CFW Week 16 Results/17 Forecast – Venables, Cristobal and Napier
Amidst rain, false starts and a first,
the bowls are off and running
The skies were clear and blue in Conway, the rain was non-stop in Orlando, the skies were clear but the air was chilly in Albuquerque and Shreveport, and it didn’t matter in New Orleans and Los Angeles – the fans were indoors.
A freshman, getting his first start, rushed for four touchdowns and caught a pass for a fifth in Conway. In the first half alone, 1.61 inches of rain fell in Orlando. A school playing in its first bowl game won the game in New Orleans. A team racked up 500 total yards in Albuquerque. There were 12 false start penalties in Los Angeles, and the first play of the game rendered a 25-yard touchdown pass in Shreveport.
College football’s bowl season is underway. It began Saturday with six games – 13 hours of football from 11 a.m. ET to 12 midnight ET. If you missed them, don’t worry, there are 35 more bowls to go. But, if you saw them, each game was unique – in its own way.
The Myrtle Beach Bowl in Conway, South Carolina, had the distinct honor of kicking off the bowl season. Ohio downed Georgia Southern, 41-21. Due to the number one and the number two running backs entering the transfer portal, Ohio freshman Rickey Hunt got his first start Saturday. No problem, Hunt rushed for 115 yards and four touchdowns. And if that wasn’t enough, he caught a pass for a fifth touchdown.
In Orlando, Florida, the rain was non-stop during the Cure Bowl. The visibility wasn’t the best either. But Appalachian State defied the weather. App State beat Miami (Ohio) 13-9.
Before Saturday, Jacksonville State had never been to a bowl before. Well, now Jax State has not only been to a bowl, but also, the Gamecocks have won their first bowl game. But it took an overtime for them to do it. In the New Orleans Bowl, Jacksonville State conquered Louisiana, 34-31 (OT).
Coming into the New Mexico Bowl, Fresno State was a down team. The Bulldogs had lost three-straight games. Saturday, Fresno State was the hot team. In Albuquerque, the Bulldogs racked up 500 total yards, beating New Mexico State, 37-14.
In the LA Bowl in Los Angeles, would you believe there were 12 false start penalties? Well, there were. And UCLA had eight of those 12 false starts. Still, the Bruins managed to beat Boise State, 35-22.
And finally, in Shreveport, Louisiana, California scored a touchdown on the first offensive play of the game in the Independence Bowl. Cal quarterback Fernando Mendoza threw a 25-yard dart to Monroe Young. With only 15 seconds gone in the game, the Bears were up 7-0. However, that was about all she wrote for Cal. Texas Tech topped California, 34-14.
Following a one-day break yesterday, the bowl marathon resumes today with Western Kentucky versus Old Dominion in the Toastery Bowl. How’s that for buttering your toast?
A tale of three coaches. Back during preseason when I was writing about the new coaches, the coaches on the hot seat, the key players in each position, etc., I identified three coaches, all entering their second season. All, entering the season, under a microscope. An intense microscope. They were going to be scrutinized. Examined with a fine-tooth comb. These coaches weren’t new and weren’t on the hot seat. Not yet.
I wrote:
“Then there are three coaches who aren’t on the hot seat, yet, but they are definitely on the warm seat. All three are in similar situations. They debuted last year and are in their second year at their respective schools this season. There were high expectations for each of them last season. A lot was expected. But the high expectations ended in disappointment.”
I was talking about Oklahoma’s Brent Venables, Miami’s Mario Cristobal and Florida’s Billy Napier.
In his first season with the Sooners (2022) Brent Venables finished 6-7. Oklahoma was ranked 9th in the preseason polls. The Sooners finished the season nowhere near the Top 25. Oklahoma was predicted to win the Big 12. Instead, they finished 7th in the conference. Even more disappointing, the Sooners’ defense was one of the worst in the country. And Venables had a reputation for being a defensive genius.
As the 2022 season began, Miami was ranked 16th in the preseason polls. Like Oklahoma, when the season was over, Miami was nowhere near the Top 25. The Canes were supposed to win the Coastal Division of the ACC and play for the conference championship. Miami finished 5th in the ACC Coastal Division. In Mario Cristobal’s first season, the Canes finished with a 5-7 record. They even lost at home to Middle Tennessee.
