CFW Week 16 Forecast - The Bowls Begin

 CFW Week 16 Forecast – The Bowls Begin

How did the first-year coaches do?

 

And is Florida State joining the Big Ten?

 

This past season, 25 schools were playing under first-year coaches. College football is generally not kind to first-year coaches. This season was no exception. Of the 25 coaches, only three had good to excellent seasons. Eleven had bad to miserable seasons. The other 11 had so-so seasons.

 

The best first-year coach by far was Liberty’s Jamie Chadwell. Chadwell finished the season at 13-0. Liberty finished the season as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. The Flames are playing Oregon in the Fiesta Bowl – a New Year’s Six bowl.

 

As a first-year coach, Chadwell was fortunate to have quarterback Kaidon Salter and running back Quinton Cooley. Salter was the Jayden Daniels of Group of Five quarterbacks. He passed for 2,750 yards and rushed for 1,064 yards. Salter passed for 31 touchdowns and completed 61% of his throws. Cooley rushed for 1,322 yards. Any first-year coach would be happy to have that duo.

 

I suspect Chadwell will be a head coach at a Power Five school before long.

 

The other two coaches who did well were Louisville’s Jeff Brohm and UNLV’s Barry Odom. In his first year, Brohm coached the Cardinals to a 10-3 record and second place in the ACC. Odom, a former head coach at Missouri, coached UNLV to a 9-4 record. The Rebels were 5-7 last year.

 

The best of the so-so coaches was Northwestern’s David Braun (7-5), Coastal Carolina’s Tim Beck (7-5), Wisconsin’s Luke Fickell (7-5) and Texas State’s G.J. Kinne (7-5). Braun transformed Northwestern from a 1-11 team last year to 7-5 this year. He had little time to prepare too. Braun became the coach of Northwestern – an interim coach at that – in July. He was made the full-time head coach in November.

 

Beck took over a 9-4 (2022) Coastal Carolina team and went 7-5. Not a step in the right direction, but not bad. Fickell acquired a 7-6 (2022) Wisconsin team and held steady at 7-5. However, the Badgers were predicted to be 9-4 this season. Kinne made major strides at Texas State. The Bobcats were 4-8 in 2022. He has Texas State in a bowl game in his first season.

 

Three first-year coaches broke even in 2023 – all going 6-6. But all were improvements over the previous season. The break-even coaches were Auburn’s Hugh Freeze, Georgia Tech’s Brent Key and South Florida’s Alex Golesh. Freeze finished about where Auburn was predicted to be this season – not better; not worse. Key improved Georgia Tech from a 5-7 team (2022) to 6-6. And the 6-6 was better than predicted. The big improvement was made by Golesh at South Florida. The Bulls were 1-11 in 2022. Under Golesh, South Florida was 6-6 this year. The Bulls were predicted to be 3-9 this season.

 

Falling just short of the 6-6 mark were Nebraska’s Matt Rhule (5-7), Mississippi State’s Zach Arnett (5-7), Navy’s Brian Newberry (5-7) and North Texas’ Eric Morris (5-7). Rhule’s first-year mark at Nebraska was a slight improvement over last year’s 4-8. However, Nebraskans were hoping that Rhule would be at least 6-6, if not 7-5. Rhule’s problem was the lack of a quarterback. The Huskers did show improvement on defense.

 

Arnett was definitely a disappointment at Mississippi State. So much so that he was fired after only one season at 5-7. Newberry finished with a one game improvement over last year. Navy was 4-8 in 2022. And 5-7 was exactly where Navy was predicted to finish. Morris has some work to do at North Texas. The Mean Green were predicted to be 7-5 this season, not 5-7.

 

Among the bad first-year coaches, the best of the bunch all finished with 4-8 records. This group includes Colorado’s Deion Sanders, Purdue’s Ryan Williams, Florida Atlantic’s Tom Herman, Tulsa’s Kevin Wilson, Western Michigan’s Lance Taylor and UAB’s Trent Dilfer. Sanders actually made an improvement in Boulder. Colorado was 1-11 last year. And 4-8 was exactly where Sanders was predicted to finish.

 

Purdue took a few steps backwards under Williams, going from 8-6 (2022) to 4-8 this year. Forecasters thought the Boilers would at least be 5-7. Herman was a big disappointment at Florida Atlantic. The Owls were worse than last year and failed to meet expectations this season. Herman has some work to do. Wilson had a tough start at Tulsa, but in his defense, he finished where he was predicted to finish. Likewise for Taylor at Western Michigan. He finished about where he was expected to be. A disappointment though was Dilfer at UAB. The Blazers were 7-6 last year and expected to be somewhat better than 4-8 this year. Dilfer also has some work to do.

 

Four coaches were hurting this year at 3-9. They were Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham, Stanford’s Troy Taylor, Cincinnati’s Scott Satterfield and Charlotte’s Biff Poggi. Dillingham held steady at Arizona State. The Sun Devils were 3-9 last year. And not a lot was expected from Arizona State this year. Stanford also finished as expected and the same as last year – 3-9. So first-year coach Troy Taylor is off the hook for now.

