Orlando – Colorado (3-1) visits UCF (3-0). Are the Knights for real? Will the Gus Bus be rolling? Or will it be Prime Time for the Buffaloes? The second-best game in the Big 12 is Oklahoma State (3-1) at Kansas State (3-1). Both teams suffered their first loss last weekend. Both will be out for redemption.
The best game between two Group of Five teams takes place in Las Vegas – Fresno State (3-1) at UNLV (3-0). Both teams are riding a three-game winning streak. But on Tuesday of this week, UNLV quarterback Matthew Sluka quit the team. Sluka claims he wasn’t paid the money UNLV promised him when he transferred.
The second-best game between two Group of Five teams takes place in Texas – Texas State (2-1) at Sam Houston (3-1).
The ACC has two interesting affairs this weekend. The first one is North Carolina (3-1) at Duke (4-0). The Tar Heels’ offense scored 50 points last week. But their defense gave up 70 points. Can North Carolina rebound? Or will the Dookies remain undefeated?
The second interesting affair in the ACC pits our old friend Florida State (1-3) on the road against SMU (3-1). FSU won its first game last week. Will it be two in a row for the Noles? Or will Mike Norvell get run over by a Mustang?
The best game between a Power Four team and a Group of Five team takes place in Boise, Idaho – Washington State (4-0) is on the blue carpet against Boise State (2-1). Last week the Cougars beat San Jose State in a thriller, 54-52 (2OT). The score could be similar in this game. Maybe in reverse? Washington State may be out of gas.
The second-best game between a Group of Five and a Power Four team is Western Kentucky (3-1) at Boston College (3-1). The Hilltoppers are on a three-game winning streak. The Eagles are coming off a close win over Michigan State. This one could be interesting.
That’s your lineup for the big games in Week Five. Sounds like a weekend full of wild games to me. I think you are going to need plenty of chili dogs, cold pizza and your favorite beverage.
ESPN’s College GameDay is in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, for the Georgia-Alabama game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff is in Orlando, Florida, for the Colorado-UCF game. The SEC Network’s SEC Nation is in Auburn, Alabama, for the Oklahoma-Auburn game.
Enjoy!
Touchdown Tom
September 26, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Five’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. Georgia (3-0) at Alabama (3-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – They say Alabama has the better offense and Georgia has the better defense. Alabama is definitely the better rushing team. The Tide is averaging 236 yards a game on the ground. The Dawgs are only averaging 146 yards a game rushing. That is a significant difference. The Dawgs, however, have played two Power Four teams and one cupcake. The Tide have played one Power Four team and two cupcakes. Passing, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has been consistent. In each of the three games, he has passed for 196 yards, 199 yards and 200 yards. That’s consistency. Milroe has completed 70.5% of his passes. Georgia quarterback Connor Beck has passed for more yards at 680. But Beck had a terrible game against Kentucky two weeks ago. He has completed 68.1% of his throws. On defense, Georgia is the king, but Bama isn’t bad. The Dawgs are holding opponents to 6 points a game. The Tide are holding opponents to 8.7 points a game. They say games are won on defense. That’s true. But when the defenses are similar, the offense makes the difference. Uga gets bathed in Tide – Alabama 21, Georgia 20.
RUNNER-UP: 2. Illinois (4-0) at Penn State (3-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – Illinois may keep this game close, but Penn State’s offense and defense is the better of the two. The Banned Indians are a little below average on offense and a little above average on defense. The Nittany Lions are good on both. Illinois quarterback Luke Altmyer has been a pleasant surprise this year for the Banned Indians. The Starkville, Mississippi, native has stepped up and played better than expected. Still, the Penn State defense will be a challenge for him. Will the Illinois defense be a challenge for the Nittany Lions? One thing is for certain. This game won’t end in nine overtimes. The Lions make Bielema a believer – Penn State 30, Illinois 25.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. Louisville (3-0) at Notre Dame (3-1) – (ACC vs. Ind.) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, Peacock – You gotta believe Notre Dame has had this game underlined, asterisked, highlighted, etc. etc. Last year, Louisville embarrassed the Irish big time. It’s time for paybacks. Notre Dame can’t afford to lose another game. If the Irish do, the CFP is out of reach. Win out and Notre Dame most likely will make the CFP. Still, Louisville won’t be easy. The Cards are playing good offense and good defense. Quarterback Tyler Shough has passed for 850 yards. Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard has been a little disappointing. The Fairhope, Alabama, native needs to have a breakout game. Irish keep their CFP hopes alive – Notre Dame 30, Louisville 23.
