CFW Week 20 Forecast – Fate of the Group of Five coaches
Will it be Karma for the Pac-12?
But, in future thinking, is it an all-Big Ten championship?
The Washington-Michigan national championship game will be played Monday night in Houston’s NRG Stadium. If the game lives up to its hype and is close, this will be the best college football playoff in the 10-year history of the event. Michigan is a 3.5 favorite.
In the semifinal games earlier this week, both came down to the final play of the game before they were decided. In the end, Michigan beat Alabama by seven points in overtime (27-20), and Washington beat Texas by six points (37-31).
In each of the past nine playoffs, we have never had three close games. At least one, if not two or three of the games were blowouts. Last year, the semifinals were close, but the final was a rout.
It’s interesting if you look at this year’s playoff from next year’s perspective. If you do, there were two teams from the Big Ten and two teams from the SEC in the CFP. On July 1, Washington will join Michigan in the Big Ten and Texas will join Alabama in the SEC. That being said, you could look at Monday’s national championship game as an all-Big Ten battle.
They say there is something highly satisfying when karma strikes. Well, with this being the last year of the Pac-12 Conference, it would be karma for the Pac-12 if Washington wins. Getting a national championship in the last year of the conference, as we have known it, would be highly satisfying and oddly unique. The Pac-12 all but disintegrates on July 1, 2024, as it becomes the Pac-2.
Something else that is strangely unique is the outcome of the coaches of the Group of Five teams who have appeared in each of the New Year’s Six bowls.
As the highest-ranked Group of Five team in a New Year’s Six bowl, Liberty was a big disappointment this year – definitely a disappointment to the Group of Five conferences. Liberty lost to Oregon, 45-6 in the Fiesta Bowl. That’s the worst performance by a Group of Five team in the 10-year history of CFP’s New Year’s Six bowls.
During the 10 years, the Group of Five is 4-5 against the Power Five in their New Year's Six bowl competition, and 0-1 in their college football playoff competition. Last year, Tulane beat USC, 46-45 in the Cotton Bowl. At the end of this season, Tulane coach Willie Fritz accepted the head coaching position at Houston. Fritz needs to beware.
The Group of Five won the first two competitions against the Power Five in 2014 and 2015. That first year, Boise State beat Arizona, 38-30, in the Fiesta Bowl. Boise State was coached by Bryan Harsin. A few years later, Harsin became the head coach at Auburn. The Auburn gig did not work out well for Harsin.
The next year, 2015, Houston knocked off Florida State, 38-24, in the Peach Bowl. Houston was coached by Tom Herman. Two years later Herman became the head coach at Texas. The Texas gig did not work out well for Herman.
Then, in 2017, UCF downed Auburn, 34-27, in the Peach Bowl. UCF was coached by Scott Frost. After that game in 2017, Frost accepted the head coaching job at Nebraska. The Nebraska gig did not work out well for Frost.
There seems to be a pattern here. The coach who beats the Power Five team in a New Year’s Six bowl gets hired by a Power Five school. But he doesn’t do well at the Power Five school and gets fired. That’s why Willie Fritz needs to beware.
By the way, in that UCF-Auburn game, the Tigers were coached by none other than Gus Malzahn. Three years later, Malzahn was fired by Auburn and hired by UCF. Malzahn just completed his third season with the Knights.
Four of the five losses to the Power Five were much closer than Liberty’s 39-point loss to Oregon. In 2016, Western Michigan lost to Wisconsin, 24-16, in the Cotton Bowl. Western Michigan was coached by P.J. “Row Your Boat” Fleck. After the 2016 game, Fleck was named the head coach at Minnesota, where he just completed his seventh season with the Gophers.
In 2018, UCF fell to LSU, 40-32, in the Fiesta Bowl. UCF was coached by Josh Heupel. Three years later, Heupel became the head coach at Tennessee, where he just completed his third season with the Vols.
The following year, 2019, Memphis lost to Penn State, 53-39, in the Cotton Bowl. Memphis was coached by Mike Norvell. After that game, Norvell became the head coach at Florida State, where he just completed his fourth season with the Noles.
And in 2020, Cincinnati fell to Georgia, 24-21, in the Peach Bowl. The following year, in 2021, Cincinnati became the first and only Group of Five team to make the college football playoff. In the semifinal game that year, in the Cotton Bowl, the Bearcats lost to Alabama, 27-6. Cincinnati was coached by Luke Fickell. Fickell just completed his first season coaching Wisconsin.
There seems to be a pattern here. The coach who loses to the Power Five team in a New Year’s Six bowl gets hired by a Power Five school and succeeds.
