CFW Week 6 Forecast – Arch comes to The Swamp
There’s a Hurricane headed for Tallahassee
October has always been my favorite month during college football season. September is to warm for college football – and too many weather delays. November is often too cold – and too many gray days. October is the heart of the college football season. The weather is generally ideal – the air smells right. October is the most common of the three months for schools to schedule their homecomings.
Saturday is the first October weekend of the 2025 college football season. We had five weekends of football in September. There will be the final five weekends to the regular season in November. The heart of this season begins this weekend with the first of four weekends in October – Week 6, Week 7, Week 8 and Week 9. Some of the best games are always played in October. And October is generally the month when we separate the good teams from the not so good teams. October just feels like football.
Aside from Miami at Florida State, there aren’t any blockbuster games this week. However, that being said, there are plenty of interesting engagements that are likely to have some wild, exciting and blockbuster endings. After all, it’s October.
Yeah, the biggie this week is Miami (4-0) at Florida State (3-1). The Canes were off last week, while the Noles stumbled at Virginia. Is there an upset pending in Tallahassee? Or will the Noles stumble again.
Miami at Florida State is one of two potentially good ACC games this week. The other one is Virginia (4-1) at Louisville (4-0). This contest has the makings of a thriller. Which team will be thrilled?
The SEC has three dandies, beginning with Vanderbilt (5-0) at Alabama (3-1). Can Vandy win two in a row over Bama? Diego Pavia vs. Ty Simpson.
Next up in the SEC is Mississippi State (4-1) at Texas A&M (4-0). Last week, Miss State took Tennessee to overtime before losing. Will the Bulldogs perform as well against the Aggies? Or will Texas A&M remain undefeated?
The third SEC encounter is an intriguing one – Texas (3-1) at Florida (1-3). Following a week off, will the Gators be rejuvenated? Will D.J. Lagway break out of his slump? And how about the exalted one – Arch Manning? Will he suffer from Swamp fever?
By the way, Arch’s uncle Eli was 2-0 against Florida, including a 20-17 Ole Miss win over Florida in The Swamp in 2003. Rockledge Gator, Bootsie, Swamp Mama and I were at that game. Conversely, Arch’s uncle Peyton (Tennessee) was 0-4 against Florida, losing twice in The Swamp – 1995 and 1997. Meanwhile, Grandfather Archie never played against Florida during his three years (1968-1970) quarterbacking Ole Miss.
The Big Ten has three games to keep an eye on. The first of the bunch is Minnesota (3-1) at Ohio State (4-0). I don’t think the Gophers will go for many touchdowns. Still, they could make the game interesting.
Washington (3-1) at Maryland (4-0) should be an interesting affair. The Huskies played reasonably well against Ohio State. We’re not really sure how good Maryland is – or isn’t. I don’t think anybody else is either. Maybe, we’ll know after this game.
And finally, in the Big Ten, Nebraska gets another shot at home against a team from Michigan – it’s Michigan State (3-1) at Nebraska (3-1). I think it’s time for Dylan Raiola and crew to put the pedal to the metal – put the butter on the Corn.
We finish up in the Big 12 where there are two games popping up on the radar. For starters, how about Texas Tech (4-0) at Houston (4-0). Is Houston for real? We know Texas Tech is. But we’re not sure about Houston. Can the Cougars step up to the occasion?
Perhaps more interesting is Iowa State (5-0) at Cincinnati (3-1). This is a dangerous road game for the Cyclones. Rocco Becht and Brendan Sorsby could put on one heck of a show. Which one will come out on top?
As we said at the beginning, Miami at Florida State may be the only blockbuster, but each of those other nine games could end up knocking our socks off.
Two other games I am curious about this week are Boise State at Notre Dame and Clemson at North Carolina. No doubt, Notre Dame will beat Boise State. But can the Broncos hang with the Irish and make it an exciting game? Clemson and Dabo Swinney have had their share of problems. Bill Belichick has had his share of problems too at North Carolina. Who will have the least amount of problems in this game?
ESPN’s College GameDay will be in Tuscaloosa, Alabama, for the Vanderbilt-Alabama game. FOX’s Big Noon Kickoff will be in Ann Arbor, Michigan for the Wisconsin-Michigan game. SEC Network’s SEC Nation will be in Gainesville, Florida, for the Texas-Florida game. ACC Network’s ACC Huddle will be in Tallahassee, Florida, for the Miami-Florida State game. Enjoy the shows.
The Top 5 teams in this week’s FCS Coaches Poll are 1. North Dakota State (4-0), 2. South Dakota State (4-0), 3. Tarleton State (5-0), 4. Montana (4-0), 5. Montana State (3-2).
Have a good weekend and enjoy the games.