4. Maryland (3-1) at Indiana (4-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, BTN – This Indiana team is amazing. They are playing good offense (50.5 points a game) and good defense (9.2 points a game). Granted, three of their four opponents have been cupcakes. But the Hoosiers looked good, beating UCLA, 42-13, in Pasadena. Indiana quarterback Kurtis Rourke has completed 76.6% of his passes. The Canadian from Ontario has thrown for 1,013 yards. Maryland quarterback Billy Edwards isn’t shabby either. He has passed for 1,155 yards, completing 75.8% of his passes. This will be a tough game for both teams. The Hoosiers feast on Turtle soup – Indiana 28, Maryland 24.
5. Colorado (3-1) at UCF (3-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – This is a big game for UCF, with Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter and Coach Prime coming to town. The weakest part of UCF’s offense is its passing game. I have to say quarterback K.J. Jefferson has been a disappointment so far. He needs a breakout game, and this could be it. The strength of the Knights’ offense has been the running of R.J. Harvey. The weakest part of UCF’s defense is defending the pass. With Sanders quarterbacking Colorado, that is a problem for UCF – a big problem. Sanders has passed for 1,340 yards, averaging 335 yards a game. He’s completed 67.9% of his passes. To the Knights’ advantage, Colorado is only averaging 69 yards a game on the ground. And the Buffs’ defense is weak. This could be a wild one. Fun times for the Knights in the Bounce House – UCF 35, Colorado 31.
6. Fresno State (3-1) at UNLV (3-0) – (MWC vs. MWC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – Stunning news for UNLV – Just two days ago starting quarterback Matthew Sluka quit the team and is leaving the program. Sluka, who transferred to UNLV from Holy Cross during the offseason, said UNLV was not upholding promises that were made to him. He said that UNLV promised him $100,000. After three games, he had not been paid. Sluka had primarily been a good running quarterback for the Rebels. He was weak on passing, failing to complete 50% of his passes in three games this season. Still, the Rebels have been winning. Another transfer quarterback, Majj-Malik Williams, will now quarterback the Rebels against Fresno State. Much of UNLV’s success has been the play of its defense. The Rebels’ defense isn’t great, but it is good. Last year, UNLV lost this game by seven points in Fresno. That gives the Rebels the incentive to win it this year. But they will have a new quarterback against Fresno State. Other than the season opening loss to Michigan, Fresno State has played well this season. And the Bulldogs were only trailing Michigan 16-10 with less than six minutes to go in the fourth quarter. Fresno State has an outstanding quarterback in Mikey Keene. The Chandler, Arizona, native has passed for 1,040 yards. The Bulldogs have no running game. On defense, Fresno State is below average. The Rebels slot ’em – UNLV 30, Fresno State 27.
7. Washington (3-1) at Rutgers (3-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 8 pm ET, Friday, FOX – The Scarlet Knights are off to a good start. They hope to make the start even better on Saturday. Rutgers has a well-balanced offense – running (256 yards a game) and passing (215 yards a game). Running back Kyle Monangai is averaging 153.3 yards a game. On defense, Rutgers has been good, except for defending the run. The run defense has not been good. Washington is below average on offense, but extremely strong on defense. The Huskies will give the Rutgers offense a stern test. Washington is holding opponents to 10 points a game. Washington quarterback Will Rogers has passed for 1,048 yards. He has completed 75.8% of his passes. Rogers will give the Rutgers defense a test. The Huskies can’t penetrate the Knights’ armor – Rutgers 28, Washington 21.
8. Ohio State (3-0) at Michigan State (3-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, Peacock – This game should give us a truer picture of just how good Ohio State is. The Buckeyes are 3-0, but the competition has been three cupcakes – soft cupcakes. Michigan State is not a CFP contender. But the Spartans aren’t cupcakes either. Michigan State is not good on offense. However, on defense, the Spartans are good. Under first-year coach Jonathan Smith, the Spartans are competitive. Just how competitive, we’ll find out Saturday. Ohio State has a strong, well-balanced offense – running (241 yards a game) and passing (311 yards a game). The running is provided by Quinshon Jenkins and the passing is provided by Will Howard. Both were offseason transfers into Ohio State. The Buckeyes’ defense is one of the best in the country, holding opponents to 6.7 points per game. Spartans can’t crack the Buckeyes – Ohio State 31, Michigan State 19.