 

Satterfield was a big disappointment at Cincinnati. The Bearcats were 9-4 last year. They were 3-9 this year. Not good, especially when the Bearcats were expected to do better. Satterfield was a strange hire to begin with. He was fired by Louisville and hired by Cincinnati. Go figure. Poggi held steady at Charlotte, performing no better, nor no worse than the 49ers did last year. And 3-9 was where Charlotte was predicted to be.  

 

By far, the worst first-year coach of the bunch was Kent State’s Kenni Burns. The Golden Flashes were 1-11. That’s worse than last year’s 5-7 team. Kent State is not an easy place to win. Burns has his work cut out for him.

 

Ten of the first-year coaches have their teams in bowl games. Ten out of 25 isn’t bad.

 

 

The bowl season begins Saturday with six games. Between December 16 and January 1, there will be 41 games. The bowl activity commences with the Myrtle Beach Bowl in Conway, South Carolina, and ends with the Sugar Bowl from New Orleans. The season comes to an end the following week with the National Championship game on January 8.

 

There are way too many bowls. Forty-one bowls is overkill. A team should be required to have a 7-5 record to be eligible for a bowl. As it stands today, teams with 6-6 records are eligible. A bowl should be a reward for a winning season. A record of 6-6 is not a winning season. I’m thinking 30 bowls would be appropriate. Certainly, no more than 32.

 

With so many players opting out of the games, the bowls are losing their allure. Not only players opting out, but also, players entering the transfer portal. It’s always been tough to predict the bowl games. You never know what mood the players are in at the end of the season. Some teams are playing under interim coaches. And now with the opt outs and transfer portal, you often don’t know who is playing and who isn’t.

 

Still, what would we do without the bowl season? It does provide entertainment over the holidays, especially during the days after Christmas and on New Year’s Day. And the bowls are good for the economies of the cities that host them.

 

All 41 of the bowls will be on national TV. ESPN is carrying 31 of the games. ABC is broadcasting six games. The CW Network, CBS, Fox Sports and ESPN2 each have one game.

 

The Sun Belt Conference has the most teams – 12 – playing in the bowls. In fact, 12 of the 14 teams in the Sun Belt qualified for bowl spots. That’s amazing. The ACC has 11 teams in bowl games and the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC have nine each.

 

Orlando and Dallas host the most bowls at three each. Charlotte, New Orleans, Phoenix and Tampa each host two bowls. No other city hosts more than one bowl.

 

 

Reports surfaced out of Tallahassee earlier this week saying Florida State is leaving the ACC for the Big Ten. Supposedly, the announcement from the Big Ten Conference and Florida State is coming sometime by January 31. If true, the Noles would join the Big Ten on July 1, 2025. Stay tuned!

 

Fired Boise State coach Andy Avelos has been hired by TCU to be the Frogs defensive coordinator. Avelos is a former defensive coordinator at Boise State and Oregon. He replaces Joe Gillespie, who was fired last week by TCU coach Sonny Dykes.   

 

Duke quarterback Riley Leonard is transferring to Notre Dame. Ohio State quarterback Kyle McCord and Washington State quarterback Cameron Ward are both in the portal. North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye has declared for the NFL draft. Miami (Florida) quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has transferred to Wisconsin. Finally, Coastal Carolina quarterback Grayson McCall is transferring to NC State.

 

And the fake outrage continues. Now Florida Attorney General Ashley Moody announced she is launching an investigation into the CFP committee’s snubbing of Florida State. Specifically, Moody wants to investigate the CFP’s “connection” with ESPN. Somebody needs to tell Moody that the ACC is just as connected to ESPN as is the SEC. All of the ACC football games are televised by ESPN. Moody has a history of promoting conspiracy theories. If she really wanted to accomplish something worthwhile, Moody would get the CFP to reveal how each of the 13 committee members voted.

 

Last week Florida Governor Ron DeSantis requested the state set aside $1 million so the state of Florida can sue the CFP. Where do these nuts come from? This is not something the government needs to get involved in. I’m pretty sure Florida has bigger issues than this. The next thing you know, Moms for Liberty will want to ban the CFP.  Can’t let the children see Nick Saban or Jim Harbaugh.

 

If you have the stamina, there are about 14 hours of bowl games Saturday. Make the best of it or catch the highlights on “Sports Center.” Have a good weekend.

