CFW Week 10 Forecast – Vanderbilt-Texas; Oklahoma-Tennessee
Coaching carousel has 12 openings,
and the season is not yet over
It’s still October and already 12 schools have fired their coaches. I don’t remember a year with this many firings at only nine weeks into the season.
Once the season began, the first two terminations – UCLA’s DeShaun Foster and Virginia Tech’s Brent Pry – occurred on September 14. That was just three weeks into the season. The most recent termination occurred last Sunday – LSU’s Brian Kelly.
The first two firings actually occurred long before the season began. Stanford fired Troy Taylor in late March and Kent State fired Kenni Burns in mid-April. Both Stanford and Kent State named interim coaches for the 2025 season. Stanford’s interim coach – Frank Reich – will step down at the end of the season. The Cardinal are on a search for a full-time coach to be named at the end of the season.
Kent State named Mike Carney its interim coach. Unlike Reich, Carney has the opportunity to be named the full-time coach at the end of the season. I’d say he has a good chance since Kent State at 3-5 has already won 3 more games than the Golden Flashes did all of last year.
Of the 12 openings, eight are at Power Four schools and four are at Group of Five Schools. The Power Four schools are UCLA, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arkansas, Penn State, Florida and LSU. Those are all prime jobs at prime football schools. They will draw some prime coaches.
Names already being bandied about are Oregon’s Dan Lanning, Nebraska’s Matt Rhule, Indiana’s Curt Cignetti, Ole Miss’s Lane Kiffin, Tulane’s Jon Sumrall, South Florida’s Alex Golesh, Georgia Tech’s Brent Key, Louisville’s Jeff Brohm, Duke’s Manny Diaz, SMU’s Rhett Lashlee, Notre Dame’s Marcus Freeman, Missouri’s Eliah Drinkwitz, Vanderbilt’s Clark Lea and Arizona State’s Kenny Dillingham.
Even fired Penn State coach James Franklin has been mentioned. Even retired coaches Nick Saban and Urban Meyer. You just know the agents are chomping at the bit. They are wired. The fun has begun.
I suspect there will be some more prime jobs opening up – maybe Wisconsin, Florida State, Auburn?
The four Group of Five schools looking for coaches are Kent State, Oregon State, UAB and Colorado State. They will draw some hot, up-and-coming coaches who will use those schools to hopefully springboard to a prime football school. I’m sure by the end of the season, there will be more openings at other Group of Five schools.
So, who will be the new coach at Penn State? Who will be the new coach at Florida? At LSU? Stay tuned!
There are three marquee games this week – two in the SEC and one in the Big 12. A third SEC game is a marquee rivalry.
Beginning in the SEC, how about Vanderbilt (7-1) at Texas (6-2). And the big question is the status of Arch Manning. Will he or won’t he play? Manning is currently in concussion protocol. If he doesn’t play, Manning’s replacement is Matthew Caldwell. Should Vandy win this game, I’ll pinch myself to make sure I’m not dreaming.
The other marquee game in the SEC is Oklahoma (6-2) at Tennessee (6-2). This is a key game for both teams. A loss could make it difficult for the loser to make the CFP. Tennessee is coming in off a big win. Oklahoma comes in off a big loss. The marquee rivalry is the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party – Georgia (7-1) vs. Florida (3-4). This will be Florida’s first game under its interim coach – Billy Gonzalez. The Gators have lost four-straight to Georgia. Florida last beat Georgia in 2020.
The third marquee game of the week takes place in the Big 12 – Cincinnati (7-1) at Utah (6-2). I’m thinking this is going to be some kind of exciting game. Cincy quarterback Brendan Sorsby creates excitement on the field. Last week, Utah backup quarterback Byrd Ficklin couldn’t do anything wrong. But will Ficklin or quarterback Devon Dampier play?
The other big game in the Big 12 is Arizona State (5-3) at Iowa State (5-3). After starting out 5-0, Iowa Stte has lost its last three games. Two of them were close losses – each by a touchdown. You never know which Arizona State team will show up. But when the good one does, the Sun Devils are tough.