Touchdown Tom
October 2, 2054
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for
Week Six’s 10 Biggest and Most Intriguing Games….and then some
GAME OF THE WEEK: 1. #3 Miami (4-0) at #18 Florida State (3-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – Was Florida State’s win over Alabama a fluke? Or was Florida State’s loss to Virginia a fluke? We’ll find out this weekend. One thing appears certain – FSU does not have a defense. Virginia revealed that problem. However, on the bright side, FSU does have an offense. You can thank Gus Malzahn for that. Malzahn masterminded that win over Alabama. And FSU’s offense played well against Virginia. Again, it’s the FSU defense that is hurting. And that’s where Carson Beck and Miami have an advantage over the Noles – a big advantage. Beck will pick FSU’s defense apart. To counter that, FSU quarterback Tommy Castellanos has to pick Miami’s defense apart. That won’t be an easy task. Still, it’s a rivalry game. Anything can happen. The Canes blow Tallahassee – Miami 34, Florida State 27.
RUNNER-UP: 2. #16 Vanderbilt (5-0) at #10 Alabama (3-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ABC – How shocked we all were when Vanderbilt beat Alabama last year. I’m still pinching myself. Obviously, there will be a revenge factor in this game. The Tide will be out for revenge. I’m thinking Alabama quarterback Ty Simpson is on a roll. That’s not good for Vandy. But Vandy quarterback Diego Pavia will be out to prove that last year was no mistake. The Commodores can score but their defense is shaky. The Tide offense should roll. Not a good day to have your anchor down – Alabama 38, Vanderbilt 20.
REST OF THE BEST: 3. #28 Mississippi State (4-1) at #6 Texas A&M (4-0) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, SECN – At preseason, Mississippi State was supposed to be the worst team in the SEC. The Bulldogs haven’t been playing like the worst team in the SEC. But they are up against a team that is playing like one of the best, if not the best, teams in the SEC. Texas A&M was supposed to be good. But not this good. Still, the season is early. The Aggies defense will be too much for Miss State. Marcel Reid and Le’Veon Moss have a good day. Blake Shapen hopes to have a good day. But he doesn’t – Texas A&M 27, Mississippi State 9.
4. Minnesota (3-1) at #1 Ohio State (4-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, NBC – Minnesota has been playing pretty good football, but not good enough to compete with Ohio State. The Gophers want to win. Realistically, they want to make a good showing. Washington held the Buckeyes to 24 points last week. Ohio State will want to exceed 24 points this week. And the Buckeyes will – Ohio State 31, Minnesota 9.
5. #11 Texas Tech (4-0) at Houston (4-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Texas Tech is definitely a good football team. Just how good, remains to be seen. But the Red Raiders are good. Houston is undefeated. Not so sure how good Houston is. The Cougars did have a good win over Colorado. They were shaky last week, beating Oregon state in overtime. Texas Tech is stacked at the quarterback position – Behren Morton and Will Hammond. Houston has a good quarterback too – former Texas A&M QB Connor Weighman. Home field will help the Cougars, but not enough – Texas Tech 35, Houston 17.
6. #14 Iowa State (5-0) at Cincinnati (3-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Can you believe Cincinnati is favored in this game? Just by 2 points, but still the Bearcats are favored. That surprises me. At preseason, many had Cincinnati as one of the bottom feeders in the Big 12. Both teams had excellent quarterbacks – Rocco Becht for Iowa State and Bredan Sorsby for Cincinnati. Both have passed for more than 1,000 yards this season. The Cyclones probably have the better running game. Cy makes the Bearcats go sigh – Iowa State 33, Cincinnati 28.
7. #24 Virginia (4-1) at #30 Louisville (4-0) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 – Both teams had close wins last week. Virginia upset Florida State in overtime. Louisville rallied to beat Pitt by a touchdown. Virginia’s fate depends on how well quarterback Chandler Morris plays. If he is on, watch out. Louisville has a good quarterback too – Miller Moss. Louisville’s close win last week may have been a wake up call for the Cardinals. Virginia may still be celebrating its win last week. The Cardinals fly high – Louisville 34, Virginia 30.
8. Washington (3-1) at #33 Maryland (4-0) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, BTN – Maryland has been a surprise. When will their luck run out? It won’t, as long as quarterback Malik Washington keeps playing well. He has passed for more than 1,000 yards. Washington has a good quarterback too – Demond Williams. The Huskies probably have the better running game. Washington sacks Washington – Washington 30, Maryland 28.
9. Michigan State (3-1) at Nebraska (3-1) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 4 pm ET, Saturday, FS1 – What’s with all the Michigan’s? Nebraska just played Michigan at home. Now Michigan State comes calling. There was a week off between the two. That was probably a good thing for the Huskers. Time to get their act back together following the loss to the Wolverines. Nebraska should find the Spartans easier than the Wolverines. Michigan State’s defense is giving up 29 points a game. Nebraska’s offense should have a heyday. In Nebraska, that’s a fodder day. The Huskers fodder the Spartans – Nebraska 34, Michigan State 17.