 

 

Season’s Greetings……Happy Hanukkah……Merry Christmas……Happy Holidays

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

December 14, 2023

 

Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for This Week’s Six Bowl Games

 

Georgia Southern (6-6) vs. Ohio (9-3) – (Sun Belt vs. MAC) – Myrtle Beach Bowl (Brooks Stadium – Conway, South Carolina) – 11 am ET, Saturday, ESPN – This is almost a home game for Georgia Southern. Statesboro, Georgia, isn’t all that far from Conway, South Carolina. And every other year, the Eagles play on this field against Sun Belt Conference foe Coastal Carolina. But before Georgia Southern can win, the Eagles have to figure out how to get through or around Ohio’s defense. The Bobcats have one of the best defenses in the country. Ohio’s defense will be tested, as Georgia Southern has a top-notch offense. This boils down to the Eagles offense against the Bobcats defense. Rufus dines on fowl – Ohio 21, Georgia Southern 20.

 

Jacksonville State (8-4) vs. Louisiana (6-6) – (C-USA vs. Sun Belt) – New Orleans Bowl (Caesar’s Superdome – New Orleans, Louisiana) – 2:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – This is a home game for Louisiana. Well, not quite, but almost. Jacksonville State was not supposed to be in a bowl game. As a team in transition from FCS to FBS, the Gamecocks are not permitted to go to a bowl game. However, not enough FBS teams were eligible for a bowl game. This lack of eligible FBS teams allowed Jax State to fill a bowl slot. That should provide good incentive for the Gamecocks. Take advantage of your opportunity. Louisiana was a bit of a disappointment this year. The Rajin’ Cajuns were supposed to be better than 6-6. These two teams are pretty evenly matched – similar offenses, similar defenses. Jax State is slightly better on defense. That’s the difference. The Gamecock spoils the gumbo – Jacksonville State 27, Louisiana 24.

 

Miami (Ohio) (11-2) vs. Appalachian State (8-5) – (MAC vs. Sun Belt) – Cure Bowl (FBC Mortgage Stadium – Orlando, Florida) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Two oppositely matched teams. App State has a good offense with a weak defense. Miami has a good defense with a weak offense. Something’s got to break. The RedHawks play conservative ball and let their defense take advantage of opportunities. The Mountaineers play wild, aggressive ball and hope to overpower their opponents. Miami’s defense will test them. This could be the lowest scoring of the six games on Saturday. The Mountaineers find a seam in Miami’s defense – Appalachian State 20, Miami 18.

 

New Mexico State (10-4) vs. Fresno State (8-4) – (C-USA vs. MWC) – New Mexico Bowl (University Stadium – Albuquerque, New Mexico) – 5:45 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – You have to love New Mexico State. This team has been through so much adversity through the years. They seemed to find themselves last year. They really found themselves this year. State beat Auburn, 31-10. Coach Jerry Kill seems to have fun coaching the Aggies. He’s found the key to their success. And this will practically be a home game for the Aggies. Fresno State was a hot team during the early half of the season. Then the Bulldogs seemed to fall apart. Both teams are shaky on defense. New Mexico State has the better offense. The Aggies send the Bulldogs to the pen – New Mexico State 28, Fresno State 25.

 

UCLA (7-5) vs. Boise State (8-5) – (Pac-12 vs. MWC) – LA Bowl (SoFi Stadium – Los Angeles, California) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Talk about a home field advantage, the Bruins have it made in the shade. Two more opposite-minded teams. UCLA plays good defense and weak offense. Boise State plays good offense and weak defense. The Bruins were crazy this season. They played brilliant football some Saturdays. Other Saturdays they played lousy football. Their last two games were an example. UCLA beat USC, 38-20. Then the Bruins lost to California, 33-7. There were reports that Chip Kelly was going to lose his job. But he survived. Boise State coach Andy Avelos did lose his job during the season. The Broncos won all of their games after Avelos was canned. Boise State will be fired up in this game. UCLA won’t. How can you be fired up when the names of your mascots are Joe and Josephine? Joe and Josey can’t break Buster – Boise State 21, UCLA 20.

 

California (6-6) vs. Texas Tech (6-6) – (Pac-12 vs. Big 12) – Independence Bowl (Independence Stadium – Shreveport, Louisiana) – 9:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Both teams have good offenses with lousy defenses. Cal comes into the game on a three-game winning streak. Tech had a three-game winning streak going until Texas clobbered them 57-7. Cal’s coach Justin Wilcox was in danger of losing his job. But he survived. The Golden Bears often rely on their running game. What is it with these California schools? The name of Cal’s mascot is Oski. The Red Raiders take Oski for a ride – Texas Tech 27, California 24.

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“To me it is just complete unadulterated fake outrage. It’s where we are as a society, where people without any facts just gravitate towards any issue, and just regurgitate whatever the talking points are,” Paul Finebaum, on the reaction of Florida officials and Florida State fans to being left out of the playoff.

 

“It’s laughable that we continue to go down this path. I don’t know if she has the understanding of how college football works. Do we just assume that? I guess we all have just forgotten that Florida State actually signed up for this. Florida State agreed to be a part of this. Florida State said they agreed to how the process was going to work,” sports analyst and commentator Cole Cubelic, blasting Florida’s attorney general for launching an official investigation into FSU’s exclusion from the playoff.  

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com