Florida fans new that 2022 would be a bit of a challenge. Still, they had high hopes for first-year coach Billy Napier. Florida was ranked just outside the Top 25. The Gators were considered a dark horse in the SEC East Division. When the season was over, Florida wasn’t even close to being just outside the Top 25. The Gators were 6-6, including a loss to Vanderbilt. And to make matters worse, Florida lost 30-3 to Oregon State in the Las Vegas Bowl.
So, how did the 2023 season turn out for the three coaches? Well, one of the coaches made a complete turnaround – from bad to good. One of the coaches made a slight improvement. And one of the coaches was no better, a little worse, than his first season.
At Oklahoma, Brent Venables went from 6-7 to 10-2. The Sooners were the only team to beat Texas. OU finished 3rd in the Big 12. The Sooners finished 12th in the final CFP rankings. And OU’s defense played much better in 2023. Venables turned it around in Norman. But now Oklahoma goes from the Big 12 to the SEC. Venables may be facing a bigger challenge next season.
At Miami, Mario Cristobal went from 5-7 to 7-5. Miami beat Clemson, 28-20. There were no embarrassing losses. Cristobal made a slight improvement. Still, there is room for more improvement. On the plus side, the recruiting continues to go well for Cristobal and Miami.
At Florida, Billy Napier went from 6-7 to 5-7. The Gators failed to become bowl eligible. There was an embarrassing loss to Arkansas. Napier did not improve in his second season in Gainesville. More than 10 of his players have entered the transfer portal, including running back Trevor Etienne. Some of his commitments have decommitted. Napier needs to hold on to his recruiting class. Florida’s opening game in 2024 is against Miami (Florida). Napier will definitely enter the 2024 season on the hot seat – a very hot seat.
Murderers Row – The 2024 football schedules for the 16 members of the SEC were released by the conference last week. Florida will finish out its season against Georgia, at Texas, LSU, Ole Miss and at Florida State. The first half of the season includes Miami (Florida), Texas A&M, UCF and at Tennessee. Billy Napier might as well resign now.
In a conversation last week, ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit recalled the 2000 season when Florida State was chosen over Miami to play in the BCS championship game. Both teams only had one loss. Florida State’s one loss was to Miami. The Canes beat the Noles during the season. Oklahoma was 1st in the AP and Coaches polls, Miami was 2nd and Florida State was 3rd. Yet, FSU was chosen by the BCS committee to play Oklahoma in the title game. Oklahoma beat Florida State 13-2. Calling the FSU fans lunatics, Herbstreit went on to say that the Miami fans were angry in 2000, but they didn’t act anything like the FSU fans did this year. So, I guess what goes around comes around. It all evens out in the end.
During a press conference prior to the LA Bowl, UCLA coach Chip Kelly promoted an idea I wrote about earlier this season. Kelly didn’t talk about relegation, but he did say that college football teams should not be in a conference. “They all should be independent.” Like I wrote, Kelly said that each college should be in a regional (geographically concentrated) conference for all of its other sports – basketball and the Olympic sports. But football is unique and football teams should not be in a conference. Basically, Kelly said there should be one Power Five conference and one Group of Five conference for football.
Former Mississippi State quarterback Will Rogers has transferred to Washington. Former Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord is transferring to Syracuse. Former Washington State quarterback Cam Ward has his eyes on Miami (Florida) and Florida State. Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson has entered the transfer portal. Penn State coach James Franklin is hiring former Indiana head coach Tom Allen to be the new defensive coordinator for the Nittany Lions. Allen, who was fired at Indiana, replaces Manny Diaz, who left Penn State to become the head coach at Duke.