The best game in the Big Ten is USC (5-2) at Nebraska (6-2). Can Nebraska’s defense stop USC’s offense? Likewise, can USC’s defense stop Nebraska’s offense? The other interesting game in the Big Ten is Indiana (8-0) at Maryland (4-3). Can anyone stop the Hoosiers? Indiana could be prime for an upset. Is Maryland capable?
That brings us to the ACC where two games could stir things up. First, we are looking a Virginia (7-1) at California (5-3). Virginia should have gotten a wake up call last week – a one-point overtime win over North Carolina. If that didn’t wake up the Cavaliers, Cal will jump all over them. Then there is 10th-ranked Miami (6-1) at SMU (5-3). SMU got its wake up call last week. The Mustangs lost by one point to Wake Forest. The Mustangs had Miami on their minds. This week, Miami is on the Mustang’s field.
And finally, we wind up with a key American Conference game that could be a doozy – Navy (7-0) at North Texas (7-1). Blake Horvath vs. Drew Mestemaker. Last week, Horvath ran for 176 yards. Last week Mestemaker passed for 608 yards. Both teams are still in contention to be the Group of Five team in the CFP.
Three other games I am interested and curious to see how they play out are Penn State (3-4) at Ohio State (7-0). Oh, we know Ohio State will win. Just curious to see how Penn State performs under interim coach Terry Smith. Texas Tech (7-1) at Kansas State (4-4). Texas Tech is down to its third-string quarterback. First-string quarterback Behren Morton is out temporarily with an ankle injury. Second-string quarterback Will Hammond is out for the rest of the season with a torn ACL. Kansas State is a much improved team – getting better and better. Georgia Tech (8-0) at NC State (4-4). Georgia Tech is ripe for an upset and NC State is just the team to pull it off. The Yellow Jackets better beware.
College Football Week 10 began Tuesday night with two games. Kennesaw State had a big first quarter and a big fourth quarter to beat UTEP, 33-20. Kennesaw State outscored UTEP 14-0 in the first quarter and 10-0 in the fourth quarter. In the second game, James Madison walloped Texas State, 52-20. JMU quarterback Alonza Barnett passed for 264 yards and four touchdowns. Barnett ran for 98 yards and another touchdown. JMU racked up 511 total yards.
Week 10 continued last night with two more games. Jacksonville State scored 17 points in the fourth quarter and held on to beat Middle Tennessee, 24-21. In the other game, Missouri State downed FIU, 28-21.
ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Salt Lake City for the Cincinnati-Utah game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will be in Columbus for the Penn State-Ohio State game. SEC Network’s SEC Nation will be in Austin for the Vanderbilt-Texas game. The ACC Network’s ACC Huddle will be in Berkeley for the Virginia-California game.
The Top-5 teams in this week’s FCS Coaches Poll are 1. North Dakota State (8-0), 2. Tarleton State (9-0), 3. Montana (8-0), 4. Montana State (6-2), and South Dakota State (7-1). Lehigh (8-0) is 7th, Harvard (6-0) is 15th and Presbyterian (7-1) is 22nd. (Note: I list Lehigh, Harvard and Presbyterian because they are non-athletic scholarship FCS programs.)
Touchdown Tom
October 30, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Ten’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. #9 Vanderbilt (7-1) at #20 Texas (6-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Texas quarterback Arch Manning in concussion protocol. He may not play. The backup quarterback is Matthew Caldwell. Caldwell is a senior transfer from Troy. Vandy quarterback Diego Pavia will be playing. I suspect he will be playing inspired football. Pavia has passed for 1,628 yards. He has run for his share of yards too. Vandy is averaging 38 points a game on offense. Texas is holding opponents to 15 points a game on defense. Let the battle begin. Two weeks in a row I have picked Vandy to lose. They won both times. The third time has to be a charm – Texas 27, Vanderbilt 24.
