CFW Week 14 Forecast - Petrino returns to Arkansas

 CFW Week 14 Forecast –Petrino returns to Arkansas

Oregon-Washington, Georgia-Alabama

Oh, the angst, it doesn’t get any better

 

Without a doubt, the two marquee games this weekend are Oregon-Washington and Georgia-Alabama. Although important in their own right, no other conference championship game measures up to these two contests.

 

The Oregon-Washington game is a rematch. The Ducks and the Huskies met during the season, with Washington winning, 36-33. The game was one of the most exciting of the season. Who knows what the two teams have in store for an encore. No. 5 Oregon versus No. 3 Washington. The winner will be in the playoff; the loser won’t.

 

Although they are scheduled to meet during the season next year in Tuscaloosa, Georgia and Alabama did not play each other this season. That creates more anticipation for this game. More angst too. The Dawgs are undefeated at 12-0. Alabama, at 11-1, comes into the game on a 10-game winning streak. No. 1 Georgia versus No. 8 Alabama. If Georgia wins, the Dawgs are in the playoff. If Georgia loses, who knows? If Alabama wins, there are no guarantees. The Tide could still be behind Michigan, Washington/Oregon, Florida State and Texas. Even more angst.

 

Michigan, Florida State and Texas are all favored to win their games over Iowa, Louisville and Oklahoma State respectively. However, upsets are possible in the Florida State and Texas games. None of these games are rematches. Louisville-Florida State has its share of angst.

 

None of the Group of Five championship games are marquee contests per se. However, all five of the contests have the potential to be the most thrilling and exciting games of the weekend. The outcome of each could come down to the final seconds of the game – a last minute touchdown, or a clock-expiring field goal.

 

The best of the Group of Five championship games is SMU-Tulane. These two did not meet during the season. If Tulane wins, the Green Wave are in a New Year’s Six bowl. If SMU wins, the Mustangs may or may not be in a New Year’s Six bowl.

 

Liberty puts its undefeated record on the line against upstart New Mexico State. Toledo tries to extend its 11-game winning streak against Miami. Appalachian State will try to end Troy’s nine-game winning streak. And UNLV is going for its first MWC championship. The Rebels take on Boise State.

 

The New Mexico State-Liberty and Miami-Toledo games are rematches.

 

After Week 13, five teams remain undefeated. They are Georgia (SEC), Michigan (Big Ten), Washington (Pac-12), Florida State (ACC) and Liberty (C-USA).

 

The Top 6 teams in this week’s CFP rankings are 1. Georgia (12-0), 2. Michigan (12-0), 3. Washington (12-0), 4. Florida State (12-0), 5. Oregon (11-1), and 6. Ohio State (11-1). Two Group of Five teams are ranked. Tulane (11-1) is 22 and Liberty (12-0) is 24.

 

Personally, my Top 6 teams this week are 1. Georgia, 2. Michigan, 3. Washington, 4. Oregon, 5. Ohio State, and 6. Florida State. I have Texas at 7 and Alabama at 8.

 

This week, Georgia plays Alabama and Michigan plays Iowa. Washington plays Oregon and Florida State plays Louisville. Tulane plays SMU and Liberty plays New Mexico State.

 

Heisman favorites Michael Penix (Washington), Bo Nix (Oregon), Jalen Milroe (Alabama), Carson Beck (Georgia) and J.J. McCarthy (Michigan) all have the opportunity to put the final touches on their Heisman Trophy resumes this weekend. They each have the chance to enhance their resumes. The only favorite not playing this weekend is Jayden Daniels (LSU).

 

Delaware will become the latest team to transition from FCS to FBS football. The Blue Hens are not only making the transition, but also, they will join Conference USA. As an FCS team, Delaware is currently a member of the Coastal Athletic Association with teams like Villanova, Richmond and William & Mary. Delaware won the FCS national title in 2003. Former coach Tubby Raymond won 300 games at the school and helped popularize the Wing T offense. Delaware plays No. 2 Montana this weekend in the second round of the FCS playoffs.