Happy Holidays………………Merry Christmas……………Season’s Greetings
Touchdown Tom
December 18, 2023
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Review of the First Week of Bowl Games
Bobcats purr (in the Myrtle Beach Bowl) – Ohio 41, Georgia Southern 21 (Touchdown Tom said: Ohio 21, Georgia Southern 20). Ohio got off to a hot start. The Bobcats had leads of 20-0 at halftime and 34-7 late in the third quarter. Georgia Southern rallied and the score was 34-21 early in the fourth quarter. However, Ohio secured its victory, scoring a final touchdown with 2:52 on the clock. Georgia Southern quarterback Davis Brin threw three interceptions. In all, the Eagles had five turnovers. Ohio had none. Georgia Southern was the passing team – 350 yards. Ohio was the running team – 232 yards. The Eagles only had 33 yards rushing. Ohio ends its season at 10-3. Attendance in Conway: 8,059
Gamecocks take the ragin’ out of the Cajun (in the New Orleans Bowl) – Jacksonville State 34, Louisiana 31 (OT) (Touchdown Tom said: Jacksonville State 27, Louisiana 24). This was a close contest throughout. The game was tied four times. No team ever led by more than seven points. In spite of four turnovers, Jax State had 31 first downs to 14 for Louisiana, and 526 total yards to 247 for Louisiana. The Cajuns had no turnovers. Jacksonville State ends its season at 9-4. Attendance in New Orleans: 14,585
RedHawks get waterlogged (in the Cure Bowl) – Appalachian State 13, Miami (Ohio) 9 (Touchdown Tom said: Appalachian State 20, Miami 18). This was like playing football in a swimming pool. The rain was relentless. There were several large puddles of water on the field. The first half was a field goal battle. App State had two and Miami had one. Each team got a touchdown in the second half. Miami running back Rashad Amos rushed for 180 yards. Miami only had 44 yards passing. Each team had three turnovers. Appalachian State ends its season at 9-5. Attendance in Orlando: 11,121
Bulldogs bite (in the New Mexico Bowl) – Fresno State 37, New Mexico State 10 (Touchdown Tom said: New Mexico State 28, Fresno State 25). New Mexico State couldn’t get started. Fresno State built up a 20-3 lead early in the third quarter. The Aggies did make a game of it late in the third quarter. A 14-yard touchdown run by quarterback Diego Pavia made the score 20-10. But that was it. Fresno State went on to score 17 unanswered points. Fresno State quarterback Mikey Keene passed for 380 yards and three touchdowns. He completed 80% of his passes. New Mexico State only had 58 yards passing. Fresno State ends its season at 9-4. Attendance in Albuquerque: 30,822
Bruins turn Broncos into ruins (in the LA Bowl) – UCLA 35, Boise State 22 (Touchdown Tom said: Boise State 21, UCLA 20). The first half of this game was all Boise State. The Broncos led at halftime, 16-7. They dominated the first half. I don’t know what was said at halftime, but UCLA came out a totally different team in the second half. The Bruins scored 28 unanswered points. UCLA led 35-16. Coming off the bench in the second half, UCLA quarterback Ethan Garbers was 9-for-12, passing for 152 yards and two touchdowns. The Bruins ended with 510 total yards. UCLA ends its season at 8-5. Attendance in Los Angeles: 32,780
The Bears were bare (in the Independence Bowl) – Texas Tech 34, California 14 (Touchdown Tom said: Texas Tech 27, California 24). For one quarter, this was a good ballgame. California led 14-7 at the end of the first quarter. But the Bears would never score again. Texas Tech went on to score 27 unanswered points. Tech quarterback Behren Morton passed for 256 yards and three touchdowns. Cal had four turnovers. Tech had two. The Bears only had 72 yards rushing. Texas Tech ends its season at 7-6. Attendance in Shreveport: 33,071
First Six Bowl Game Picks: 4 winners, 2 fumbles (66.7 percent)
Superlatives
Impressive Passers:
Fresno State’s Mikey Keene – 31-39-1-380 (3TDs); Texas Tech’s Behren Morton – 27-43-1-256 (3TDs), and UCLA’s Ethan Garbers – 9-12-0-152 (2TDs).
Impressive Rushers:
Miami of Ohio’s Rashad Amos – 180 yards (1TD); Boise State’s George Holani – 138 yards (2TDs); UCLA’s Collin Schlee – 127 yards, and Jacksonville State’s Ron Wiggins – 126 yards (1TD).