RUNNER-UP: 2. #18 Oklahoma (6-2) at #14 Tennessee (6-2) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Oklahoma may have seen its better days this season. It may only get worse from here on out. Actually, from last week when the Sooners fell to Ole Miss. Tennessee could be on the up-and-up for the rest of the season. The upward trend began last week with the win over Kentucky. Both teams have good quarterbacks. Tennessee quarterback Joey Aguilar is doing better with 2,344 yards passing. The Vols definitely have the better offense, averaging 46 points a game. OU appears to have the better defense, holding opponents to 13 points a game. But Tennessee’s offense will penetrate the OU defense. It’s looking gloomier for Boomer – Tennessee 34, Oklahoma 31.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. #17 Cincinnati (7-1) at #24 Utah (6-2) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 10:15 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Both Cincy and Utah are talented on offense. Both are decent on defense. Utah may be a little better. Cincy quarterback Brendan Sorsby has passed for 1,843 yards. Utah keeps coming up with good quarterbacks. Last week it was Byrd Ficklin. Ficklin replaced the injured Devon Dampier. Last week, Ficklin literally passed and ran up and down the field. Both teams are averaging 38-39 points a game. This one could be a high-scoring affair. The Utes will score more – Utah 30, Cincinnati 28.
4. #23 USC (5-2) at Nebraska (6-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – These teams are similar on offense and defense. Nebraska is the better running team with Emmett Johnson. Johnson has rushed for 837 yards. USC relies more on its passing attack. Trojans quarterback Jayden Maiava has passed for 2,180 yards. The touchdowns and field goals may be frequent in this game. A little more frequent for the Trojans – USC 30, Nebraska 28.
5. #2 Indiana (8-0) at Maryland (4-3) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBS – If Indiana keeps playing the way the Hoosiers have been, then they will have no trouble against Maryland. But every good team has an off day. Should the Hoosiers have an off day, Maryland is capable of upsetting them. Of the two teams, Indiana is much better on offense and defense. The Hoosiers average 45 points a game and only give up 11 points a game. The strong offense is due to the passing of Fernando Mendoza. He has passed for 1,923 yards. Maryland passes well, but the Terps have no running game. Indiana adds to Maryland’s three-game losing streak. The Hoosiers buffalo the Terps – Indiana 31, Maryland 20.
6. #15 Viginia (7-1) at California (5-3) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:45 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – The Cavaliers better hope that last week’s overtime win over North Carolina was a wakeup call for them. If it wasn’t, then Cal is likely to upset them. Virginia scores more than Cal – 37 points a game to 25 points a game. Both are similar on defense, holding opponents to 23 points a game. Virginia quarterback Chandler Morris has passed for 1,807 yards. Cal quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele has passed for 1,982 yards. Cal definitely plays better at home than on the road. There could be an upset looming. But not this week – Virginia 30, California 24.
7. #10 Miami (6-1) at SMU (5-3) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN – SMU was upset by Wake Forest last week. No doubt the Mustangs were looking ahead to this game. Miami could be on the upset end of things this week. SMU is capable. Both teams are averaging 32-33 points a game. Miami is a little better on defense. SMU quarterback Kevin Jennings has passed for 2,119 yards. Miami quarterback Carson Beck has passed for 1,673 yards. The SMU defenders will be out to sack and intercept Beck. They will be blown over by the Canes – Miami 28, SMU 24.
8. #26 Navy (7-0) at #34 North Texas (7-1) – (AC vs. AC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Of all the games this week, this one could end up being the highest-scoring game of the week. North Texas averages 46 points a game. Navy averages 37. Both defenses give up 24 points a game. Navy quarterback Blake Horvath runs and passes. He has rushed for 814 yards and passed for 1,063 yards. But the one to watch out for is North Texas quarterback Drew Mestemaker. Last week, he passed for 608 yards. He’s passed for 2,468 yards this season. Mestemaker may be the Navy’s demise. But the Middies swab the Mena Green off the field – Navy 35, North Texas 34.