 

Middle Tennessee fired coach Rick Stockstill on Monday. Stockstill has coached the Blue Raiders for 18 seasons, with a record of 113-111. Middle Tennessee was 4-8 this season.

 

Mike Elko’s contract at Texas A&M is $42 million over six years – $7 million a year.

 

He’s back! Bobby Petrino is back at Arkansas. Not as the head coach but as the offensive coordinator. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman, who almost lost his job this year, will enter the 2024 season on the hottest seat in the country. And sitting right behind Pittman, breathing down his neck and waiting to take over will be Bobby Petrino. Petrino previously was the head coach at Arkansas from 2008 to 2011, where his record was 34-17. He was fired after the 2011 season for inappropriate activities with an athletic department staff member at Arkansas and lying to the athletic director.  Over the years, Petrino has been the head coach at Louisville (two stints), Atlanta Falcons (NFL), Western Kentucky and Missouri State. This past season, Petrino was Jimbo Fisher’s offensive coordinator at Texas A&M. Arkansas coach Sam Pittman fired his offensive coordinator a few weeks ago. Petrino was hired by Arkansas athletic director Hunter Yurachek, not by Pittman.

 

Colorado offensive coordinator Sean Lewis has been named the new head coach at San Diego State. Prior to this season Lewis was the head coach at Kent State from 2018 to 2022, where he went 24-31.

 

Oregon State promoted defensive coordinator Trent Bray to head coach, replacing Jonathan Smith who left to take the Michigan State job.

 

Florida coach Billy Napier is shaking up his staff. Earlier this week, Napier fired his co-defensive coordinator Sean Spencer and his defensive backs coach Corey Raymond.

 

The final CFP rankings and all the bowl slots will be announced beginning at 12 noon ET, Sunday, on ESPN.

 

From 7 pm ET, Friday night to 11:45 pm ET, Saturday night, to Sunday afternoon, it’s going to be a great weekend. I’m fraught with angst.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com

November 30, 2023

 

 

Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for

This Week’s 10 Conference Championship Games….and then none

 

GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. (#5) Oregon (11-1) vs. (#3) Washington (12-0) – (PAC-12 Championship Game – Las Vegas, Nevada) – 8 pm ET, Friday, ABC – Three of the 10 conference championship games are rematches. This is one of them. Back on October 14, Washington beat Oregon, 36-33. That game was in Seattle. This one is in Las Vegas. Washington has struggled in its last three games – 7 points over Utah, 2 points over Oregon State and 3 points over Washington State. Oregon beat Utah by 29 points, beat Oregon State by 24 points and beat Washington State by 14 points. Washington averages 38 points a game. The Huskies hold opponents to 23 points a game. Oregon averages 45 points a game. The Ducks hold opponents to 16 points a game. Washington quarterback Michael Penix has passed for 3,899 yards. Oregon quarterback Bo Nix has passed for 3,906 yards. Both teams are good on offense. Oregon is slightly better. Oregon has a much better defense than Washington. Puddles’ quack is louder than Harry’s bark – Oregon 30, Washington 26.

 

RUNNER-UP: 2. (#1) Georgia (12-0) vs. (#8) Alabama (11-1) – (SEC Championship Game – Atlanta, Georgia) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – Hasn’t everybody been waiting for this game? Well, most everybody. And, of course, the big question is: If Alabama beats Georgia, will Georgia be eliminated from the playoff? An even better question is: If Alabama beats Georgia, will the Tide get into the playoff? I mean, if Michigan, Washington, Florida State and Texas all win, and Georgia loses, will an SEC team make the playoff? It could be interesting. These teams stack up pretty well against each other. Georgia is averaging 40 points a game on offense. The Dawgs are holding opponents to 16 points a game. Alabama isn’t far behind. The Tide are averaging 36 points a game and holding opponents to 18 points a game. Georgia quarterback Carson Beck has passed for 3,495 yards. Bama quarterback Jalen Milroe has passed for 2,526 yards. Whose offense will fizzle? Whose defense will break? This game and the Oregon-Washington game are definitely the two best headliners this weekend. Uga says, “No end-of-the-game miracles for Bama this weekend” – Georgia 28, Alabama 24.