So that says Liberty coach Jamey Chadwell will eventually get hired by a Power Five school and succeed. Stay tuned!
In retrospect, Liberty, like Florida State, had no business being in a New Year’s Six bowl. But rules are rules, and you have to follow them. Liberty and Florida State should have been pitted against each other in something like the Myrtle Beach Bowl, the Camellia Bowl or the Toastery Bowl. Surely, I gest.
Speaking of Liberty, Flames quarterback Kaidon Salter has entered the transfer portal. I’m sure Kalter would like to land at a Power Five school, if not a stronger Group of Five school. He has the numbers to get picked up by a Power Five school. This past season, Kalter passed for 2,876 yards and rushed for 1,089 yards. Those are impressive numbers. However, he wasn’t always playing against impressive competition.
Another quarterback who entered the transfer portal has found his new home. Former Arkansas quarterback K.J. Jefferson has transferred to UCF. And former Kansas State quarterback Will Howard announced he is transferring to Ohio State.
LSU coach Brian Kelly fired four members of his defensive staff, including defensive coordinator/linebackers coach Matt House. Also getting the pink slip were safeties coach Kerry Cooks, cornerbacks coach Robert Steeples and defensive line coach Jimmy Lindsey. LSU’s defense in 2023 was 108th in the country, giving up 417 yards a game.
Likewise, North Carolina coach Mack Brown fired two members of his defensive staff. Tar Heels defensive coordinator Gene Chizik was terminated, along with defensive line coach Tim Cross. In 2023, North Carolina’s defense was 98th in the country, giving up 404 yards per game.
And Oklahoma coach Brent Venables fired his defensive coordinator Ted Roof and replaced him with Jacksonville State defensive coordinator Zac Alley.
Former NFL quarterback Frank Ryan died on New Year’s Day. Ryan played 13 seasons in the NFL for the Los Angeles Rams (1958-1961), the Cleveland Browns (1962-1968) and the Washington Redskins (1969-1970). He led the Browns to the NFL title in 1964. Ryan played college football for Rice, where he graduated with a degree in Physics. During the offseason in the NFL, he obtained his PhD. After his NFL career, he became a professor at Case Western Reserve University in Cleveland. Sportswriter Red Smith once wrote that the Browns’ offense had a quarterback who understood Einstein’s theory of relativity and 10 teammates who didn’t know there was one. Later Ryan went to work for the U.S. government in Washington, DC. He then became the athletic director at Yale and also taught mathematics there, eventually becoming a vice president at Yale. He finished his institutional career as a professor at Rice. After teaching at Rice, he became a director at several U.S. companies. A native of Fort Worth, Texas, Frank Beall Ryan was 87.
Touchdown Tom
January 5, 2024
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
(Note: The next CFW – CFW Week 20 Result – will be posted Tuesday morning, January 9, the morning after the national championship game.)
Touchdown Tom’s Prediction for Monday’s National Championship Game
Washington (14-0) vs. Michigan (14-0) – (Pac-12 vs. Big Ten) – 7:30 pm ET, Monday, ESPN – With both teams undefeated, this has to be the best national championship we could have hoped for. Not only are Washington and Michigan undefeated, but also, they are the only undefeated teams left. As we well know, Florida State and Liberty both lost their bowl games. So that leaves the Huskies and the Wolverines to fight it out for perfection. Both teams generally have no problem scoring. Michigan averages 36 points a game and Washington averages about 38 points a game. They say that Michigan can only run. The Wolverines can’t pass. But Michigan averages 60 more yards a game passing than running. Washington, meanwhile, is definitely a passing team. The Huskies are the No. 1 passing team in the country. The Huskies average 350 yards a game through the air and only 124 yards on the ground. Michigan is definitely the stronger defensive team. The Wolverines hold opponents to 10 points a game. Michigan is No. 1 in the country in total yards allowed (244.5 yards) and No. 2 in the country in passing yards allowed (150 yards). But can Michigan’s defense contain Husky quarterback Michael Penix. He is the No. 1 passer in the country, passing for 4,648 yards this season. Washington’s defense gives up 24 points a game. That’s an advantage to Michigan. So, it will be the Purple and Gold against the Blue and Maize in the title game. Harry the Husky against…., against....oh that’s right, Michigan doesn’t have a mascot. You can’t win the national championship without a mascot – Washington 29, Michigan 26.
Quotes of the Week
“That’s the worst offensive performance I think I’ve seen Alabama have in my adult life,” ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky, on Alabama’s loss to Michigan.
“I’d say 80 percent of the teams in college football steal signs. It’s just a thing about football. It’s been around for years,” Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Touchdown Tom
https://collegefootballweek.blogspot.com
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