10. #9 Texas (3-1) at Florida (1-3) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Last year, following a week off, Florida was 4-5 and up against LSU. The Tigers were heavily favored. Florida not only beat LSU, but also went on to win four-straight games. The last team the Gators played before that week off was Texas. This year, following a week off, Florida is 1-3. And who is up next for Florida – Texas. The Longhorns are heavily favored. Can this be the start of a four-game winning streak for the Gators? Well, probably not. But maybe, just maybe Billy Napier and the Gators got their act together over the break. Do you believe in coincidences? Sometimes, but not this time – Texas 27, Florida 20.
YE OLDE STOMPING GROUNDS:
West Virginia (2-3) at #23 BYU (4-0) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 10:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN – The Mountaineers got beat by one team from Utah last week. This week they are going to get beat worse by another team from Utah. Out of failure, injury and desperation, the Mountaineers are on their third quarterback. Maybe the third time will be a charm. I doubt it. BYU plays better offense and better defense than WVU. That’s not a good sign. WVU is 0-2 in Big 12 play and both opponents scored 41 or more points on the Eers. How many points will BYU score? How about – BYU 45, West Virginia 14.
Duke (3-2) at California (4-1) – (ACC vs. ACC) – 10:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN – Somebody lit a fire under the Dookies last week. They beat Syracuse, 38-3. The Dookies are on the road again this week. They hope that fire is still going. Cal is off to a good start. Duke has had tougher competition. Duke quarterback Darian Mensah is one of the top passing quarterbacks in the country. Cal can be dangerous at home. The Devils love danger – Duke 31, California 24.
Kentucky (2-2) at #12 Georgia (3-1) – (SEC vs. SEC) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, ABC – Georgia got spanked last week. This week, it’s the Dawgs who should do the spanking. Plain and simple, Kentucky is not a good team. The Wildcats have no offense. Georgia will use Kentucky as a scrimmage game to prepare for Auburn. Uga loves to chase Cats – Georgia 30, Kentucky 10.
#22 Illinois (4-1) at Purdue (2-2) – (Big Ten vs. Big Ten) – 12 noon ET, Saturday, BTN – Illinois won a close game last week – very close. Purdue had the week off. The Boilers may be rejuvenated, while the Banned Indians may be worn out. An upset could be on the horizon. Illinois already lost to one team from Indiana. That was a bad loss. They don’t want to lose to another team from Indiana. The Boilers overheat – Illinois 31, Purdue 20.
ELSEWHERE AROUND FLORIDA:
Charlotte (1-3) at #26 South Florida (3-1) – (AC vs. AC) – 7 pm ET, Friday, ESPN2….
Davidson (1-3) at Stetson (1-4) – (Pioneer vs. Pioneer) – 1 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
West Florida (4-0) at Northeastern State (2-2) – (Gulf South vs. MIAA) – 2 pm ET, Saturday….
Bethune-Cookman (2-3) at Alabama State (3-1) – (SWAC vs. SAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
Florida A&M (1-3) at Mississippi Valley State (0-4) – (SWAC vs. SWAC) – 3 pm ET, Saturday….
FIU (2-2) at Connecticut (3-2) – (C-USA vs. Ind) – 3:30 pm ET, Saturday, CBSSN….
Florida Atlantic (1-3) at Rice (3-2) – (AC vs. AC) – 7 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN+….
Kansas (3-2) at UCF (3-1) – (Big 12 vs. Big 12) – 7:30 pm ET, Saturday, ESPN2 –
Quotes of the Week
“In my opinion, the dynasties are over. Alabama with Coach Saban and then Kirby at Georgia, where they had those rosters year in and year out and there would be a bunch of wins by 30 points in the conference (SEC), those days are gone. You’re going to have really good teams going 8-4 because we’re going to play nine conference games, including five on the road. The conference has never been this balanced and it never used to have Texas and Oklahoma, two top teams and two of the hardest places in the country to play. My concern for the programs and for the coaches is that fans aren’t going to be able to get used to the numbers being different, the ins and the losses, Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin, on the impact of the larger SEC and the nine-game conference schedule.
“I don’t know what they’re doing. I just focus on us. But I know we’ve got to bring it. That’s for sure. If we play our game, it won’t be close,” Vanderbilt quarterback Diego Pavia, on the upcoming Alabama game.
“Bill Belichick is back-page news,” CBS Sports writer Brad Crawford.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
The next posting of CFW – CFW Week 6 Results – will be released on Monday morning, October 6.