Weekend Recap
FCS (Division I-AA) Semifinals
South Dakota State 59, UAlbany 0 – Attendance in Brookings: 12,265
Montana 31, North Dakota State 29 (2OT) – Attendance in Missoula: 26,544
Celebration Bowl
Florida A&M 30, Howard 26 – Attendance in Atlanta: 41,108
Division II Championship
Harding 38, Colorado Mines 7 – Attendance in McKinney – 12,552
Division III Championship
Cortland 38, North Central 37 – Attendance in Salem: 3,381
Quotes of the Week
“It’s supposed to be the four best teams – not the four most deserving teams. Alabama is better. Period! So is Texas. So is Michigan and so is Washington. So is Oregon. So is Georgia. So is Ohio State,” ESPN’s Kirk Herbstreit to Florida State fans.
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for The Next Two Bowl Games
Western Kentucky (7-5) vs Old Dominion (6-6) – (C-USA vs. Sun Belt) – Toastery Bowl (Jerry Richardson Stadium – Charlotte, North Carolina) – 2:30 pm ET, Monday, ESPN – Actually, this is the Bahamas Bowl. However, the stadium in Nassau that holds the bowl is under remodeling, refurbishing and reconstruction. Let’s just say it is under “re.” So, the Bahamas Bowl had to be held somewhere else. That somewhere else turned out to be Charlotte, as in North Carolina. With the bowl in Charlotte, you can’t call it the Bahamas Bowl. How about the Toastery Bowl? When I saw Toastery, I thought it must be a place where you can get your toast one hundred different ways. As it turns out, I wasn’t wrong. The Toastery, actually Famous Toastery, is a chain of breakfast, brunch and lunch places around Charlotte. Western Kentucky is an all passing, no running team. As quarterback Austin Reed goes, so go the Hilltoppers. WKU has no defense. Old Dominion was an up-and-down team all season. And the Monarchs are a very average team, nothing really good, nothing really bad. Both teams are on a two-game winning streak. Make it three for ODU. The Monarchs butter the Hilltoppers’ toast – Old Dominion 25, Western Kentucky 22.
UTSA (8-4) vs. Marshall (6-6) – (AAC vs. Sun Belt) – Frisco Bowl (Toyota Stadium – Frisco, Texas) – 9 pm ET, Tuesday, ESPN – UTSA got off to a rough start this season. After four games, the Roadrunners were 1-3. Then they won seven-straight games. If quarterback Frank Harris is on, UTSA is tough. Harris is the key. The Roadrunners average 32 points a game. Conversely, Marshall got off to a good start. After four games, the Herd were 4-0. Then Marshall lost five-straight games. The Herd finished in last place in the Sun Belt East Division. Going into the final game, there was talk of firing head coach Charles Huff. But Marshall won that game and Huff’s jib was saved. The running of Rasheen Ali is key to the Herd’s performance. But Marshall’s defense is weak – giving up 28 points a game. Beep Beep scatters the Herd – UTSA 30, Marshall 20.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
P.S.
Not exactly college football related, but during the pre-Christmas days of December, as college football fans were drinking eggnog and eating fruitcake, with visions of what ifs, bowl games and Santa Claus dancing in their heads, the number one song in the country…
…80 years ago, this week in 1943, was “Paper Doll: by The Mills Brothers
…75 years ago, this week in 1948, was “Buttons And Bows” by Dinah Shore
…70 years ago, this week in 1953, was “Rags To Riches” by Tony Bennett
…65 years ago, this week in 1958, was “To Know Him Is To Love Him” by The Teddy Bears, and “The Chipmunk Song (Christmas Don’t Be Late)” by The Chipmunks with David Seville
…60 years ago, this week in 1963, was “Dominique” by The Singing Nun
…55 years ago, this week in 1968, was “I Heard It Through The Grapevine” by Marvin Gay
…50 years ago, this week in 1973, was “The Most Beautiful Girl” by Charlie Rich
…45 years ago, this week in 1978, was “You Don’t Bring Me Flowers” by Barbra Streisand and Neil Diamond, and “Le Freak” by Chic.
…40 years ago, this week in 1983, was “Say Say Say” by Paul McCartney and Michael Jackson
…35 years ago, this week in 1988, was “Look Away” by Chicago, and “Every Rose Has Its Thorn” by Poison
…30 years ago, this week in 1993, was “Again” by Janet Jackson, and “Hero” by Mariah Carey
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