 

REST OF THE TITLE GAMES: 3. (#2) Michigan (12-0) vs. (#16) Iowa (10-2) – (Big Ten Championship Game – Indianapolis, Indiana) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – The big question in this game: Will Iowa score any points? If the Hawkeyes do, we know it won’t be many. Against Michigan’s defense, it should be few. In Iowa’s last six games, the Hawkeyes have only averaged 14 points a game on offense. Iowa quarterback Deacon Hill is slow and fat. Another question is: Will Michigan score many points? Iowa’s defense is holding opponents to 12 points a game. But most of Iowa’s opponents were not big on offense. Michigan is. The Wolverines average 38 points a game on offense. Michigan has one of the best quarterbacks in the country – J.J. McCarthy. It should be interesting watching Michigan’s offense against Iowa’s defense. It should be boring watching Iowa’s offense against Michigan’s defense. We may not hear the Iowa fight song – Michigan 30, Iowa 7.

 

4. (#14) Louisville (10-2) vs. (#4) Florida State (12-0) – (ACC Championship Game – Charlotte, North Carolina) – 8 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – If Jordan Travis was playing, this game wouldn’t even be close. With Travis out, that makes it a little more interesting. Louisville is weird. Beating Notre Dame 33-20 one week and losing to Pitt, 38-21, the next week. How strange is that? With a backup quarterback, FSU’s offense is diminished. But at worst case, the Noles should stay even with Louisville. I think the difference will be on defense. That’s where the Noles have the advantage. But FSU may not have an advantage with the CFP selection committee. With a backup quarterback, will the committee select FSU over Michigan, Georgia, Washington/Oregon and Texas? To FSU’s advantage, it would be hard to overlook an undefeated conference champion. The Chief is not worried – Florida State 27, Louisville 22.

  

5. (#18) Oklahoma State (9-3) vs. (#7) Texas (11-1) (Big 12 Championship Game – Arlington, Texas) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Oklahoma State’s problem is its defense. The Cowboys are giving up 27 points a game. The Longhorns’ offense will take advantage of that. Texas is averaging 35 points a game. And the Longhorns’ defense is better than Okie State’s defense. But Texas has to figure out how to stop running back Ollie Gordon. Nobody else has figured out how to stop Gordon. He has rushed for 1,579 yards. A Texas win may be a moot point when it comes to the CFP. If Georgia, Washington/Oregon, Michigan and Florida State win, Texas could be on the outside looking in. But Bevo won’t be on the outside against the Cowboys – Texas 33, Oklahoma State 21.

 

6. (#25) SMU (10-2) vs. (#22) Tulane (11-1) (AAC Championship Game – New Orleans, Louisiana) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – These two teams did not meet during the season. Both were undefeated in conference play. Both are similar on defense – each giving up 18 points a game. The big difference is on offense. SMU averages 42 points a game. Tulane averages 28 points a game. So, Tulane has to figure out how to stop the Mustangs’ offense. Both teams have good quarterbacks. Tulane’s Michael Pratt is the more experienced of the two. However, SMU’s Preston Stone has passed for 3,204 yards. If Tulane wins, the Green Wave will definitely play in a New Year’s Six bowl as the highest-ranked Group of Five team. If SMU wins, then the Mustangs have to leapfrog Liberty, assuming Liberty wins its game. But that could happen with Tulane being viewed as a stronger opponent than New Mexico State. Of course, Toledo and Troy could make waves. It all comes down to who wins and by how much. The boys from Dallas trip up the boys from the Big Easy – SMU 30, Tulane 27.