9. Arizona State (5-3) at Iowa State (5-3) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, TNT – Iowa State is on a three-game losing streak. It’s about time the Cyclones pop up and beat somebody. They are too good a team to be losing all these games. Arizona State looks like the prime suspect to end Iowa State’s losing streak. The Sun Devils have been an up-and-down team. Both ASI and ISU are similar teams. Both average around 27 points a game. Both defenses give up about 23 points a game. Iowa State quarterback Rocco Becht has passed for 1,933 yards. ASU quarterback Sam Leavitt has passed for 1,628 yards. Leavitt has suffered some injuries, and it looks like he will miss this game. No sun for the Devils – Iowa State 27, Arizona State 23.
10. #5 Georgia (6-1) vs. Florida (3-4) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Ah, the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. What would it be without a Florida-Georgia game? There’s no doubt who should and probably will win. But the Gators will be fired up, playing under interim coach Billy Gonzales. Florida went from one Billy to another. Ever noticed how fired up teams seem to play under an interim coach – especially in the first game after the full-time coach has been fired. The defenses of the two teams are similar. Both are giving up 20 points a game. Georgia is considerably better on offense. Florida quarterback D.J. Lagway has been a disappointment. Georgia quarterback Gunner Stockton has been okay – not great, but okay. Both QBs have passed 1,500-plus yards. The Bark Boys extend their winning streak. – Georgia 27, Florida 21.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
West Virginia (2-6) at #22 Houston (7-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, FS1 – West Virginia was a surprise last week. After getting blown out in four Big 12 games, the Mounties lost to TCU by only 6 points – 23-17. Something was amiss. It doesn’t look good for WVU this week. Houston is on a three-game winning streak. The Cougars have been playing well. West Virginia’s offense is only averaging 21 points a game. And the WVU defense is giving up 30 points a game. With numbers like that, you simply don’t win. Houston doesn’t have a problem – Houston 30, West Virginia 20.
Duke (4-3) at Clemson (3-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ACCN – Duke has the quarterback and the numbers to beat Clemson. Darian Mensah has passed for 2,211 yards. And the Dookies are averaging 34 points a game. Clemson only musters 26 points. The Tigers have more talent than Duke. They just haven’t played well as a team. But when they do, they are good. I don’t think Dabo Swinney would survive a home loss to Duke. That would be more than the Tiger fans could handle. Swinney survives – Clemson 27, Duke 24.
Purdue (2-6) at #21 Michigan (6-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – Purdue almost pulled it out last week. They almost won their first big Ten game. Rutgers had to rally late to beat the Boilers. Michigan won’t have to rally late, but the Boilers could give the Wolverines a battle. Purdue quarterback Ryne Browne has passed for 1,689 yards. But he can be careless with his passes. Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood has been getting better and better each week. He has passed for 1,526 yards. More dangerous for Michigan is running back Justice Haynes. He has rushed for 857 yards. Neither team is averaging a lot of points per game. But the Wolverines have a much better defense – giving up 17 points a game. The Boilers fizzle – Michigan 28, Purdue 20.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
FIU (3-4) at Missouri State (4-3) – (C-USA vs. C-USA) – 8 pm ET, Wednesday, CBSSN….
UCF (4-3) at Baylor (4-4) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPNU….
Mississippi Valley State (1-6) at Bethune-Cookman (4-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
West Florida (8-0) at Delta State (7-1) – (Gulf South vs. Gulf South) – 4 pm ET, Saturday….
Jackson State (5-2) at Florida A&M (3-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Wake Forest (5-2) at Florida state (3-4) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7:30 pm ET, ACCN….
Quotes of the Week
“What if Texas is better with Matthew Caldwell, not Arch Manning, at quarterback,” USA Today sports writer Matt Hayes, posing speculation if Manning doesn’t play this weekend.
“I’ve never made a decision based on money, nor will I. I’ve seen too many examples in life where money does not buy happiness. Jimmy Sexton (Kiffin’s agent) gets really mad when I say that,” Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin.
“No. I can tell you right now Scott Woodward will not be selecting the next coach. Hell, I’d let Donald Trump select the coach before I’d let Woodward do it,” Louisiana Governor Jeff Landry, when asked at a press conference if LSU athletic director Scott Woodward would be picking the next LSU football coach.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
No comments:
Post a Comment