9. Washington State (4-0) at Boise State (2-1) – (Pac-2 vs. MWC) – 10 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – You can tell by the scores that both Boise State and Washington State play good offense and lousy defense. Boise State beat Georgia Southern, 56-45, and lost to Oregon, 37-34. Washington State beat Portland State, 70-30 and beat San Jose State, 54-52 (2OT). Both teams are very strong on offense. Boise State is the better of the two on defense. Boise State’s offense is well balanced – running (311 yards per game) and passing (232 yards per game). Boise State’s running back, Ashton Jeanty, comes from Jacksonville, Florida. Jeanty has rushed for 586 yards in three games. Washington State has a running and passing quarterback – John Mateer. The Little Elm, Texas, native has passed for 1,102 yards and rushed for 425 yards in four games. The Cougars are well balanced on offense too – running (225 yards a game) and passing (291 yards a game). But Washington State does have one of the worst defenses in the country. The Broncos are too wild for the Cougars – Boise State 35, Washington State 32.
10. North Carolina (3-1) at Duke (4-0) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – The Dookies are off to a 4-0 start. If they make it to 5-0, it will probably be the defense that gets them there. Except for the passing of Maalik Murphy, the Duke offense is not that good. A native of Inglewood, California, Maalik has passed for 1,016 yards, completing 64.4% of his throws. Duke’s defense is pretty sound. North Carolina has an okay offense with a weak defense. The Tar Heels began the season losing their starting quarterback to injury. They are now on their third quarterback – Jacolby Criswell. He passed for 475 yards in UNC’s 70-50 loss to James Madison. The best part of North Carolina’s offense is running back Omarion Hampton. He is good but hasn’t been at his best yet. Maybe he will have a breakout game against Duke. It will be interesting to see how the Tar Heels respond to the loss to James Madison. The Devil has his blue dress on – Duke 31, North Carolina 30.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
Nebraska (3-1) at Purdue (1-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, Peacock – After the setback in Lincoln last week, Nebraska should get back on track this week in West Lafayette. The way Purdue has been playing, it doesn’t take a lot to beat the Boilers. Nebraska’s defense is basically good – it’s strong, solid and stable. It’s the Nebraska offense that needs some work – maybe a lot of work. There is some good news on offense. That would be at the quarterback position. Buford, Georgia, native Dylan Raiola is performing well for a first-year freshman. Raiola has passed for 967 yards in four games. He has completed 72.4% of his passes. He should improve each week. As Raiola improves so should the rest of the offense. Purdue, on the other hand, appears to be downright hapless. The Boilers are bad on offense and defense. The defense is giving up 35 points a game. Quarterback Hudson Card has been disappointing. Herbie cools the Boilers – Nebraska 34, Purdue 17.
Mississippi State (1-3) at Texas (4-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 4:15 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – Texas has completed its four-game nonconference schedule. Now the Longhorns are ready to start their SEC play. The schedulers were kind to Texas. Mississippi State is the perfect opponent for easing into SEC competition. Miss State is the Purdue of the SEC. What was the only bright spot for the Bulldogs is no longer bright. Quarterback Blake Shapen was injured in last week’s game against Florida and is out for the season. Shapen had passed for 974 yards in four games. Freshman Michael Van Buren will be the starting quarterback against Texas. Miss State’s defense is one of the worst in the country. Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers is still on the mend. Arch Manning will be quarterbacking again this week. Manning benefits from having a good offense and defense around him. On defense Texas is holding opponents to 5.5 points a game. Bevo bullies Bully – Texas 49, Mississippi State 20.
ELSEWHERE A ROUBND FLORIDA:
South Florida (2-2) at Tulane (2-2) – (AAC vs. AAC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPNU….
West Florida (1-1) at Grand Valley State (3-0) – (Gulf South vs. Great Lakes) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Alabama State (1-2) at Bethune-Cookman (0-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday….
Wagner (2-2) at Florida Atlantic (1-3) – (Northeast vs. AAC) – 6 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Louisiana Tech (1-2) at FIU (1-3) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 6 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Florida State (1-3) at SMU (3-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ACCN….
Quotes of the Week
“What I fear is there’s only gonna be like three or four male sports and five or six women’s sports and that’s it,” former Florida State and Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher on what paying the athletes will do to college sports.
“Here’s what bothers me. No one has stepped up and wants to do what’s right for college football. There needs to be a commissioner,” former Florida State and Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, on the changes in college football doing damage to the sport.
“Jimbo Fisher’s beliefs are common among coaches, though few share their issues to the public out of fear of ridicule,” CBS Sports college football columnist/analyst Brandon Marcello.
Touchdown Tom
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