 

7.(#32) New Mexico State (10-3) vs. (#24) Liberty (12-0) – (C-USA Championship Game – Lynchburg, Virginia) – 7 pm ET, Friday, CBSSN – This is another one of the three rematches this weekend. Back on September 9, Liberty beat New Mexico State, 33-17. But the Aggies weren’t the same team then they are now. New Mexico State is on an eight-game winning streak, including the 31-10 win over Auburn. The Aggies have a good quarterback – Diego Pavia. Pavia is not only the leading passer (2,727 yards), but also, he is the leading rusher (808 yards). Both teams are similar on defense. Liberty is much stronger on offense. The Flames average 40 points a game. Liberty is also better balanced at running and passing. The Aggies can’t douse the Flames – Liberty 27, New Mexico State 23.

 

8. (#35) Miami (Ohio) (10-2) vs. (#26) Toledo (11-1) – (MAC Championship Game – Detroit, Michigan) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – This game is also a rematch. Back on October 21, Toledo beat Miami, 21-17. That was the last game the RedHawks lost. Miami is on a four-game winning streak. But Toledo is on an 11-game winning streak. The Rockets haven’t lost since their opener. That was just a 2-point loss to Illinois. Toledo has a good quarterback in DeQuan Finn and a better running back in Peny Boone. Boone has rushed for 1,359 yards. Toledo is stronger on offense – 35 points a game to 20 for Miami. The RedHawks are better on defense – 16 points a game to 20 for Toledo. The Rockets get a boost from their offense – Toledo 25, Miami 20.

 

9. Appalachian State (8-4) vs. (# 30) Troy (10-2) – (Sun Belt Championship Game – Troy, Alabama) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – App State got off to a rough start this season. After seven games, the Mountaineers were 3-4. They come into this contest on a five-game winning streak. Troy got off to a rough start too. After three games, the Trojans were 1-2. Now Troy is on a nine-game winning streak. Troy averages 30 points a game on offense. The Trojans’ defense holds opponents to 17 points a game. Troy is good at passing and running. Quarterback Gunnar Watson passed for 3,136 yards. Running back Kimani Vidal rushed for 1,350 yards. App State is stronger on offense (36 points a game) and weaker on defense (27 points game) than Troy. The Mountaineers are strong on passing and weak on running. Quarterback Tony Aguilar passed for 3,268 yards. The Trojans put a bug in the App – Troy 30, Appalachian State 24.

 

10. Boise State (7-5) vs. (#33) UNLV (9-3) (MWC Championship Game – Las Vegas, Nevada) – 3 pm ET, Saturday, FOX – Actually, UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State all tied for the regular season conference title with 6-2 conference records. San Jose State beat UNLV and lost to Boise State. UNLV and Boise State didn’t meet. A computer selected Boise State and UNLV to play in the conference title game. UNLV averages 36 points a game and gives up 26 points a game. The Rebels have an exciting quarterback in Jayden Maiava. UNLV is weak at the running game. Boise State came on strong at the end of the season, winning its last three games. The Broncos average 32 points a game and give up 25 points a game. Boise State has a strong running game. The Rebels hold ’em, the Broncos fold ’em – UNLV 26, Boise State 22.

 

 

Quotes of the Week

 

“I’m not going to go as far as to say contrived, but it is hyped up to no end. I think that it’s very manufactured for the TV show that people want to watch and see. The bitterness and storylines of animosity seem manufactured by outside sources,” Michigan coach Jim Harbaugh, on the Ohio State-Michigan rivalry.

 

“Make no mistake that a good quarterback in the portal costs, you know, a million to $1.5 million to $2 million right now, just so we’re all on the same page. Let’s make sure we all understand what’s happening. There are some teams that have $6 million or $7 million players playing for them right now,” Nebraska coach Matt Rhule.  

 

“Maybe Napier will enter the portal,” Rockledge Gator, upon hearing that Florida redshirt freshman quarterback Max Brown is entering the transfer portal.

 

Touchdown Tom

https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com