CFW Week 20 Forecast – NIU leaving MAC for MWC
CFP semifinal games have
the potential to be classics
We’re down to the final four of the College Football Playoff and it all begins tonight in the Orange Bowl – Notre Dame vs. Penn State. The final four continues tomorrow night in the Cotton Bowl Classic – Ohio State vs. Texas. Notre Dame and Penn State lucked out. The weather will be pleasant in Miami Gardens, Florida. Ohio State and Texas aren’t so lucky. Near freezing temperatures and snow are forecast for Arlington, Texas. The good news: the game will be indoors.
For what it is worth, Notre Dame is a 2-point favorite over Penn State. And according to ESPN analysts, Notre Dame is a 58.5% favorite to win. If Notre Dame’s defense plays as well as it did against Georgia, the Irish should win.
The game could come down to the play of the two quarterbacks – Notre Dame’s Riley Leonard and Penn State’s Drew Allar. If Notre Dame is to win, Leonard needs to pass better than he did against Georgia. In that game, Leonard only passed for 90 yards and only averaged 3.8 yards per completion. Then again, he was up against a good Georgia defense.
If Penn State is to win, Allar needs to have a better completion rate than he had against Boise State. In that game, Allar only completed 52% of his passes. And Boise State had one of the worst pass defenses in the country.
Before transferring to Notre Dame, Riley Leonard had three seasons at Duke. The 6-4 senior was born in Mount Pleasant, South Carolina. When he was in kindergarten, Leonard’s family moved to Fairhope, Alabama, where he grew up. He graduated from Fairhope High School and had offers to play quarterback at Duke, Nebraska, Syracuse and Tulane. Leonard was also a good basketball player in high school. He had basketball offers from St. Mary’s, North Alabama, Samford and Missouri State. Leonard chose football and Duke.
Drew Allar was born and raised in Medina, Ohio. He is the tallest of the four quarterbacks in the semifinals. The 6-5, junior is the only one of the four semifinal quarterbacks who has not transferred in his college career. His senior year at Medina High School, Allar was named Ohio’s Mr. Football.
In Friday night’s game, Ohio State is a 6-point favorite over Texas. However, according to ESPN analysts, Texas is a 50.6 percent favorite to win. That’s a pretty close margin considering the momentum Ohio State seems to have going – a 25-point win over Tennessee and a 20-point win over Oregon. The Buckeyes have been on a mission since their season-ending loss to Michigan.
Ohio State quarterback Will Howard certainly has the incentive to win this game. The 6-4 senior was 0-4 against Texas during his years at Kansas State. Following his fourth season with the Wildcats, Howard transferred to Ohio State for his final season of football. Born in West Chester, Pennsylvania, Howard grew up in Downingtown, Pennsylvania, where he graduated from Downingtown West High School. His senior year, he was named the Pennsylvania Player of the Year. In addition to Kansas State, Howard had offers from Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers and Kansas. Like Leonard, he was also a good basketball player in high school.
If Texas is to win this game, quarterback Quinn Ewers may have to play his best game of the season – much better than he has played in recent games. A native of San Antonio, Texas, Ewers’ family moved to Southlake, Texas when he was eight. He graduated from Southlake Carroll High School, where he was also a good baseball player. Ewers, a 6-2 junior, had an interesting beginning to his college football career, especially when you consider who the Longhorns are playing. Out of high school, the Texas quarterback originally signed with and enrolled at Ohio State. However, after one semester in Columbus, Ewers transferred to Texas.
And, of course, these two games could easily come down to the running games. That’s where Penn State and Ohio State have the edge. Then there is the other quarterback angle with Texas. Will Arch Manning see any action? Could Penn State tight end Tyler Warren be a deciding factor for the Nittany Lions?
I’m thinking the Notre Dame-Penn State crowd in the Orange Bowl will be about 50-50. However, in the Cotton Bowl, you have to believe Texas will have a strong crowd advantage. That could be a plus for the Longhorns. But if Ohio State starts out the way the Buckeyes did against Tennessee and Oregon, the Texas crowd will quickly be silenced.
If Ohio State and Penn State both win, it not only will be an all-Big Ten championship game, but also the championship game will be a rematch. During the season, Ohio State beat Penn State, 20-13, in State College. An all-Big Ten championship game will surely rankle SEC fans. Even more so when you consider that an SEC team was not in the championship game last year.
So many angles to the two semifinal games. The wait is almost over.
Mid-American Conference member Northern Illinois is leaving the MAC and will join the Mountain West Conference for football only on July 1, 2026. NIU will join either the Missouri Valley Conference, the Ohio Valley Conference or the Horizon League for all other sports.
Iowa State coach Matt Campbell is expected to interview with the Chicago Bears.
Attendance at this year’s Duke’s Mayo Bowl between Minnesota and Virginia Tech was the lowest in the bowl’s 23-year history. The game drew 31,027 fans. The previous low was 32,000-plus at the Texas A&M-Wake Forest game in 2017.
Singer-songwriter, guitarist and record producer Peter Yarrow, of the folk group Peter, Paul and Mary died on Tuesday. Peter, Paul and Mary are famous for such hits as “If I Had A Hammer,” “Puff The Magic Dargon,” “Blowin’ In the Wind,” “Don’t Think Twice It’s All Right,” “I Dig Rock And Roll Music” and “Leaving On A Jet Plane,” among others. From 1962 to 1972, the group placed 23 songs on Billboard’s Hot 100 chart. Yarrow is the second member of the group who has died. Mary Travers passed away at 72 in 2009. The third member of the trio – Noel Paul Stookey – is still active today at 87. A native of New York City, Peter Yarrow was 86.
Touchdown Tom
January 9, 2025
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
FCS Championship
North Dakota State 35, Montana State 32 – Attendance in Frisco: 18,005
Touchdown Tom’s Predictions for the College Football Playoff (Semifinals)
Notre Dame (13-1) vs. Penn State (13-2) – (Ind. vs. Big Ten) – College Football Playoff Semifinal – (Orange Bowl – Miami Gardens, Florida) – 7:30 pm ET, Thursday, ESPN (Gametime temp and weather forecast: 59 degrees and clear) – In the final CFP rankings, Penn State was 4th, and Notre Dame was 5th. In the CFP bracket, Penn State was seeded 6th and Notre Dame was seeded 7th. The two teams have been bunched up against each other in the rankings and in the seedings. Now, in the semifinals, they are about to play each other. Both are high-scoring teams on offense. Notre Dame averages 38 points a game; Penn State averages 34. Both teams have good defenses. Notre Dame allows 14 points a game; Penn State allows 16. Penn State is stronger at the running game. The Nittany Lions have better running backs, with Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen. The two teams are roughly equal at the quarterback position. Neither has a spectacular quarterback. Both have quarterbacks who are stable and solid – Drew Allar for Penn State and Riley Leonard for Notre Dame. Both completed 67% of their passes this season. Leonard only had 6 interceptions. Allar only had 7. Notre Dame, basically, played no strong teams during the regular season. The Irish do have good wins over Indiana and Georgia in the playoff. Indiana and Georgia were both good teams. Penn State played three strong teams during the season – Illinois, Ohio State and Oregon. The Nittany Lions lost to Ohio State and Oregon. In the playoff, Penn State has good wins over SMU and Boise State. However, SMU and Boise State may have been the two weakest teams in the playoff. Penn State and Notre Dame had one common opponent this season – USC. Both played the Trojans in the Coliseum in Los Angeles. I’m not one to compare scores, but on October 12, Penn State beat USC, 33-30 (OT). On November 30, Notre Dame beat the Trojans, 49-35. James Franklin doesn’t understand Gaelic – Notre Dame 24, Penn State 21.
Ohio State (12-2) vs. Texas (13-2) – (Big Ten vs. SEC) – College Football Playoff Semifinal – (Cotton Bowl Classic – Arlington, Texas) – 7:30 pm ET, Friday, ESPN (Gametime temp and weather forecast: 34 degrees and snow) – I’m sure the roof will be closed on AT&T Stadium. In the final CFP rankings, Texas was 3rd and Ohio State was 6th. In the CFP bracket, Texas was seeded 5th and Ohio State was seeded 8th. However, in the playoff, Ohio State has been the more impressive team to date. Texas definitely needs to step up its game tomorrow night. Both teams are strong on offense. Ohio State averages 36 points a game; Texas averages 34. Both are strong on defense. Ohio State allows 12 points a game; Texas allows 15. Ohio State is stronger at the running game. The Buckeyes have better running backs with TreVeyon Henderson and Quinshon Judkins. Although, Texas’ Quintrevion Wisner has been improving. Both teams have good quarterbacks – Will Howard for Ohio State and Quin Ewers for Texas. Howard completed 73% of his passes, throwing 9 interceptions. Ewers has been shaky at times. He completed 67% of his passes and threw 11 interceptions. Texas only played one strong team during the season – Georgia. In fact, the Longhorns played Georgia twice and lost both times. Texas has been a little shaky in its two playoff wins over Clemson and Arizona State. Ohio State played three strong teams during the season – Oregon, Penn state and Indiana. The Buckeyes lost to Oregon and beat Penn State and Indiana. In the playoff, Ohio State has two impressive wins over Tennessee and Oregon. Ohio State and Texas had one common opponent during the season – Michigan. Again, I’m not one to compare scores but it is always fun to throw it into the mix. On September 17, Texas beat Michigan in Ann Arbor, 31-12. On November 30, Ohio State lost to Michigan in Columbus, 13-10. The Buckeyes mess with Texas – Ohio State 34, Texas 27.
Quotes of the Week
“It should be consistent across college football. This is no knock at Notre Dame, but I think everybody should be in a conference. I think everybody should play a conference championship game, or nobody should play a conference championship game. I think everybody should play the same number of conference games, Penn State coach James Franklin.
“Win or lose, Ryan Day should leave Ohio State,” CBS Sports writer Dennis Dodd.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(The next CFW – Week 20 Results – will be posted on Monday morning, January 13.)
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